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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) signed a new provisional measure (MP) on Wednesday (July 22) aimed at the Brasil Soberano Program. The measure is expected to provide R$18.5 billion for the investment and trade support initiative’s third phase. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL) president...

A Real Time Big Data poll shows Caiado narrowly leading Lula in a runoff, Flávio is struggling to secure alliances ahead of the elections, and the new 25% U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products take effect today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2026

A Real Time Big Data poll released yesterday showed PSD candidate Ronaldo Caiado narrowly leading President Lula in a hypothetical presidential runoff, with 44% to Lula’s 43%. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, however, Lula would prevail by 45% to the senator’s 42%. In addition, Flávio is struggling to s...

Jair Bolsonaro’s legal team asked Justice Moraes to reconsider his ban on Flávio Bolsonaro’s visits, Lula builds a political platform in Minas Gerais, and Justice Dino contacted the police regarding congressional earmarks

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2026

Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s defense team asked Justice Alexandre de Moraes to reconsider his decision barring Senator Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting his father for 90 days. The attorneys argue that the restriction is “disproportionate” and “excessive”. President Lula has finally managed to ...

Why the presidential race remains open and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2026

The party convention period, during which parties define their candidates and alliances, begins today, July 20. On Saturday, July 25, the Liberal Party (PL) will formally nominate Flávio Bolsonaro for president. The following day, July 26, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) will formally nominate ...

The party convention period begins today, the PL will officially nominate Flávio Bolsonaro on Saturday (July 25), and the 25% U.S. tariff will take effect on Wednesday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2026

Party conventions begin today, July 20, and will continue through August 5. During this period, political parties will meet to select their candidates and establish coalitions. On Saturday (July 25), the Liberal Party (PL) will officially nominate Flávio Bolsonaro for president at its convention ...

VP Alckmin calls U.S. tariffs unfair and unwarranted, tariffs will be a central topic in the upcoming presidential elections, and the party convention period begins Monday, July 20

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2026

“Unfair and unwarranted”. That is how Vice President Geraldo Alckmin described the U.S. government’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports. According to the vice president, the administration is preparing a program to support the affected sectors. Alckmin also said the government c...

The U.S. decided to impose the 25% tariff on Brazilian exports, Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy faces several setbacks, and Justice Dino demanded that all political parties report on their congressional funds

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2026

As expected, the United States confirmed a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports. The measure has quickly become politicized, and President Lula is expected to use it as a campaign issue by placing responsibility on Flávio Bolsonaro. Another setback for Flávio Bolsonaro came from the latest Genial/Quae...

The Senate approved the Freight MP, it also approved a PEC on special retirement rules for community health workers, and the U.S. should decide today whether to impose the 25% tariff on Brazilian exports

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2026

Yesterday, the Senate approved the provisional measure (MP) changing the rules governing minimum road freight rates, but without the proposed monthly minimum wage of R$5,000 for truck drivers. The text now goes to the president for sanction. The Senate also approved a proposed constitutional amen...

The Freight MP may be put to a vote today in the Senate, truck drivers called for a strike yesterday but participation was limited, and Justice Moraes suspended Flávio Bolsonaro’s visitation rights to his father’s house

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2026

The government leader in the National Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues (PT-AP), said yesterday that the Freight MP (Provisional Measure 1,343/26) will be ready for a floor vote today (July 14). Leaders of independent truck drivers called for a strike starting at midnight on Monday in support ...

The political impact of Jair Bolsonaro's letter and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2026

The final week of activity in the National Congress began last Friday, ahead of the legislative recess. In the Senate, lawmakers may vote on the provisional measure establishing a minimum freight rate. Truck drivers are pressuring Congress to vote on the matter. Four presidential polls will be re...

This is the final week of legislative activity, the Senate may vote on the provisional measure on minimum freight rates, and the deadline for negotiations between Brazil and the U.S. on the tariffs ends on Wednesday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2026

Starting Friday (July 17), the National Congress will recess and resume activity on August 3. Upon return, however, lawmakers will maintain a reduced schedule due to the electoral period. The Senate may vote this week on Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1,343/26, which deals with minimum freight rate...

The Gecex approved the temporary maintenance of the 12% Export Tax on crude oil, next week will be the final week of legislative activity before the recess, and the U.S. will decide whether to implement the 25% tariff

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2026

At a meeting held yesterday (July 9), the Executive Management Committee of the Chamber of Foreign Trade (Gecex) approved the temporary maintenance of the 12% Export Tax rate on crude oil. According to the committee, the measure was adopted in response to the deterioration of the international en...

The period for party conventions begins on July 20, the war between the U.S. and Iran has once again increased oil prices, and the Central Bank faces uncertainty regarding interest rates

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2026

The period for party conventions begins on July 20. The main parties with presidential candidates have already scheduled the dates of their respective conventions. Flavio Bolsonaro is expected to choose a female running mate with the aim of reducing his resistance among female voters. The war bet...

Flávio Bolsonaro defended Pix in the USTR public hearing, there is still no agreement on the rural debt renegotiation bill, and two new presidential polls should be published today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2026

At a public hearing held yesterday at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) defended suspending the proposed surcharge on Brazilian products and maintaining Pix. There is still no agreement between the government and Congress on the proposal...

Flávio Bolsonaro will participate in the USTR public hearing, Motta will meet with the FPA to discuss the rural debt renegotiation bill, and the president of the CNI requested predictability for the Selective Tax under tax reform

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2026

Today, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) will participate in a public hearing in the United States to discuss the proposed additional 25% tariff on Brazilian products. The son of former President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to speak for five minutes. Today, Speaker of the House Hugo Motta (Republic...