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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2018

Lula has started serving his jail term for the crimes of corruption and money laundering, and the country was not set inflame, as had been promised by his party’s propaganda and had been the claim on countless earlier occasions. On the contrary, his imprisonment strengthened, in Brazil and the wo...

The Evolution of the fiscal picture
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Apr 2018

The central government’s primary result has improved markedly in the past few months, with the deficit going from 3.2% of GDP in October to 1.6% of GDP in February. However, virtually all the improvement in that span was based on non-recurring revenues, while the recurring primary result continue...

Credit and economic activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Apr 2018

The current economic recovery is the slowest since CODACE started dating economic cycles in Brazil. Assuming that GDP grew by 0.5% in the first quarter – a pace that the available indicators suggest is most likely – the economy would need to grow at a yearly pace of nearly 6% in the next three qu...

The monetary easing cycle has not yet ended
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Mar 2018

The Central Bank decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the last COPOM meeting, to 6.5%, and made it clear that if the conjuncture continues to evolve as it has recently – low inflation and weak economic recovery – another reduction can be expected at the next meeting. Although th...

Can the expansion of consumption guarantee 3% GDP growth?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Mar 2018

The growth of household consumption, spurred by monetary policy, has been the driving force behind the recovery. However, the previous quarter witnessed a substantial deceleration, and if one takes real retail sales as a bellwether of consumption (which, as reiterated in recent reports, is an exc...

What are the signs regarding “true” growth in 2018?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Mar 2018

Our projection for economic growth of 3% in 2018 implicitly rests on a significant acceleration of the quarterly GDP growth rates – from 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 1.1% per quarter this year. The latest data indicate that GDP only expanded by 0.5% in the first three months of 2018, pos...

Forecast for 2018 and 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 12 Mar 2018

In this report we present the projections for the key economic variables in 2018 and 2019. GDP growth should reach 3% in 2018 and again in 2019, and the slow economic recovery will keep inflation below the target, at 3.7% in 2018 and 4.25% in 2019. This year, the SELIC rate will likely fall to 6....

Falling inflation and asymmetry of risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Mar 2018

Inflation is continuing to fall, and even if the SELIC rate is cut again by 25 basis points at the next COPOM meeting, taking it to 6.5%, inflation will be well below the target in 2018, and close 2019 at 4.25%. There are risks in both directions, but at this moment the most likely scenario for 2...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Mar 2018

The federal intervention in public security in Rio de Janeiro through the Army has brought a wave of uncertainties. Besides virtually burying the chances for approval of the pension reform proposal this year, leaving to the next government the most important of all the reforms (by creating condit...

What are the indications from the GDP result in 2017?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Mar 2018

After two years of contraction, GDP grew by 1% in 2017. Although this expansion was well dispersed to many sectors, growth in the fourth quarter was the lowest of 2017, and the pace of recovery has been the slowest of any of the recessions dated by CODACE (Graph 1). A year after the recession end...

Inflation Trend and Risks Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Feb 2018

At this point in time, the Central Bank is probably looking not only at 2018, but also 2019, when it will have to strive for convergence of the interest rate to the “neutral” level. The ideal situation would be for the government to make progress in the reforms – not only in the fiscal field, but...

The signals from the Central Bank: What can be expected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Feb 2018

In the communiqué of the decision that lowered the SELIC rate to 6.75%, the Central Bank indicated a high probability that the easing cycle was over, but the minutes left the door open to one more cut. More important than discussing whether the cycle will end at 6.75% or 6.5%, however, is recogni...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Feb 2018 · 1 response

The unanimous confirmation of Lula’s conviction by the TRF-4 court, with increase of his prison sentence, has made the probability of his appearance on the ballot in October remote. This development has focused attention on the center of the political spectrum, and negotiations are ongoing to for...

Is the end of the cycle in sight?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2018

In this report we provide a brief review of the tendencies for inflation and GDP growth in 2018. Despite the projection for expansion of GDP, by around 3%, the GDP gap is still negative, and even with the real interest rate below its neutral level, inflation will converge to the target of 4.5%. H...

What is the necessary fiscal effort: Brazil in relation to the world
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2018

The objective of this Special Report is to compare Brazil’s behavior in relation to the large majority of countries in a particular field of fiscal policy execution, that of “fiscal effort”, defined as the variation in the primary result necessary to stabilize the public debt in relation to GDP. ...

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