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War Aggravates Economic Problems
UKRAINE · Report · 26 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Intensified fighting around Donetsk and Luhansk triggered a 12.1% y/y industrial output slump in July.The Luhansk oblast reported a 56% y/y decline in industrial production, while the Donetsk oblast’s output fell 28.5% y/y that month.In August, military forces intensified their ...

President dissolves Parliament; early elections appointed for October 26
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Aug 2014

Yesterday late at night President Petro Poroshenko dissolved the parliament. New elections have been appointed for October 26. The decision was in line with legislation since a month ago ruling parliament coalition stopped its activity. This step was widely expected in society since many MPs from...

Industry: Slumps 12.1% in July
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Aug 2014

In July industrial output fell 12.1% y/y twice as fast than a month ago (-5.0% y/y in June). Stronger contraction of metals’ output (-12.3% y/y vs. 5.6% y/y at the prior month), mining (-12.1% y/y vs. -4.8% y/y in June) and utilities (-7.8% y/y vs. -1.5% y/y) were the main reasons for sliding rat...

Parliament approves budget amendments, Yatsenyuk remains PM
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

Today parliament approved two important decisions. The first one was approval of budget amendments which are critical for further IMF cooperation. The second one – MPs declined Arseniy Yatsenyuk resignation. Against this backdrop, we can claim that recent political crisis was resolved. Important,...

GDP falls 4.7% y/y in 2Q 2014
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

In 2Q 2014 Ukraine’s GDP declined 4.7% y/y State Statistics Office reported on July 30. Also the authorities estimated GDP sliding 5.9% y/y in June vs. 4.9% y/y in May. For the first half of the year GDP was estimated to fall 3.0% y/y, according to Minecon. By the end of the year the Cabinet anti...

Punishing Russia, without Triggering WWIII
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Despite all Ukraine’s difficulties, the latest the collapse of its ruling coalition, it looks as though the country is winning the war with Russia in terms of international community support. It’s a challenging conflict, and the renewed internal political fight in Kyiv doesn’t b...

Yatsenyuk refuses to be acting Prime Minister, Volodymyr Groysman takes the lead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jul 2014

According to the law the Cabinet after resignation continues its work as acting Cabinet till the moment the parliament approves the decision and appoints new Prime Minister. Under current circumstances Arseniy Yatsenyuk refused to continue his work and Volodymyr Groysman, Deputy Prime Minister fo...

Yatsenyuk Resigns on Failed Attempt to Increase Taxes for Oligarchs
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Jul 2014

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigned after coalition was dissolved. This move in light of tense situation at the east might look strange. But only from the first glance. Few days ago after the IMF mission left Kyiv the Cabinet came out with the proposal of budget revision. And the main role ...

Army takes decisive advance on terrorists
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Jul 2014

Over the last few days Ukrainian army is making strong advance on separatists. From messages we have the picture is not complete but we know that the army has finally encircled the territory and broken separatists into three group. Two of them (near Donetsk and near Lysychansk) seem to be totally...

The Central bank increases discount rate 3 ppt up to 12.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jul 2014

The National Bank of Ukraine today increased discount rate by 3 ppt up to 12.5% from 9.5% previously. The overnight refinancing rate was increased to 17.5% from 14.5%. The Central bank targets to reduce inflation rates, according to the explanatory note of the regulator. In fact, we see this move...

Clashes at the Russian Border Become Tougher
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jul 2014

Over the last few days clashes at the border with Russia became really tough. After surrender of Slovyansk, the city which Moscow propaganda made a symbol of ‘rebel’, Kremlin intensified its activity in this undeclared war. Ukrainian army is trying to encircle the region and to close the border. ...

Terrorists left Sloviansk, activists report
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Jul 2014

Activists report that separatists left Sloviansk, the town which was the strongest point of resistance at the region. Terrorists made the step after Sloviansk was totally taken into circle by Ukrainian army. If this information is true, it is a very good news witnessing substantial progress in mi...

One-sided ‘truce’ ends: martial law expected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jul 2014

On June 30, late in the night president Poroshenko cancelled one-sided ‘truce’ with terrorists. Military actions resumed promptly. It was the only correct decision in the situation Ukraine faces now. Russia used the ‘truce’ only to bring more tanks, artillery and ammunition to separatists’ groups...

One-sided ‘truce’: first blunder of Poroshenko?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jun 2014

Last week president Poroshenko announced truce for the sake of peaceful resolution of conflict at the East. In general, this step was perceived skeptically (just as a nod towards the West) since none believes in Kremlin’s desire to resume peace. Putin wants Ukraine to be destabilized and peaceful...

Winning the War is the Only Way Out
UKRAINE · Forecast · 24 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Ukraine’s future now depends upon a rapid resolution to the military conflict with Russia.The situation is still very dicey, but at least three developments suggest Ukraine is well positioned to win.First, the separatists continue to lose support in the region, due to their blat...

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