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There were strong reactions from both the government and the opposition on the day after the Supreme Federal Court’s (STF) proceedings involving Alexandre de Moraes. On the government side, President Lula said he was outraged by what is happening. The opposition, meanwhile, was unhappy with Just...

The STF postponed deliberations on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, Lula tries to distance himself from the STF crisis, and the Copom will decide on the new benchmark interest rate today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2026

As expected, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) postponed its decision on whether to open an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The proceedings were suspended after Justice Flávio Dino requested additional time to review the case. Under the Court’s internal rules, Dino’s request fo...

The STF begins deliberations on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, the latest poll showed a sharp increase in public concern over corruption, and Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are now statistically tied among women

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2026

Today, starting at 10:00 a.m. local time, Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court (STF) will begin deliberations on whether to authorize an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes’s relationship with former banker Daniel Vorcaro. A Quaest poll released yesterday showed a sharp increase in public co...

A difficult runoff for Lula and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will decide whether to investigate Justice Alexandre de Moraes based on a Federal Police report pointing to an alleged connection between him and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is currently in custody. On the economic front, attention will focus on the Central B...

The STF will hold a session next week on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, the Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate to 13.75%, and 11 polls will be published this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will begin deliberations tomorrow morning, Tuesday (Sep. 15), on whether to open an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes based on a Federal Police report pointing to an alleged connection between the justice and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is curren...

Flávio Bolsonaro is numerically ahead of Lula in the latest polls on the runoff, the STF will hold a session next week on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, and the Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate to 13.75% next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2026

Two polls released yesterday, one by PoderData and another by AtlasIntel, showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula in hypothetical runoff matchups. In the PoderData poll, the result is 47% to 45%. In the AtlasIntel poll, it is 46.4% to 46.2%. The main focus next week will be the Sup...

Justice Fachin called a session for next week to decide on the latest Banco Master development, the government is trying to lower gas prices, and Lula signs into law the measure eliminating the so-called “blouse import tax”

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2026

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Chief Justice Luiz Edson Fachin has called an extraordinary session for next Tuesday, September 15, for the full Court to decide on a Federal Police report that identifies Justice Alexandre de Moraes as the interlocutor of former banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco M...

The latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in a runoff, Chief Justice Fachin gave Justice Mendonça 72 hours to respond to a request from the AGU, and Fachin may take over the Banco Master case

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2026

Yesterday, a voting-intention poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula (PT) in a runoff, with 46% to 45%, according to Nexus/BTG Pactual. The erosion in support is not driven solely by the institutional issues surrounding the crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The econo...

The presidential race with no clear favorite and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2026

The crisis at the Federal Supreme Court (STF) continues. Statements from the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) and Justice André Mendonça to Justice Edson Fachin are expected regarding Mendonça’s conduct in the Banco Master case. Mendonça may also approve a plea bargain related to "Dark Hors...

Flávio took part in a political rally in São Paulo yesterday, Lula delivered a nationally televised address, and there is no clear frontrunner in the election

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2026

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) took part in a political rally on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo on September 7, Brazil’s Independence Day, which drew strong turnout from Bolsonaro’s political base. The demonstration was held under the slogan “Lula and Alexandre de Moraes Out”. President Lula (PT) d...

The STF crisis continues to escalate, and the latest polls show Lula ahead of Flávio in the first round but tied in the runoff, so there is currently no clear favorite in the presidential race

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2026

The crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) continues to escalate. Yesterday, Justice Alexandre de Moraes requested that Justice André Mendonça be investigated as part of the fake news inquiry for abuse of authority. The full Court will now have to decide whether to investigate Justice Alexandr...

Pressure on the STF continues to build, Alcolumbre will meet with party leaders to discuss impeachment requests against Justice de Moraes, and the government secured important advances in Congress

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2026

New information about Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) has emerged, further increasing pressure on the Court. Justice André Mendonça, the justice overseeing the Banco Master case before the STF, met with Daniel Vorcaro without the Federal Police present. Today, Senate President Davi Alcolumbr...

New evidence from the Vorcaro case was presented by the Federal Police, the opposition filed impeachment requests against Justice Moraes, and the Joint Committee may vote on the so-called “blouse tax”

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2026

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice André Mendonça, who is overseeing the investigations into fraud involving Banco Master, suggested in a decision released on Tuesday (September 1) that new evidence presented by the Federal Police (PF) in the case be reviewed by the full Court. Mendonça lifted t...

The TSE suspended presidential candidate Renan Santos’s campaign, candidate Augusto Cury rose significantly in the polls, and Justice Toffoli was criticized for his decision against Renan Santos

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2026

Two new developments yesterday shook up the presidential race. The first was the surprising rise of Augusto Cury (Avante) in voting-intention polls. Cury gained 6.2 percentage points in the AtlasIntel poll, reaching 7.8%. In the Nexus/BTG poll, the Avante candidate climbed nine points to 11%. The...

Electoral considerations drive the Lula-Alcolumbre alliance and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2026

Congress will hold a concentrated legislative session this week. The agenda includes several bills and proposals of interest to the government: the elimination of the “small-package tax,” the end of the 6-on/1-off work schedule, critical minerals policy, Redata, and the Public Security Constituti...