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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The new emergency relief and monetary normalization
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Feb 2021

​The first point we analyze in this report is the need for the new edition of the Emergency Relief program to be much less generous than in 2020, which had a price tag of 4% of GDP. In 2020 it expanded the retail sales and attenuated the GDP decline. But in face of the contagion acceleration and ...

Priorities and Uncertainties: Fiscal and Monetary Policies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Feb 2021

Brazil continues to be under the influence of forces acting in opposite directions – the widening and increasing pace of vaccination and a rising number of Covid cases – whose result will determine how much the economy decelerates in the first quarter of 2021. In this circumstance, a few days ago...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Feb 2021

The evolution of the pandemic continues largely to dictate the country’s economic and political situation. The new upsurge of contagion and rising death rate, partly due to mutations of the coronavirus and partly because of the absence of a national plan to deal with the pandemic, has brought the...

Monetary Policy and Its Limits
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2021

At its last meeting, the COPOM deleted the forward guidance – the commitment to keep the SELIC rate at 2% for an extended period – meaning that as soon as deemed necessary, the monetary authorities will proceed with monetary normalization. The current directors of the Central Bank have given stro...

The Controversy over the Appreciation of the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2021

The financial market has a tendency to forecast that the Real will get stronger in 2021. We don’t deny that international causes might lead to this result. The elevation of international commodity prices is producing gains in the terms of trade, causing the real exchange rate to appreciate, and t...

While the Government Blunders, Monetary Policy is Doing its Part, but Has Reached its Limit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jan 2021

In our opinion, at its meeting this week the COPOM will maintain the SELIC rate at 2%, but will exclude the commitment to keep it at that level for an extended period (forward guidance). Since in real terms, the basic interest rate is lower than the neutral rate, monetary policy will continue act...

The Worsening Pandemic and Uncertainty over the Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2021

We start by urging those who typically attribute “subjective probabilities” to the occurrence of events to read the book Radical Uncertainty, written by Mervin King (former governor of the Bank of England) and John Kay. They recommend that when faced with a situation of radical uncertainty – as i...

A Positive Scenario "ma non troppo" for 2021
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 18 Dec 2020

For a brief period (2 quarters at most) the pandemic shut down the economy, producing a deep but short recession, but thanks to the strong fiscal expansion the recovery has been rapid. However, Brazil still has no plan for vaccination, and for an extended period it will be necessary to live with ...

Latam Outlook 2021 – Post-pandemic prospects – Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2020

Our live webinar features Affonso Pastore, Igal Magendzo, Juan Carlos Echeverry and Mauricio Gonzalez as they discuss their countries’ fiscal, macro and political prospects for the coming year. This webinar was moderated by Drausio Giacomelli, Research Head, Emerging Markets, Deutsche Bank.

Inflation: warning signs that should be monitored
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Dec 2020

Inflation accelerated at the start of the second half, first led by the rise of food prices, but now the process is more disseminated. The depreciation of the exchange rate, which in 2020 has amounted to a bit over 30%, is the main culprit for this increase of prices, and the depreciation in turn...

Temporary Relief in the Markets
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Nov 2020

The election of Biden in the United States and the news about the pending approval of effective vaccines against COVID 19 have increased investor’s risk appetite throughout the world. This has caused a generalized upward movement of stock prices, including in Brazil. The optimism over the vaccine...

The US Elections, the Vaccine and the New Covid Waves
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2020

Two positive events triggered a wave of optimism and appreciation of assets in the large majority of countries last week: the victory of the Democrat Joe Biden in the USA and the announcement by Pfizer that its vaccine is 90% effective in preventing infections by the new coronavirus. With the Fed...

Recovery of Industry: Domestic Production and Imports
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Nov 2020

Brazil’s industrial output grew in September and is 2% above the level observed in December 2016, an average increase of 0.6% per year in the period. It was the fifth consecutive month of expansion, and unlike many countries, Brazil has already recouped the loss accrued in March and April. But is...

Spending on Government Personnel
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Oct 2020

In this report we analyze: a) the expenditures on active and inactive personnel by the state governments; and b) the current stage of the administrative reform in the federal sphere. Outlays on personnel represent over 20% of the total spending of the federal government, of which approximately ha...

Fiscal Risk, Exchange Rate and Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2020

Inflation measured by the IPCA-15 has accelerated sharply in recent months, rising from 1.9% in June to 3.5% in October over the preceding 12 months. This increase has a visible “cause”, namely the weakening of the exchange rate, and if that were all, we could conclude that: a) the increase of in...

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