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Despite Lula's edge the election is likely to be tight and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2026

Two new presidential succession polls will be released this week, one by AtlasIntel and another by Instituto Futura. The World Economic Forum takes place in Davos, Switzerland, without the meaningful participation of Brazilian authorities. The European Parliament is set to vote on two proposals r...

Master and Maduro: the opposition's bets and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jan 2026

President Lula (PT) will sign, this week, the 2026 Federal Budget and the bill creating the Management Committee of the Goods and Services Tax (IBS). Both texts were approved by the National Congress in December. Two presidential election polls are set to be released—by Boas Ideias Inteligência e...

The Joint Budget Committee should vote on the 2026 Budget, Congress should recess today and return on February 2, and the Mercosur-EU agreement may be signed next year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2025

Today, the Joint Budget Committee is expected to vote on the 2026 Budget Bill (PLOA 2026). The meeting was originally scheduled for yesterday, but the budget rapporteur, Representative Isnaldo Bulhões (MDB-AL), requested additional time to adjust the budget text. After approval by the committee, ...

The Senate approved the Sentencing Bill, Congress should vote on the Federal Budget on Friday, and the Minister of Tourism stepped down from his position
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2025

The Senate floor approved yesterday the Sentencing Bill (PL 2,162/23), which reduces the sentences of those convicted for the January 8, 2023 attacks. The bill now moves to presidential consideration. Congress will hold a joint session on Friday morning, December 19, to vote on the 2026 Annual B...

The Lower House approved the bill on the Management Committee for the IBS tax, the Senate will discuss the Sentencing Bill, and the first poll since Flavio was chosen as Bolsonaro’s successor was published
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2025

The Lower House concluded yesterday the vote on the remaining amendments to the bill regulating the Management Committee and the second phase of the Tax Reform (PLP 108/24). The bill now moves to presidential sanction. Also today, the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee will debate the Se...

The Lower House set this week’s voting agenda, the STF approved the resumption of the investigation into the Banco Master fraud scheme, and the STF is expected to vote on the demarcation of indigenous lands
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2025

Following a meeting of party leaders, the Lower House set this week’s voting agenda. The agenda includes a bill providing for a linear cut in tax incentives, which is a priority for the Ministry of Finance. Yesterday, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Dias Toffoli ordered the resumption of inve...

The race for the strategic vote in 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

This is the final week of legislative activity in the National Congress before the holiday recess and it comes with a packed agenda. In the Lower House, highlights include the review of the IBS Management Committee, the linear cut to tax benefits, and the Anti-Faction Law. In the Senate, the Sent...

This is the final week of legislative activity before the recess, the House may vote on the tax benefits bill, and Lula will attend the Mercosur meeting on December 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

This is the final week of legislative activity in the National Congress, with a packed agenda. According to the President of Congress, Davi Alcolumbre (União–AP), Congress may vote on the 2026 Federal Budget on Wednesday or Thursday. The Lower House may vote on a bill providing for a 10% across-t...

Motta has been criticized for not terminating the mandates of some representatives, the Sentencing bill may be put to a vote, and next week is the last week of legislative activity before the recess
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), has come under criticism from both allies and opposition lawmakers over how the proceedings involving the possible removal of mandates have been handled. Next week will be marked by intense political negotiations in Brasília. It will...

Justice Gilmar partially reversed his decision on the impeachment law, the Senate approved the proposal reducing the work week, and the Senate also approved the Anti-Gang bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2025

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Gilmar Mendes decided yesterday to partially reverse his own injunction that had suspended portions of the law governing the impeachment of public officials. Yesterday, the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved a proposed constitutional ame...

The Lower House approved a bill that reduces penalties for attempted coup d’états, the House also approved the bill on persistent tax debtors, and the House may vote on a bill cutting tax benefits
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2025

The Lower House approved a bill that reduces penalties for individuals convicted of attempting a coup d’état. The vote came after a meeting between Senator and presidential pre-candidate Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and the leaders of the PP, Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), and União Brasil, Antonio Rueda. Th...

Centrist parties approach Flavio Bolsonaro’s candidacy with caution, the House president will meet with the Tax Reform rapporteur, and two major tax benefits bills are being considered in the Lower House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2025

When Flavio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy on Friday, the market reacted sharply and negatively. But there is resistance within the political arena, as well. Yesterday, Flavio scheduled a meeting with leaders from Centrist parties, but some chose not to attend. Today, the President of the Lowe...

Public security as a political asset and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025

This is the penultimate week of activity in the National Congress. In the Lower House, lawmakers may vote on the bill that regulates the Tax Reform and another that deals with tax benefits. In the Senate, the bill taxing betting companies and fintechs may complete its legislative process. In the ...

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro announced he may run for president next year, the House President will meet with the Tax Reform rapporteur, and the STF will review the impeachment law for justices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025

On Friday, December 5, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s (PL-RJ) announcement of his pre-candidacy surprised both the market and the political establishment. However, on Sunday, December 7, in an interview, he admitted he may withdraw from the race — but said such a move comes with a price: amnesty for ...

Congress approved the Budget Guidelines Bill, the House will discuss creating a committee on Tax Reform, and discussions continue on the impeachment procedure for Supreme Court justices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2025

Congress completed yesterday the approval of the 2026 Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO), which now includes a schedule for the payment of parliamentary amendments — a key demand from lawmakers ahead of next year’s elections. In the Lower House, President Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB) is expected to me...

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