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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The deficit on South Africa’s current account narrows in Q4 2019 and for 2019 as a whole
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Mar 2020

Current account data released today by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed by R120 billion during the fourth quarter of 2019, falling from R188 billion in the third quarter to R68 billion. As a ratio of GDP, the current account deficit fur...

South Africa’s economy enters into another technical recession for the second time in two consecutive years
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Mar 2020

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP growth contracted by 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019. The decline of GDP by 0.8% (downwardly adjusted from -0.6%) during the third quarter of 2019 suggests that the South African economy was in a technical recession in H2 2019. As such, since the great r...

South Africa’s Budget 2020 makes substantial moves to reduce the bloated public sector wage bill
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Feb 2020

Our 2019 Budget report’s title indicated that tough decisions had been made while at the same time asking if it was enough, i.e., were the measures taken enough to improve South Africa’s fiscus or at least halt its deterioration. It’s a year later, and we all know it was not enough. Today Finance...

South Africa Conference Call - South Africa 2020 - The Budget, the SONA and the country's ratings
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Join us for a conference call as our Johannesburg-based South Africa Country Analyst Iraj Abedian explores the implications of the 2020 State of the Nation and Budget announcements on the prospects for the country's growth, political dynamics and social stability, and sovereign debt ratings.

South Africa’s SONA 2020: President Ramaphosa strikes a careful balance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Feb 2020

President Ramaphosa delivered his 2020 State of the Nation Address (SONA) against a fairly dramatic background. Within the Parliament, the opposition party, EFF, staged a rowdy and disruptive scene to demand the sacking of Minister Gordhan - the Minister of State-owned Enterprises. (SOEs). The EF...

President Ramaphosa's State of the Nation Address (SONA) 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 13 Feb 2020

After over 90 minutes of delays and disruptions caused by an orchestrated EFF interruptions, and following a short break in the parliamentary procedures, President Ramaphosa was finally given a chance to deliver his 2020 SONA. He presented a realistic and somewhat determined message to the nation...

South Africa’s economy further derailed by Eskom in 2019, but new developments in energy policy could reduce Eskom’s negative impact
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 06 Feb 2020

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: The last decade was very challenging for the South African economy in a myriad of ways, including growth. The mismanaged economy, along with the resultant insipid growth, lead to a deterioration of South Africa’s macroeconomic fundamentals. What’s...

The South African Reserve Bank gives the economy a boost with a 25 bp cut in interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jan 2020

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25%, and therefore the prime lending rate from 10% to 9.75%, during its first sitting of the year. Prior to this, the last time the MPC had made an ad...

The ANC’s 2020 anniversary celebrations amid power cuts and an insipid economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Jan 2020

The African National Congress (ANC) anniversary celebrations known as "The January 8" celebrations, during which the ANC delivers its annual statement that is essentially the "state of the party address", took place on Saturday, January 11, 2020. The January 8 statements have their origin in the ...

Eskom and electricity cuts are once again sabotaging South Africa’s economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Dec 2019

The South African economy is once again being sabotaged by Eskom. This is because on top of the substantial financial burden the state owned entity (SOE) has been placing on the fiscus, Eskom resumed its infamous scheduled power cuts, normally referred to as “load shedding”, in the past week. Wha...

South Africa’s Q3 current account deficit narrows on the back of improved terms of trade
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Dec 2019

Today the South African Reserve Bank released the latest current account data that shows the country’s current account deficit narrowed in the third quarter of 2019 - falling from R208.7 billion during the second quarter of 2019 to R190.3 billion in the third quarter, a narrowing of R18.3 billion...

South Africa’s Q3 GDP surprises on the downside, contracting amid expectations of low but positive growth
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Dec 2019

The previous quarterly GDP data by Stats SA revealed that South Africa had avoided a second consecutive H1 technical recession, as real GDP growth recovered by 3.2% q/q (upwardly adjusted from 3.1%) in the second quarter, from a contraction of 3.1% q/q during the first quarter of 2019. However, t...

The South African Reserve Bank plays prudent by keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Nov 2019

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at its final meeting of 2019, leaving the benchmark interest rate at 6.5% and the prime interest rate at 10%, ending the year with only with one change in the repo rate in July 2019. Three mem...

Is the end nigh for South African Airways?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 15 Nov 2019

The embattled state-owned entity (SOE) South African Airways (SAA) is on the brink of collapse. It is understood that SAA desperately needs around R2 billion in order to fund its operations until the end of the current financial year, but Finance Minister Tito Mboweni has made it clear on several...

South Africa’s unemployment rate keeps worsening – a threat to socio-economic and political stability
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Nov 2019

It is common knowledge that South Africa’s economy has been struggling for some time now, and the country’s chronic unemployment problem has only worsened, with unemployment rates perpetually recording new highs. The unemployment rate currently stands at 29.1% (Q3 2019), registering the highest r...

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