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Lula has lost political capital compared to the 2022 elections, Vorcaro is expected to testify before the Senate CAE tomorrow, and the TSE will hear a case against the Governor of Rio for irregularities in his 2022 campaign
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026

Comparing Datafolha polling from 2022 and 2026 shows that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT) has lost political capital during this period in both first-round and runoff simulations. Bolsonarismo, in turn, has improved its performance. Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, ...

The Banco Master case continues to cause repercussions in Brasília, today marks the start of the party-switching window, and STF President Justice Fachin will discuss judicial compensation next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2026

Revelations about the conversations between the owner of Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro, and the authorities continue to emerge and are generating repercussions in Brasília. According to journalist Malu Gaspar, one of the last messages Vorcaro sent on the day he was arrested, November 17 of last ye...

The House approved the Public Security PEC, the CCJ should hold public hearings on reducing working hours and ending the 6x1 work schedule, and the Senate approved the Mercosur-EU trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Mar 2026

The plenary of the Lower House concluded the vote on the Public Security Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) submitted by the Executive Branch. The text now moves to the Senate. Yesterday morning, the Lower House Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved a request by Congressman Paulo...

Alcolumbre upheld the CPMI’s decision to access Lulinha’s confidential information, the House may vote on the report on the Public Security PEC, and the Senate may vote on the Mercosur–European Union trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2026

The government suffered a defeat in the Senate. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) upheld the decision of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the INSS to access the confidential information of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as "Lulinha", President Lula’s son. Today, t...

Lula said he might visit the U.S. this month, Lula should meet today with Alckmin and Haddad to discuss the São Paulo gubernatorial race, and the House approved the bill that allows pharmacies in supermarkets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Mar 2026

Last week, President Lula announced that he might visit the United States during the week of March 15. Following the attacks on Iran, however, there are doubts about that schedule. The conflict between the United States and Iran has become part of the presidential race. Flavio Bolsonaro said the ...

The PT goes on the offensive and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

The Lower House may vote on the Public Security constitutional amendment proposal (PEC). In the economy, attention turns to the release of Brazil’s 2025 GDP. On March 6, the party-switching window will open, allowing members of Congress to change parties without risking the loss of their mandates...

The right’s demonstration drew a smaller crowd than those before Bolsonaro was imprisoned, the House may vote on the Public Security PEC on Wednesday, and the party-switching window opens on Friday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

The demonstration organized by right-wing groups on Sunday (March 1) in several state capitals, dubbed “Wake Up, Brazil,” drew lower turnout compared with rallies held when former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was not serving his sentence. The largest crowd was recorded on Avenida Paulista in São...

The INSS CPI approved access to Lula’s son’s confidential banking information, the STF resumes adjudication of the payroll tax relief case, and Congress is expected to vote on the public security PEC next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2026

The government suffered another political setback: the INSS Joint Parliamentary Inquiry Committee (CPMI) approved access to confidential bank, telephone, and tax information of the president’s son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as "Lulinha". The session was marked by clashes between government ...

A recent poll reinforced the polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the administration is now focusing on approving the 6x1 PEC, and the Senate approved new guidelines for the petrochemicals sector
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2026

An Atlas poll released yesterday, February 25, showed the consolidation of a polarized scenario between President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the presidential race. In first-round simulations, Lula appears, depending on the scenario, with between 43% and 47% of intended votes....

The House approved the Redata Bill and the Anti-Gang Bill, the STF will review the injunction issued by Justice Dino on public-sector salaries, and government leaders met yesterday to discuss the salary “perks” issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2026

The Lower House approved yesterday, February 24, the Redata bill (PL 278/26), which establishes a Special Tax Regime for Data Center Services. The measure reduces the tax burden on the deployment and modernization chain of data processing centers in the country. The House also approved the Anti-G...

The Anti-Gang Bill should be put to a vote, the president of the CCJC should announce the rapporteur of the 6x1 PEC, and the two leading presidential candidates are facing headwinds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2026

The Anti-Gang Bill, which establishes the Legal Framework for Combating Organized Crime, is currently blocking the House agenda and could be voted on this Tuesday. If approved, it will be sent to President Lula for sanction. The president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJC), Congress...

Flávio's "moderate Bolsonaro" strategy and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2026

Congress resumes activity this week. In the Lower House, the government is mobilizing around the 6x1 work schedule proposal, the Mercosur–European Union agreement, and the Public Security constitutional amendment. In the Senate, expectations are building regarding the date of Jorge Messias’s conf...

The House will prioritize voting on the Mercosur-EU trade deal, negotiations continue over the vacancy at the TCU, and the Senate may vote on requests to hear from Justices Toffoli and Moraes regarding the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2026

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), said that this week he will prioritize the vote on the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The text will be voted on by the Brazilian Representation in the Mercosur Parliament. Negotiations also continue over the...

Justice Toffoli has stepped down as rapporteur of the Banco Master case, a new poll suggests Lula would lose in a runoff among São Paulo voters, and the STF will review a request to extend the dividend distributions deadline
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2026

Following reports that Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Dias Toffoli may have benefited from payments made by banker Daniel Vorcaro, he has stepped down as rapporteur of the Banco Master case. Justice André Mendonça has been appointed as the new rapporteur. Yesterday, the Paraná Institute also...

A new poll reinforces the polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula and Motta meet to discuss the 6x1 work schedule issue, and tensions are expected to rise in Brasília regarding the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Feb 2026

Yesterday, a new round of the Genial/Quaest presidential polling was released. The poll reinforces the polarized landscape between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula leads in both first- and second-round scenarios. The absence of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas from the poll...

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