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Exports boost South Africa’s 2Q2021 current account balance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Sep 2021

Commodity prices have been reaching record highs in 2021, as global economic activity slowly rebounds. For resource-rich countries such as South Africa, this news is well received. As expected, the current account surplus widened in the second quarter of 2021 – to R343 billion in 2Q2021 from R261...

SA GDP surprises on the upside in the third quarter, but the outlook warrants cautious optimism
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Sep 2021

Statistics South Africa’s (StatsSA) recently rebased South Africa gross domestic product (GDP) has resulted in upward revisions of the country’s 2020 GDP (at current prices) by 11%, to R5.52 trillion (previously R4.97 trillion). This leaves the annual growth rate for 2020 at -6.4% from -7%. The ...

South Africa’s economy amid unrest, Cabinet changes and a mining sector boom
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 09 Aug 2021

South Africa’s growth: South Africa’s economy, which is once again being adversely impacted by another round of more stringent lockdowns on account of the third wave of Covid-19 infections, encountered another setback in July. This was in the form of the civil unrest that took place at the beginn...

President Ramaphosa Reshuffles South Africa's National Cabinet - at last!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

A few minutes ago, President Ramaphosa finally delivered the long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle. After months and months of speculation, and following the destructive and unsettling insurrection of the last month, President Ramaphosa had no choice but to make changes to his Cabinet. At the same time,...

The South African Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged following the country’s unrest
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jul 2021

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) again voted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged following the conclusion of its fourth meeting of the year. As such, the repo rate remains at 3.5% and the prime lending rate at 7%. This was the outcome despite the MPC’s view that the o...

South Africa's Week of Insurrection, Crime Against the State, Instability and Massive Destruction of Economic Infrastructure
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 17 Jul 2021 · 1 response

What began as an unexpected outbreak of violence and looting at the beginning of this week is now officially classified as "a failed insurrection", coordinated by a network of political leaders and their associates in the national security structures of the country. On the face of it, the outbrea...

South Africa's x-President Zuma now behind bars
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 08 Jul 2021 · 2 responses

After a day and night of legal and political high drama, x-President Zuma handed over himself to the police minutes before midnight yesterday. South Africa's constitutional democracy and its entire paradigm of 'equality before law' was on trial in full view of the nation all day and night. Zuma i...

South Africa Covid-19 update and the Jacob Zuma arrest
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Jul 2021

​South Africa is in the grips of its third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and it is proving to be quite severe, far more so than the first two waves as per the rate of infections. The seven-day rolling average cases were 12,584 during the peak of the first wave (July 2020) and were 19,042 during t...

South African reserves and their role as the country’s financial buffer
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Jun 2021

Although the South African Reserve Bank has indicated during past bouts of the rand’s depreciation that it would not intervene by using the country’s reserves, South Africa’s reserves, which include gold and other foreign reserves, are an important liquidity buffer that can be used against foreig...

South Africa records its second largest current account surplus in the first quarter of 2021
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jun 2021

Today’s current account data release by the South African Reserve Bank shows that during the first quarter of 2021, South Africa’s current account recorded its fourth surplus since the first quarter of 2020 (with a deficit having been recorded only during Q2 2020). The latest surplus, which is al...

South Africa’s economy starts 2021 on a positive note, but the looming third wave of Covid-19 infections present a downside risk to growth
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Jun 2021

Real annualized quarterly GDP went up by 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021. This was following annualized expansions of 67.3% q/q and 4.6% q/q during the third and fourth quarter of 2020, respectively. Today’s GDP print confirms that South Africa’s economy is indeed recovering from its record slu...

The South African Reserve Bank keeps interest rates unchanged despite mounting inflationary pressures
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 May 2021

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged following this week’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) third meeting of the year. The repo rate remains at 3.5% and the prime lending rate at 7%. The decision...

The South African business environment and post-Covid economic performance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 May 2021

​The overall business environment in South Africa has been challenging, especially since the great recession, with factors such as policy uncertainty and electricity supply shortages resulting in low business confidence. Against this backdrop, the performance of the country’s private enterprises ...

The ANC's Strongest Measure in Fighting Corruption within the Party- and perhaps in the country
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 05 May 2021

Today, the ANC issued a formal letter notifying its Secretary General, Ace Magashule, of his temporary suspension. The letter, signed by the Deputy Secretary General (Jesse Duarte), confirms that Magashule is suspended temporarily pending the outcome of fraud and corruption charges he is facing. ...

South Africa’s economy – a year into the Covid-19 pandemic
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 03 May 2021

South Africa’s growth: In line with what transpired globally as the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in both a worldwide health crisis and widespread economic crisis, the South African economy experienced a deep contraction of 7% in real GDP in 2020. Yet, a number of tail winds, including fewer restric...