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Ukrainian presidential debate will probably not save Poroshenko
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Apr 2019

The two Ukrainian presidential candidates are due to debate at 19:00 local time today. President Poroshenko is hoping he can expose his challenger Zelenskiy as a leightweight. Even if it goes well for Poroshenko it is probably too late as polling day is April 21. One poll showed 72% of people wil...

Healthy profits for Russian hydrocarbons but no coherent strategy
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Apr 2019

OPEC + is considering how to handle the market supply balance. Oil prices are reaching USD 70 a barrel. This is good news for Rosneft and other Russian oil companies. Russia has only reduced production by half as much as OPEC asked. OPEC members are considering raising production. Too abrupt a pr...

German investment in Russia highest since 2008
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2019

German investment in Russia reached over EUR 3 billion in 2018. This was the highest figure since 2008. However, in those 10 years the number of German businesses in Russia declined from 6 000 to 4 500. The 2018 investment figure was EUR 3.2 billion: a twofold increase on the 2017 figure.Germany ...

St Petersburg wins instead of Kazan in High Speed Rail plan
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2019

President Putin has signed off on a plan to improve High Speed Rail (HSR) between Moscow and St Petersburg. The plan for the HSR from Moscow to Nizhny Novgorod and then to Kazan has been aborted. Putin wants to upgrade HSR between Moscow and St Petersburg which is his native city. Lack of resourc...

Russian Government plan to increase non-fuel exports
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2019

Finance Minister Siluanov visited the Samsung Electronics Plant in Kaluga Region on April 12. His mission was to assess how the national project for the development of exports is progressing. This plan excludes hydrocarbons since Russia has no difficulty selling those. He was there with bureaucra...

Overthrow of Sudanese President is bad news for Russia
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2019

On April 11 the Sudanese Army ousted President Omar Bashir. This military coup is unwelcome news in Moscow because Russia had a good relationship with Bashir. Bashir was one of the few Arab leaders never to have withdrawn recognition from the Assad Government in Syria. He even visited Syria last ...

CBR worried about growing personal debt
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Apr 2019

The first deputy of the Bank of Russia (CBR) has voiced her fear that excessive personal and company debt is holding the economy back. Ksenia Yudaeva said that the issue seems to be a permanent one and exacerbating social problems. In 2015 many salaries were slashed due to a sharp economic contra...

Kazakhstan calls early presidential election
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2019

Tokayev was only inaugurated last month as acting president. On April 9 he announced a snap election will be held on June 9. The election was due to be held in April 2020. Why is he bringing it forward? He is capitalizing on his honeymoon with the public. Election have been brought forward before...

Fuel price agreement agreed in Russia
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2019

The oil sector has agreed to prolong its gentleman's agreement with the government to keep oil prices as static as possible. Vice Premier Dmitry Kozak was pleased to announce this on 5 April. The government considers it important to maintain price continuity as oil taxes are changing and oil refi...

Nazarbayev resigns while retaining power: looking ahead
CIS POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2019

On March 19, Nursultan Nazarbayev announced on TV his resignation from the position of President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Kassym-Jomart Tokaev, speaker of the Senate, will temporarily fulfill the functions of the President. Tokaev’s previous position, second in the Constitutional hierarchy,...

Prospects for a Zelenskiy presidency
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2019

Zelenskiy looks like he is heading for victory in the second round of elections. Yulia Tymoshenko surprised some by refusing to endorse either candidate now that she has been knocked out of the election. Some expected her to give her backing to Zelenskiy. Markets have reacted positively to the li...

Zelenskiy wins first round of Ukrainian presidential election
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2019

As we predicted Zelenskiy came top in the first round. What surprised everyone is how he outperformed the polls and won 30%. Sitting President Poroshenko came second with a distant 16%. Yulia Tymoshenko came third. Poroshenko's foes said he would rig the poll. There is scant evidence of this. Por...

Ukraine going to the polls
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2019

Volodymyr Zelenskiy is the frontrunner on 24.8% according to the Razmukov Center. President Poroshenko is on 22% in the same poll. Yulia Tymoshenko is rated at 14.8%. As Poroshenko controls the election commission it might be who counts the votes and not who gets most votes that counts! One thing...

Essential CIS Politics: Russia is surprisingly relaxed about the threat of more US sanctions
CIS POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2019

* Russia is surprisingly relaxed about the threat of more US sanctions. * The Ukrainian presidential election is wide open. * The TAPI pipeline could be a game changer for Turkmenistan.

Russian shipbuilding stalls
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019

Last year Russia built 89 large and medium sized ships. This includes 46 civilian and 43 military vessels. The cost was USD 2.6 billion. In 2017 the figure was 98 ships for USD 1.6 billion. 70% of the value or the orders comes from the Russian Navy. The increase in the money spent on ships is mai...

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