GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Another Vox poll on the presidential election was released yesterday. Lula leads both the first- and second-round simulations. In the first round, the president posts 41.5%, while Flavio Bolsonaro has 31.1%. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) stands at 5.9% and Romeu Zema (Novo) at 4.1%. Yesterday, the Constit...

Flávio Bolsonaro visited Vorcaro when he was arrested, Lula continues to try to improve his approval ratings, and the report on the 6x1 work schedule should be submitted next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2026

Yesterday, new information involving Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and former banker Daniel Vorcaro was made public. According to the news outlet Metrópoles, Flavio visited Vorcaro after the former banker’s arrest late last year. Meanwhile, Lula continues to announce measures aimed at improving his ap...

The first poll since Flávio Bolsonaro’s leaked audio recordings has been published, Lula will launch a program to help finance vehicles, and discussions on the 6x1 work schedule continue

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2026

The first AtlasIntel presidential polling data since the release of audio recordings involving Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and banker Daniel Vorcaro has just been released. Flávio Bolsonaro dropped six percentage points and now holds 41.8% of voter intentions against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva...

Flávio under pressure and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2026

The rapporteur of the bill addressing the end of the 6x1 work schedule, Congressman Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA), is set to present his report before the Lower House Special Committee. In the Senate, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) may move forward with the rare earths bill and the Pu...

Congressman Prates should present his report on the 6x1 work schedule PECs, the House may vote on the fuel tax break offset bill, and AtlasIntel will release a presidential voting intention poll tomorrow

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2026

On Wednesday (May 20), Congressman Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA) is expected to present his report on the proposed constitutional amendments (PECs) addressing the end of the 6x1 work schedule. A transition rule is currently under negotiation. The Lower House may vote this week on Complementary Bil...

The government shows signs of increased approval ratings, the leaked audio recordings of Flávio and Vorcaro have caused concern among his allies, and today is the deadline for amendments to 6x1 work schedule PECs

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2026

The week ends on a positive note for the government. For the opposition, the balance is negative. President Lula began the week by announcing an R$11 billion public package for public security, which is the issue voters are most concerned about according to opinion polls. A new Genial/Quaest poll...

Flávio sought financial support from Vorcaro to make a film about his father, Viana filed a request to create a CPMI into Banco Master, and government allies intend to file a complaint against Flávio in the Senate Ethics Council

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2026

The news that Flavio Bolsonaro sought financial support from former banker Daniel Vorcaro to make a film about former President Jair Bolsonaro caught the political world by surprise and represents a major setback for the senator’s campaign at this stage. The issue is expected to impact polling nu...

Lula is focused on measures aimed at improving his approval ratings, the Public Security PEC is expected to move forward next week, and debate over ending the 6x1 work schedule continues according to the timeline

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2026

President Lula remains firmly focused on measures aimed at improving his approval ratings. Yesterday, two new initiatives were announced. The federal government launched the “Brazil Against Organized Crime” program. Lula also signed a provisional measure eliminating the so-called “clothing tax,” ...

Justice Marques will assume the presidency of the TSE, Durigan expects the bill authorizing the government to use oil revenues to be voted on this week, and Ciro Gomes said he will not be running for President

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2026

Justice Kassio Nunes Marques officially assumes the presidency of Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) today. He will lead the court during the 2026–2028 term and will therefore preside over this year’s elections. Yesterday, Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated that he expects the complementa...

The succession chessboard in three key states and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2026

The Special Committee in the Lower House discussing the end of the 6x1 work schedule will hear from Finance Minister Dario Durigan and the head of the Presidential Secretariat-General, Guilherme Boulos. Justice Kassio Nunes Marques will be sworn in as president of the Superior Electoral Court (TS...

The committee on the 6x1 work schedule will hear from the Finance Minister, the rapporteur for the bill on the MEI revenue threshold should present his work plan, and Justice Marques will assume the presidency of the TSE

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2026

The Special Committee in the Lower House discussing the end of the 6x1 work schedule will hold two public hearings this week. On Tuesday (May 12), the committee will hear from Finance Minister Dario Durigan. The rapporteur for Complementary Bill (PLP) No. 108/21, which raises the maximum annual g...

Trump said his meeting with Lula went well, Justice Carmen Lúcia issued her opinion on the oil royalties case, and the House Committee on the 6x1 work schedule will hear from Dario Durigan

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2026

President Lula held another meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Shortly after the meeting, Trump wrote on social media that the discussion was “very good” and that new meetings between representatives of both countries will be scheduled in the coming months to address bilateral issues. Supr...

The latest poll shows little change to the electoral landscape, Lula will meet with Trump today, and the Lower House approved a bill establishing the National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2026

Another presidential succession poll was released yesterday. Conducted by Canal Meio/Ideia Big Data, the poll showed little change compared to previous polls, with President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) remaining well ahead of the other prospective candidates. Today, President Lula will...

The Special Committee on the 6x1 work schedule presented its work plan, the STF will review the new rules for the distribution of oil royalties, and today is the deadline for Lula to sign into law sentencing guidelines bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2026

The Special Committee reviewing the proposal to eliminate the 6x1 work schedule (PEC 221/19) presented yesterday its work plan for this month. The presentation of the rapporteur’s report is scheduled for May 20, Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will hear direct constitutional challenges aga...

The government published the details of the Desenrola 2 program, Congressman Jardim presented his report on the bill addressing critical minerals, and Lula travels to the U.S tomorrow to meet with Trump

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2026

The government announced the Desenrola 2 program, one of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s key bets to improve his approval ratings. The new program has four pillars: Desenrola Families, considered the main one; Desenrola FIES; Desenrola Businesses; and Desenrola Rural. Yesterday, Congressman Arnaldo J...