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The threat by the United States to impose a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports has become a major issue in the presidential campaign. The Lula administration is attempting to link the issue to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Yesterday, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP) stated that the con...

The USTR proposed imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Brazil, Alcolumbre should meet with party leaders to discuss the 6x1 proposal, and São Paulo’s Civil Police launched an investigation into a suspected scheme

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2026

Yesterday evening, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) proposed imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Brazil, except for goods classified as being subject to "national security tariffs". According to the document released late at night, the measure is justified by a series of actions, polici...

Lula's electoral strategy and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Congress is expected to have a light schedule this week due to the Corpus Christi holiday. On Friday, the United States' designation of the Comando Vermelho (CV) and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) as terrorist organizations officially takes effect. President Lula will convene his cabinet on We...

The federal holiday on Thursday will reduce activity in Congress, the Senate President will meet with party leaders to discuss the voting schedule for the 6x1 PEC, and Lula will hold a cabinet meeting on Wednesday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Congress will operate on a reduced schedule this week due to the Corpus Christi holiday on June 4. On Tuesday (June 2), Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) will meet with party leaders to discuss the legislative timetable for the constitutional amendment proposal (PEC) that would end the ...

The U.S. has decided to designate the CV and PCC as terrorist organizations, Lula will hold a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, and Thursday is a federal holiday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 May 2026

The week appeared headed toward a major victory for the government with the Lower House’s approval of the proposal to eliminate Brazil’s 6x1 work schedule. However, that development was overshadowed by the U.S. government's decision to designate Comando Vermelho (CV) and Primeiro Comando da Capit...

Justice Nunes Marques has given the PGR twenty days to issue an opinion on Bolsonaro’s request for a criminal review, the House approved the end of the 6x1 work schedule, and Lula leads in the latest presidential polls

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2026

Justice Kassio Nunes Marques has given the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) twenty days to issue an opinion on former President Jair Bolsonaro’s request for a criminal review of the 27-year-and-three-month prison sentence imposed on him in the criminal case related to the attempted coup d’é...

Flávio Bolsonaro met with Donald Trump yesterday, the Special Committee is expected to vote on the rapporteur’s report on the 6x1 work schedule, and the Senate may analyze a bill on special uses for the Pre-Salt Social Fund

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2026

Yesterday, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro met with U.S. President Donald Trump. According to Flávio, he told Trump that, if elected, Brazil would have an allied government, and that once elected, he would negotiate agreements that could benefit companies from both countries. Among other objectives, Flá...

The rapporteur of the 6x1 work schedule proposal presented his report, the Special Committee on the MEI revenue cap increase continues discussions, and the government is focused on approving the proposal quickly

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2026

Federal Deputy Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA), rapporteur of the proposal to end the 6-on-1-off work schedule, presented his report yesterday before the Special Committee discussing the matter. The goal is to vote on the proposal in committee on Wednesday and subsequently move it to the Lower House...

Questions after Flávio's setback and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2026

This will be a decisive week for the vote on the 6x1 work schedule proposal. Following the presentation of the rapporteur’s opinion, the expectation is that the text will be submitted to the Special Committee and then to the floor of the Lower House. Bills related to rural debt are also on the ag...

The Ministry of Finance is finalizing the framework for the Desenrola program, the House should vote on the 6x1 work schedule next week, and results of four presidential polls may be released today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2026

Finance Minister Dario Durigan said yesterday that the Ministry is finalizing the “framework” for a new version of the Desenrola program aimed at consumers who remain current on their payments but face a risk of indebtedness. The Lower House’s final debate and vote on the proposed constitutional ...

Lula takes the lead in latest poll, the Senate received the report on the PEC that expands the autonomy of the Central Bank, and the debate over the 6x1 work schedule continues

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2026

Another Vox poll on the presidential election was released yesterday. Lula leads both the first- and second-round simulations. In the first round, the president posts 41.5%, while Flavio Bolsonaro has 31.1%. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) stands at 5.9% and Romeu Zema (Novo) at 4.1%. Yesterday, the Constit...

Flávio Bolsonaro visited Vorcaro when he was arrested, Lula continues to try to improve his approval ratings, and the report on the 6x1 work schedule should be submitted next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2026

Yesterday, new information involving Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and former banker Daniel Vorcaro was made public. According to the news outlet Metrópoles, Flavio visited Vorcaro after the former banker’s arrest late last year. Meanwhile, Lula continues to announce measures aimed at improving his ap...

The first poll since Flávio Bolsonaro’s leaked audio recordings has been published, Lula will launch a program to help finance vehicles, and discussions on the 6x1 work schedule continue

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2026

The first AtlasIntel presidential polling data since the release of audio recordings involving Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and banker Daniel Vorcaro has just been released. Flávio Bolsonaro dropped six percentage points and now holds 41.8% of voter intentions against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva...

Flávio under pressure and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2026

The rapporteur of the bill addressing the end of the 6x1 work schedule, Congressman Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA), is set to present his report before the Lower House Special Committee. In the Senate, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) may move forward with the rare earths bill and the Pu...

Congressman Prates should present his report on the 6x1 work schedule PECs, the House may vote on the fuel tax break offset bill, and AtlasIntel will release a presidential voting intention poll tomorrow

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2026

On Wednesday (May 20), Congressman Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA) is expected to present his report on the proposed constitutional amendments (PECs) addressing the end of the 6x1 work schedule. A transition rule is currently under negotiation. The Lower House may vote this week on Complementary Bil...