GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights | Gulf Countries

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Daily covid cases hit a new record in the GCC but so far there have been very few recent deaths. * OPEC+ stuck with its taper but unrest in Kazakhstan has pushed oil up to $82. * PMIs remained strong in Qatar and UAE but...

OMAN: 2022 budget looks promising, despite some slippage in consolidation

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2022 · 1 response

Oman’s budget was released on Sunday, building on headline numbers announced a few weeks ago, along with more details of the preliminary 2021 outturn. Broadly speaking, the 2021 results and the 2022 budget show the government’s continued seriousness about fiscal consolidation, even after the unex...

GULF WEEKLY: Covid and oil rebound, Kuwait forms government, Shell signs Oman gas deal

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Dec 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases have increased 10-fold in two weeks, particularly in the UAE, but deaths remain low. * Oil has rebounded to $79, partly due to supply problems, including in Libya (where elections were postponed). * There appe...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC summit, Saudi Q3 GDP, Israeli PM visits UAE

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Dec 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and IEA have concluded Omicron won’t have much of an impact on oil demand. * The GCC summit was a fairly standard affair, with the most notable features being King Salman’s absence and a softer approach to Iran in th...

Saudi budgets for a rare surplus and Oman sees its deficit narrowing

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

* The estimated 2021 Saudi deficit of -2.7% of GDP, the least since 2013, is larger than our forecast largely because of a sharp drop in revenue remitted from sovereign wealth funds. * The oil price assumption for 2022 has been hiked to about $65 (from $50 in the September pre-budget statement),...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE shifts its weekend, MBS completes his Gulf tour, Qatar releases budget

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Dec 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks today, although the US is upping the pressure. * MBS completed his tour of the Gulf in Kuwait today. The most visible immediate outcome of the tour were agreements signed...

SAUDI: MBS’s Gulf-wide tour signals renewed confidence at a time of major foreign policy shifts

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Dec 2021

MBS arrived in Oman today on the first leg of a 5-country Gulf tour, his first significant foreign trip in two years. It comes ahead of Saudi Arabia's hosting of the annual Gulf summit and could result in progress in both GCC relations and also on wider regional issues such as Lebanon, Iran and T...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ sticks with taper, S&P stabilizes Bahrain, Macron sells jets to UAE

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Dec 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ surprised markets by sticking with its taper but hinted that it could reconsider mid-month if needed. * Iran nuclear talks finally reconvened, just as Iran restarted enrichment at a controversial underground site. ...

Omicron and the Gulf: The hit to oil is fiscally manageable, as are health risks

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Nov 2021

The emergence of yet another worrying Covid variant has raised concerns in the Gulf, as it has globally. No cases have been identified in the region yet, but its international connectivity, including as a hub for travel from Africa, does present vulnerabilities, as has been the case for previous ...

GULF WEEKLY: Covid variant knocks oil, MBZ visits Turkey, Kuwait fiscal data to October

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Nov 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices took a hit, more from the new Covid variant than the US strategic reserves release plan. * Gulf states may be split on whether to pause the taper at next week's OPEC+ meeting. * A $15bn Aramco investment into ...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s Crown Prince will oversee government formation, QCB governor appointed, Saudi floating city envisaged

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Nov 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped below $80 on Covid concerns and the potential release of strategic reserves. However, continued production problems for some OPEC members is more bullish for 2022 prices. * Saudi Arabia naturalized new citizens...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi issues bonds as Moody’s stabilizes, Kuwait pardons opposition and cabinet resigns, Oman slashes business fees

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Nov 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia issued $3.25bn in 30-year bonds and 9.5-year sukuk and is looking to refinance a $16bn loan. * Moody’s raised the Saudi outlook back to Stable on improved fiscal policy effectiveness. * The Saudi flash GDP show...

GULF WEEKLY: Strong October PMIs, Dubai privatization drive, Dubai tourism rises in September

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Nov 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck with its 400k b/d taper in December, despite US pressure. Iran will return to nuclear talks at the end of the month. * MBS was a no-show at the G20 and COP26, although other Gulf leaders attended. Gulf states p...

SAUDI: The Q3 fiscal surplus means the 2021 outturn should nearly balance, and we expect a 2%+ surplus in 2022

GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 03 Nov 2021

* The 0.9% of GDP surplus in Q3 was only the second on record in the quarterly series. * VAT revenue beat our expectations, and oil was in line, given higher prices and production. * Spending dipped in Q3 but is still likely to come in a little above budget. * We have halved our deficit foreca...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi & Bahrain pledge net-zero, Kuwait oil capacity declines, Qatar plans citizenship reform

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Oct 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia and Bahrain made 2060 net-zero pledges. * Saudi Arabia issued a record number of investment licenses in Q3, persuaded more multinationals to base their regional HQs in Riyadh and saw improved attendance at th...