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Cabinet requests Parliament to allow imposing moratorium on external debt repayments
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 May 2015 · 1 response

The Cabinet intends to submit to the parliament a draft law which should allow the Cabinet to impose moratorium on external debt repayments, media reported today. This move followed a series of messages from Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko about complicated process of negotiations. Does it mean ...

A Lull in the Barrage of Bad News
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Domestic tensions eased significantly in March and April. While economic problems and the military threat are still on the agenda, a dearth of breaking news from the Eastern front, and a strengthening of the hryvnia (to 22 per $1, from 30 in February) relieved the generally depr...

Akhmetov arranges ‘miners’ protests’
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Apr 2015

Last week we witnessed very interesting event. On Thursday April 23 Kyiv was flooded with thousands of people of strange appearance which called themselves miners. From news releases we learned that ‘miners started their strike against closing of state coal-mines’. Activists and journalists tried...

Challenging Times
UKRAINE · Forecast · 31 Mar 2015

Executive Summary “Debt operations,” an overly optimistic spending plan, tough reforms, the threat emanating from the east and intensified infighting between various Ukrainian factions are all part of Ukraine’s new reality. While these things don’t stoke optimism, there are nonetheless positive d...

Poroshenko vs. Kolomoyskiy: intensified confrontation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Mar 2015

Over the last few days in Ukraine intensified conflict between President Petro Poroshenko and Dnipropetrovsk oblast governor Igor Kolomoyskiy. The point is that the authorities finally dared to overtook control over two state companies (Uktransnafta (oil transit) and Ukrnafta (oil and gas extract...

IMF gives us a chance: $5 billion in first installment and demand to keep moving with reforms
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Mar 2015

Well, the IMF approved only $5 billion as first installment instead of $10 billion Ukrainian authorities demanded. Against the backdrop of aggravated internal fights between Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk (and growing rumors about the Cabinet reshuffle) this decision was quite logical. Advance payment ...

Parliament approves budget amendments which should unlock the IMF loan
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Mar 2015

On March 2 Ukrainian parliament approved changes to the spending plan 2015. Revenues’ target for state budget was set 37% higher than actual collections in 2014 (UAH 498.2 billion vs. UAH 363.6 billion). Central budget deficit was also increased to UAH 76.3 billion which is 4.1% of GDP. Combined ...

Cabinet dismissal under discussion
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2015

After new wave of hryvnia decline the Cabinet of Yetsenyuk is under attack. Budget deficit and hryvnia printing for budget needs were named as the key reasons for hryvnia plunging below 30 hryvnia per $1. On Feb 28 I was invited for a meeting with prime-minister and minister of economy. Near 10 e...

Off the Cliff
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Ukraine’s situation has deteriorated. Despite widely expected budget cuts, which should have secured a stable hryvnia, the authorities have envisaged an overoptimistic spending plan for 2015, which presumes heavy hryvnia printing. To make matters worse, it sounds as though the I...

Crazy budget disregard IMF staff-level agreement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Feb 2015

On Feb. 14 the Cabinet approved revised draft budget 2015. So far we know only few numbers but it looks like the suggested spending plan did not experience any austerity measures. In particular, the authorities outlined central budget revenues target at UAH 498 billion which is UAH 134.4 billion ...

IMF staff-level agreement reached: time to deliver budget cuts
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Feb 2015

The IMF mission has reached a staff-level agreement with the Ukrainian government for a new economic reform program under an extended facility fund format. Within this program Ukraine is expected to receive $17.5 billion from the IMF and extra funds from other international donors. No doubt it is...

Central bank abandons indicative exchange rate regime
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Feb 2015

The Central bank plans to cancel current exchange rate regime when ‘legal’ exchange rate is 'indicated' every day during auctions. The regime was introduced on November 5th 2014, after parliament elections when the authorities realized that they do not have money for large-scale FX interventions....

The IMF mission to stay one more week in Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jan 2015

The IMF mission, which arrived in Kyiv on January 12 and was expected to finalize its work on January 29, will stay one more week in Kyiv, media reported. In our opinion it is a positive signal. After crazy budget 2015 the authorities approved in late December 2014 it is good the parties still ha...

The Future Hangs on Budget Revision
UKRAINE · Forecast · 13 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Though the year has begun, it’s still hard to envision how the next 12 months will unfold. Russian aggression is still on the agenda, but the core troublemaker right now is Ukraine’s 2015 budget. Disregarding the need to comply with the IMF austerity measures, the Ukrainian auth...

Budget approved but… to be revised within a month
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Dec 2014

Last night parliament approved spending plan 2015. In essence we cannot even comment on the document which was approved since none ever seen the one (according to MPs). We assume the document is close to the spending plan initially submitted to the parliament but with some changes MPs discussed. ...

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