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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Mandela’s Macroeconomic Policy Legacy Persists
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Dec 2013

The passing of new South Africa’s founding president, Nelson Mandela, affectionately known as Madiba, is yet another remarkable moment in the country’s young democratic dispensation. Once again, the nation has arisen to defy all predictions of chaos and negativity-instead unifying across all raci...

RSA Secures its Place among the “Fragile Five”
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Dec 2013

According to a set of figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank, the current account deficit has remained in excess of 5% of GDP since 2012 (see Graph 1). This – coupled with a shortfall in the government balance as well as anemic growth – suggests that South Africa has secured its...

RSA Secures its Place Among the “Fragile Five”
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 03 Dec 2013

According to a set of figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank, the current account deficit has remained in excess of 5 per cent of the gross domestic product since 2012. This – coupled with a shortfall in the government balance as well as anemic growth – suggests that South Afric...

Manufacturing Woes Drag Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Nov 2013

Official figures released today by Statistics South Africa reveal that, after having increased by 3.2% (revised from 3.0%) during the second quarter of 2013 (Q2 2013), the inflation adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) advanced at a paltry pace of 0.7% in Q3 2013 (see Graph 1). The figures are o...

Manufacturing Woes Drag Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 26 Nov 2013

The uninspiring 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter Q3 2013 GDP growth outcome comes on the back of a mediocre performance within the manufacturing sector. Since the beginning of 2013, the quarterly performance of the manufacturing sector has moved from pillar to post. On the whole, South African man...

Elevated Inflation Risks Concern the SARB
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Nov 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pointed out today that it expects the inflation rate to hang around 6% - the upper limit of the target range. These worries over persistent inflation come even though the headline inflation rate has recently made its way...

Elevated Inflation Risks Concern the SARB
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 21 Nov 2013

In our opinion, the most important message to take from today’s MPC meeting is that currency volatility and weakness complicates the inflation outlook. Despite a recently adopted move to reduce exposure to the US dollar, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has generally not shown a keen interes...

Untimely Facelift
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryTrade data revisions and the South African Reserve Bank’s new asset allocation strategy are the latest facelift features of the South African economic landscape. On close inspection, it seems the timing of these measures is reactive. Policymaking has shifted into firefighting gea...

Unemployment Rate Eases on Rising Absorption Rate
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Oct 2013

According to Statistics South Africa, the Q3 2013 unemployment rate of 24.7% is 0.9 percentage points lower than the 25.6% recorded in Q2 2013 (see Graph 1 below). This was mainly driven by an increase in the number of employed persons (2.2% q/q) coupled with a decrease in the number of unemploye...

Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (Mini-Budget): 23 October 2013
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 23 Oct 2013

In his Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, the SA Minister of Finance walked a tight rope, made all the right moves and repeated messages of political support for the National Development Plan.  He was ever-conscious of the importance of macroeconomic stability, given the country’s twin deficits...

Battered from Many Fronts
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Oct 2013

Executive Summary We maintain our previous forecast for subdued economic activity in South Africa over the medium-term, with inflation adjusted gross domestic product growth recording 2.0 percent in 2013 and 2.4 percent in 2014. The labor market is poised to remain weak as we expect companies to ...

SA Political Economy Dilemmas - October 2013
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013

The IMF Article IV puts the “cat amongst the pigeons” in South Africa’s highly charged political economy environment.  Over the past year or so, South Africa’s labour unions have raised the political and ideological temperature substantially. A blend of binding factors has been at play. Declining...

The Benchmark Interest Rate Remains Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Sep 2013

Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) continues a period of no change in the benchmark interest rate. Cognizant of the upside nature of inflationary risks and the underlying hesitant economic recovery in South Africa, the MPC kept the rep...

Above Target Headline Inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 18 Sep 2013

In August 2013, the headline inflation rate recorded 6.4 per cent year-on-year i.e. a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month’s print. This outcome is consistent with the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s expectation of a temporary breach of its 6 per cent inflation targeti...

All Eyes on the Fed and the SARB
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Sep 2013

This week the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve Bank meets to discuss the conduct of monetary policy. Expectations are that an announcement will be made concerning the timing and extent of the reduction of the stimulus program, also known as “quantitative easing”.Against thi...

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