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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South Africa’s Evolving Democracy: Beyond Elections May 2014
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 May 2014

SA national elections on May 7th 2014 marked the 20th anniversary of the country’s constitutional democracy. While the ANC maintained its control over the national government with a 62% majority, it had much to worry about when examining the details of voting patterns across the 9 provinces and t...

Triple Economic Whammy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Apr 2014

The South African economy is struggling under the load of high price increases, raised costs of acquiring credit as well as low spending and a lack of confidence. Compared to twelve months earlier, indicators of inflation for March 2014 reveal that price pressures have escalated (see Graphs 1 and...

South Africa at the Election Gathering
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 15 Apr 2014

South Africa is now in full electioneering swing. Understandably, emotions are running high, and all the political parties, civil society activists, trade unions, businesses and society at large are on full alert. The 2014 General Elections, scheduled for May 7, are believed to be of particular s...

Consumers' economic health to go under the microscope
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2014

Pointers from key sections of the production side of the South African economy (i.e. manufacturing and mining) have indicated a weakening momentum in activity or worse (see our Special Report 11 April 2014). Next week, Statistics South Africa will publish retail sales figures for February 2014 on...

Symptoms of A Frail Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Apr 2014

The performance of mining and manufacturing disappointed in February 2014. Looking ahead, risks to these sectors are tilted to the downside, with adverse consequences for an economic recovery in 2014. Contraction in total mining production – by almost 5% y/y in February 2014 (see Graph 1) – may s...

Confidence Matters
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 09 Apr 2014

Executive Summary One quarter into 2014, it appears that a blend of domestic and global ingredients will decide the course of South Africa’s economic performance going forward. Confidence at home is by and large low. On the whole, we expect a lackluster economic performance as consumption spendin...

The SARB Catches a Breath on its Hiking Journey
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Mar 2014

Following a 50-basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate in January 2014, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to pause the interest rate hiking process. The repo rate will, for now, remain at 5.5% per year. Graph 1 Headline and Core Annual Inf...

The Current Account Deficit Eases in Q4 2013
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Mar 2014

According to the quarterly bulletin of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the current account balance was -R179 bn in Q4 2013 compared to -R216 bn the previous quarter. This translated into a moderated current account deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in the last quarter...

Budgeting Under Stress
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Feb 2014

Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan presented yesterday a balanced budget despite a lack of space for fiscal maneuvers. His eye was clearly on averting another credit rating downgrade. The Minister spoke the right language in (1) containing expenditure and (2) keeping all welfare expenditure incre...

Budgeting Under Stress
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 27 Feb 2014

Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan presented yesterday a balanced budget despite a lack of space for fiscal manoeuvres. His eye was clearly on averting another credit rating downgrade. The Minister spoke the right language in (1) containing expenditure and (2) keeping all welfare expenditure incr...

Q4 2013 GDP Recovery Fails to Lift Annual Outcome
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Feb 2014

Inflation adjusted (real) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by a quarterly, seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.8% in the last quarter of 2013. The outcome added 3.1 percentage points to the preceding quarter’s muted rate (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Quarterly Inflation-adjusted GDP growth ra...

Feeling the Squeeze
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Feb 2014

As was the case in other emerging markets economies (EMEs) hit by the exodus of capital – due to a reduction of monetary stimulus in the US – the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) swung into action by raising the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% per year in February 2014 (see Gr...

The SARB Raises the Repo Rate
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Jan 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted today to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% per year. On the face of it, it appears that, after a protracted period of inaction, the SARB preferred this time to join the monetary policy...

The SARB Raises the Repo Rate
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Jan 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted today to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent a year. On the face of it, it appears that, after a protracted period of inaction, the SARB preferred this time to join the monetary ...

Mandela’s Macroeconomic Policy Legacy Persists
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2013

The passing of new South Africa’s founding president, Nelson Mandela, affectionately known as Madiba, is yet another remarkable moment in the country’s young democratic dispensation. Once again, the nation has arisen to defy all predictions of chaos and negativity – instead unifying across all ra...

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