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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China’s monetary policy and U.S. rates
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Apr 2021

“China’s odd monetary transmission mechanisms are largely function of distortions to the Chinese economy, particularly in the Chinese commercial banking system.” John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Rising interest rates in the U.S. could increase capital flight pressure on Chi...

No signs of credit restraint in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Mar 2021

There is widespread talk within Beijing following the leadership meetings about a return to lower credit growth following years of excesses. This is being echoed by the western media. The Financial Times just published a piece saying that Xi Jinping is “curbing the credit fuelled excesses of the ...

Bad loans and the AMCs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Mar 2021

There is a longstanding debate about the size of bad loans in China’s banking system. The shortage of data has made it difficult for external analysts to arrive at a comprehensive number that would clarify the banks’ actual financial position. The level of non-performing loans (NPLs) within...

More problems in Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Feb 2021

A number of events have raised the level of concern among local residents about the future of Hong Kong. These include the arrest of media enterpreneur Jimmy Lai and of former leglisator and pro-democracy activist Martin Lee, the imposition of nationalist curriculum in the lower schools, and the ...

What’s behind the latest attack on Ant?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Feb 2021

The Wall Street Journal published an article blaming the cancellation of the Ant Group IPO on corrupt insider dealings in the allocation of shares. While the article is fascinating, it serves too neatly Beijing’s interest in clipping the wings of Jack Ma and Alibaba. The documents conveniently le...

China’s stimulus and the bond market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Feb 2021

What is the state of China’s stimulus programs in 2021 and can it be sustained? If the consumer sector fails to pick up speed – as is currently the case, particularly in services – how will China generate growth? The bond market has been an important source of credit, with a 13 percent rise in ou...

HNA and debt in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Feb 2021

One of China’s largest conglomerates, HNA, has been under a cloud for several years, and has officially been put in bankruptcy reorganization under the Chinese courts. Several senior former executives have been accused of corruption for stealing as much as US$10 billion from HNA company units. Th...

Consumer sector metrics in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Jan 2021

As China moves into 2021, two key questions for the economy are: 1) Will consumer spending increase to match the gains in other sectors? 2) Will China be able to reduce the stimulus through state spending on fixed asset investment? The official data on retail sales for December 2020 and FY2020...

Truck traffic, Covid-19 and the economy in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Jan 2021

There is continued debate about the severity of Covid-19 in China, and more generally, about the accuracy of the country’s economic data. The latest WHO visit to China starting on January 14 to assess the source and impact of Covid-19 has continued to raise questions about the transparency of the...

Retail sales and China’s “Super Cities”
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Jan 2021

Retail sales have declined due to Covid. However, we expect a strong pick-up in sales as the impact of Covid weakens because of several factors. First, the growth in household bank deposits has remained strong; and second, the majority of national retail sales occur in a small subset of the count...

Jack Ma, the Party and US-China Relations
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Jan 2021

There have been a number of key political events in China that will have significant impact on the economy, the financial system, and the international investment environment. These include: 1) The rise of the Party in the economy; 2) The postponement of the Ant Group IPO and the subsequent i...

More problems for Ant
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Dec 2020

This report is a quick comment on the latest statement by the PBOC on Ant. The Wall Street Journal Sunday reported that Ant is being forced out of the lending business. And that’s not the only encroachment on the fintech sector. According to Foreign Policy magazine (quoted by Business Insider), t...

Four predictions for China in 2021
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Dec 2020

We make four predictions for China in 2021: * Weakening of the RMB * Weaker economic conditions * Real deleveraging * Pressure on ​local bonds.

Evergrande and China’s Property Bubble
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Dec 2020

Rising debt at one of China’s largest developers, Evergrande, has led to concerns that China’s property market may be on the verge of collapse. Evergrande has approximately US$120 billion in debt and may have trouble raising financing. The issue, though, is not just the cash position of Evergrand...

Defaults in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Nov 2020

The recent wave of defaults has raised questions about China’s support for the state sector. It is unusual for Beijing to allow state firms to default on their bond or debt obligations, which opens the possibility of a failure of the state sector, and thus a risk to the economy from a systemic co...

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