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Databanks
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Argentina databank Mar 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 17
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NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi GDP & budget, Dubai recovery signs, new Kuwaiti cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Dec 2020 · 1 response
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * 2021 oil demand was revised down further, only making up about 60% of the 2020 decline. * Iranian statements were supportive of a deal with Biden but the execution of a jo...
GULF WEEKLY: UAE F-35s pass Senate, Morocco normalises, Qatar budgets conservatively
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The Gulf Summit may happen in Riyadh rather than Bahrain to facilitate a Qatar deal. ● The JCPOA was a central focus at the Manama Dialogue and Europe could play a key roll ...
KUWAIT: New parliament seems more oppositional, but will pass debt law
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Dec 2020
* It was a rare achievement for the outgoing parliament to complete a four-year term. * The newly elected parliament looks more oppositional, although many new MPs are relative unknowns, given a 62% turnover. * The picture should become clearer in the upcoming vote for a speaker on December 15....
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC tapers by 0.5m b/d, PMIs rise strongly, hopes for Saudi-Qatar deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Dec 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rallied on the OPEC+ decision to taper by 0.5m b/d, vs the original plan for 2m. * Biden’s Iran challenge was complicated by approval of a law rolling back nuclear com...
Fakhrizadeh killing could speed lifting of sanctions if Iran shows restraint
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Dec 2020
If Iran maintains strategic patience in responding to the killing of its nuclear scientist, despite pressure from hardliners in parliament, the incident should actually increase the urgency of the Biden Administration in quickly restoring the JCPOA, our baseline scenario. However, if there are fu...
An imminent breakthrough on the Qatar rift is possible but unlikely
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Nov 2020
* A regional visit by Jared Kushner has raised hopes of a breakthrough on the rift, although he is more focused on the Israel normalization push. * The best outcome, still unlikely, is an easing of the airspace blockade by Saudi Arabia. * For Saudi Arabia a resolution could help ease tensions w...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil rallies, Dubai & Oman tap bonds, Bibi visits MBS
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Nov 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil touched $49, the highest since the March OPEC+ meeting, ahead of the next key meeting. We anticipate a 3-month delay to the 2m b/d taper. * MBS hosted Israel’s prime m...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco bond, UAE OPEC exit rumors, Trump considered an Iran strike
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Nov 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ is musing a 3-6 month taper delay, and there are rumors the UAE will quit (it won’t...yet). * Trump considered a strike on Iran, while Zarif urged Biden not to wait ...
GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain’s PM dies, oil caught between vaccine & lockdowns, Saudi on negative outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Nov 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rallied on vaccine news before concerns about current lockdowns reasserted themselves. * Saudi Arabia took a day longer than the other Gulf States to congratulate Bide...
Vaccine impact on the Gulf's economy and markets
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Nov 2020
The renewed hope for effective vaccines is a strong boost for the region, including through higher oil prices and increased tourism, and the Gulf should be at the forefront in rolling out vaccines. Bonds will likely continue rallying but volatility will set in after the initial surge, when doubts...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco results, Bahrain budget, OPEC+ mulls deeper cuts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Nov 2020 · 1 response
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * A divided US government could benefit the region due to lower yields and a weaker dollar. * A President Biden, even without the Senate, will shift policy on Iran and Saud...
OMAN: Tawazun plan light on details
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2020 · 1 response
Oman has finally released basic details of its Tawazun fiscal balance plan, which aims to reduce the deficit to 1.7% of GDP by 2024. The proposal has confirmed some of the items that we have been anticipating for over a year, including an initiative to introduce a personal income tax, but the pla...
Final thoughts on the impact of the US election on the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2020
The outcome of the US elections will have significant implications for the GCC. The possibility of a conflict with Iran would significantly increase in a second Trump term. Under Biden, a new nuclear deal is expected, but wouldn't be easy given the increasing hardline dominance within Iran. A foc...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit eases, Oman got Qatari cash, France faces boycott
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Oct 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil fell to a five-month low below $38 on Covid worries and revived Libyan production. * The Saudi Q3 deficit eased to -$10.9bn on stronger oil and VAT revenue. * Major r...
UAE: Sharjah and RAK downgraded by S&P
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Oct 2020
* The downgrades were to record lows of A- (RAK) and BBB- (Sharjah). * The Covid crisis has harmed the activity they rely on to generate fees and tax revenue. * RAK runs surpluses and has more liquid assets than debt. * Sharjah has a large structural deficit relative to its revenue and s...