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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China virus check – week ending July 27
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Jul 2020

​Our latest data for economic activity in China showed mixed data for the most recent period. Coal use for electricity fell, which could signal weakness in the industrial sector, which has been the prime generator of economic growth under Beijing’s stimulus measures. Commercial property sales als...

Oil demand in China: a short-term bounce?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jul 2020

China has clearly been one of the success stories in handling the coronavirus. The flattening of the curve was a reflection of the nature of the tightly controlled political system. The numbers may not be completely trustworthy but even at multiples the caseload is still much lower than in other ...

Emerging markets and the new oil calculus - China, GCC, Mexico, Russia, Venezuela
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Jul 2020

​ In our live webinar on the “new normal” in the oil industry, Andrew Collier, Justin Alexander, Mauricio Gonzalez, Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Ruth Krivoy discuss the recent radical changes in supply and demand in the energy markets and their impact on emerging market economies. Our webinar is modera...

China virus check – week ending July 20
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jul 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a continued split between sectors relating to heavy industry and infrastructure and the retail portion of the economy. Power generation and steel production are at high levels while car sales dipped sharply in July, and other indicators of loca...

China virus check – week ending July 13
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Jul 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends with a steady increase in several factors, including the freight index and traffic indicators, while property sales continue to skyrocket: 1) Coal usage in the power industry declined moderately. 2) ...

US sanctions and the RMB
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jul 2020

Reuters has reported that the Chinese banks are considering alternatives to the US dollar in case the US imposes sanctions on the banks for their support of the National Security Law in Hong Kong. As Reuters noted in an article posted on July 10: "In worst-case scenarios under consideration by...

China virus check – week ending July 6
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jul 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Coal use in the power industry was largely unchanged. 2) Iron ore blast furnace operating rates trended slightly higher but remain below year-earlier levels. 3) Traffic congestion rose sl...

Household debt and the shadow banking market in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Jul 2020

China’s recovery will depend on the ability of households to continue to consume. However, over the past several years, household debt has climbed steadily. This particularly includes mortgage debt. Meanwhile, investments in shadow banking through Wealth Management Products have remained at high ...

China virus check – week ending June 29
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Jul 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Coal had a positive bias for the week. 2) Iron ore blast furnace operating rates trended upward but remain below year-earlier levels. 3) Traffic congestion fell slightly W/W but is above year-ago ...

Capital flight and Hong Kong fund management
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Jun 2020

One of the concerns about the National Security Law is its impact on China’s role as an international financial center. The legal structure for financial transactions will not be directly affected. However, any significant contravention of global norms for individual protestors may face oppositio...

China virus check - week ending June 22
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Jun 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Coal consumption in the power industry flattened out while operations for iron ore blast furnaces were unchanged. 2) Traffic congestion was surprisingly weak. This could signal intra-city problems relati...

Corporates in Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Jun 2020

China is proposing changes to the Basic Law that will fundamentally alter Hong Kong. Although the proposals for the new security law have not been outlined in detail, they are likely to include further close monitoring of behavior in general, increased intervention in the legal system by Beijing,...

China virus check – week ending June 15
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Jun 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Rising coal consumption in the power industry and slightly positive operations for iron ore blast furnaces. 2) Traffic congestion was surprisingly weak. 3) Expressway traffic was generally positive W/W...

The failure of China’s SME program
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Jun 2020

The success of China’s stimulus measures will depend on the ability of the financial system to deliver capital to the most profitable – and highest employing – sectors. Is China successful in this? The anecdotal information suggests that loans to small businesses don’t always reach the best custo...

China virus check – week of June 8
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Jun 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows some pockets of economic growth, but overall flat-to-negative activity: 1) Rising coal consumption in the power industry, but relatively flat operations for iron ore blast furnaces. 2) Traffic congestion is flat to down. 3) Expressway traf...

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