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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic Activity: Recent Signs and Trend
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 May 2014

There are clear signs that the economy remains weak. The numbers announced last week – the IBC-Br, which is a preview of GDP calculated by the Central Bank, and real retail sales, estimated by the IBGE – confirm this perception. In March the IBC-Br dipped by 0.1%, leading to first-quarter growth ...

Inflation: Differences Between 2002 and 2014
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2014

There is little doubt that after the elections the Central Bank will have to undertake the hard task of bringing inflation back to the 4.5% target. There is also little doubt that convergence to this target will be a long and arduous process.

Postponing Decisions and Increasing the Costs of the Adjustment
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2014

Executive Summary By all indications, GDP growth in 2014 will fall shy of that in 2013, with a further decline in 2015. Inflation will close the year near 6.5%, which together with the effects of the correction of gasoline and electricity prices will require a further increase in the interest ...

IPCA: Inflation Accelerates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 May 2014

In March the IPCA grew by 0.92%, in comparison with the IPCA-15 of 0.73%, raising the 12-month figure from 5.68% to 6.15% (Graph 1). With this result, the probability has grown that inflation will exceed the upper bound of the target interval at some point during the second or third quarters this...

Industrial Production: Revision in the Series and Results for March
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 May 2014

Executive Summary The IBGE has just released the industrial output numbers for March. However, in computing those numbers it applied a revised survey method. In the first part of this Bulletin we comment on the results for March, while in the second part we briefly describe the changes instituted...

The Reduction in the Growth of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2014

The reduced growth pace of real retail sales is not only due to the slower expansion of employment, causing deceleration of real payroll growth. Another factor is the reduced expansion of credit to individuals. The effects are most visible in car sales, which are very sensitive to bank lending po...

Inflation and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2014

The government is in an extremely uncomfortable position in an election year: inflation is threatening to exceed 6.5% and projections for growth in 2014 are below that observed in 2013. The most recent Focus survey published by the Central Bank (last week) indicated a median inflation projection ...

Inflation and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2014

The government is in an extremely uncomfortable position in an election year: inflation is threatening to exceed 6.5% and projections for growth in 2014 are below that observed in 2013. The most recent Focus survey published by the Central Bank (last week) indicated a median inflation projection ...

Labor Market: Data from the Continuous PNAD
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Apr 2014

Brazil no longer has an abundance of labor as it did in the past. But the data from the labor market are partial and need to be improved. To provide a better picture of the job market, the IBGE recently launched the “Continuous PNAD” (PNAD Contínua, with PNAD standing for National Household Surve...

Appreciating Exchange Rate And Inflation: What Can Be Expected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Apr 2014

Executive SummaryThe Central Bank has continued selling foreign exchange swaps even since the real started appreciating. What is the aim of this action? One possibility is that, lacking the freedom to raise the interest rate sufficiently because the government does not want any further decelerati...

The Weak Performance Of The Trade Balance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2014

There are still no signs of recovery of the trade balance, even though the real exchange rate is currently 14% weaker than it was a year ago. The first quarter closed with a deficit of US$ 6 billion, which is the biggest quarterly deficit in the history of the series, dating to 1959. In the 12 mo...

Monetary Policy in an Election Year
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The administration is faced with the unsavory prospect of an election year with weak economic growth combined with high inflation, with virtually no ammunition (fiscal or monetary) to improve matters in the short run. In 2011 and 2012 it pushed the interest rate substantially be...

Industrial Production: Another Weak Month
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Apr 2014

Industrial output in February grew 0.4%, after climbing 3.8% in January, resulting in growth over the previous 12 months of 5% (Graph 1). Because the Carnival holiday fell in February in 2013 and in March this year, February 2014 had two more working days than the year before, so the base for com...

Paradoxes and Perspectives
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2014

There are two paradoxes in the Brazilian economy’s recent behavior. First, although in recent weeks the perspectives have worsened for inflation, the current account deficit and GDP growth, the Ibovespa and real have both been appreciating (the exchange rate now is below R$2.30/US$). Second, the ...

Credit: Little Stimulus to Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Mar 2014

The total volume of credit to individuals has been growing in real terms by around 10% a year since the start of last year. However, this does not mean that credit has been propelling consumption. On the contrary, as will be shown in this note, except for a few modalities, the supply of credit to...

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