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COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The economic implications of Covid for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Sep 2020
This extended report assesses how the Covid crisis exposed some of the economic vulnerabilities of Gulf states and how the crisis and policy responses relate to the long-term challenges the Gulf faces from the energy transition and structural weaknesses in their economies. Please follow up on the...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops, Covid cases rise, Bahrain issues, Trump supports MBS
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Sep 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil fell to a three-month low of $39 on demand weakness and rising stocks. * Coronavirus cases are rising sharply again in Bahrain and UAE. * Bahrain issued $2bn at lower...
GULF WEEKLY: Dubai issues, Oman VAT approved, PMIs weaken, Israelis fly to UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Sep 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Dubai issued $2bn in bonds and sukuk, and Bahrain started talks with banks about an issuance to take advantage of the sharp fall in yields. * The first Israel-UAE flight t...
GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi 2070 bond, Bahrain lifts debt ceiling, UN opposes snapback sanctions
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Aug 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * FTSE Russell launched a Saudi local bond index covering $73bn in securities. * Concerns grew about Saudi political detainees, including MBN and Saad Aljabri’s relatives. ...
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait ends RFFG transfers, Saudi inflation spikes, US pushes for sanctions snapback
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Aug 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oman saw the biggest government restructuring in a decade. * Kuwait’s parliament suspended revenue transfers to the RFFG but kicked back a vote on the debt law for two wee...
OMAN: Cabinet reshuffled and VAT debated, but revenues collapse and Fitch downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2020 · 2 responses
There has been a flurry of Oman developments in the last few days, positive and negative, which are important to assess as the country prepares for a bond issuance in the relatively near future (well before its recently-closed $2bn bridge loan matures in mid-2021). Negative Fitch downgrad...
GULF WEEKLY: UAE-Israel normalization, Aramco dividend, Oman loan, Bahrain downgrade
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Aug 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The UAE normalized relations with Israel, linking this to a suspension of annexation plans. ● Oil had a flat week as the IEA and OPEC both reduced their demand expectations....
GULF WEEKLY: PMIs expand, Beirut port explosion, Jabri alleges Saudi assassination plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Aug 2020 · 1 response
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * PMIs expanded in Saudi and UAE and showed a very strong rebound in Qatar. * Oil strengthened, despite the OPEC+ taper, as Iraq recommitted to compensatory cuts. * A forme...
GULF WEEKLY: Qatar/Kuwait drop GDP data, South Yemen separatists drop self-rule, PIF drops Newcastle bid
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jul 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The near-term outlook for oil is weakening after a recent surge partly driven by dollar weakness * Saudi posted a -$29bn deficit in Q2 but there were signs of expenditure ...
SAUDI: Deficit rises to $29bn in Q2 but underlying fiscal performance looks okay
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Jul 2020 · 2 responses
Aramco drew on its cash reserves to pay a large dividend, so oil revenue fell by less than exports. Spending continued to fall as ongoing consolidation exceeded stimulus measures, including cuts in social benefits and the military. Even so, the deficit tripled q/q to $29.1bn. Part of the reason ...
GULF WEEKLY: Rulers hospitalized, Qatar seeks compensation, Oman VAT law discussed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jul 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Kuwait’s emir has flown to the Mayo Clinic after emergency bladder surgery. * The Saudi king is recovering in Riyadh after gallbladder surgery. * MBS’s succession as King...
KUWAIT: Emir suffers health scare just as credit rating put on negative outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jul 2020
The 91-year old emir underwent undisclosed surgery on Saturday. The key question is when succession will happen and who will be the next crown prince. This all comes as difficulties in fiscal reform and determining how to finance the deficit have resulted in a series of rating actions, including ...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ will taper, ICJ backs Qatar, Oman discusses VAT law, Sharjah bond
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jul 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ is pressing ahead with its taper but Libya’s oil blockade is back on. * The ICJ ruled in Qatar’s favor over the airspace blockade but Saudi banned beIN Sports. * Th...
GULF WEEKLY: PMIs rise with reopenings, Dubai firms junked and UAE government restructured
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jul 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil demand remains uncertain but OPEC+ will raise August output, and Libyan exports are restarting. * PMIs rose in most of the region and signaled a return to expansion ...
BAHRAIN: Q1 GDP outturn is worse than it initially looks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jul 2020
Bahrain’s GDP contracted by -1.1% y/y in Q1, similar to Saudi's but much less than Dubai's. One bright point was growth in oil & gas, due to increased gas output to power Alba’s expansion. Hotels contracted by a stunning -68% y/y, which is probably a substantial overestimate. However, the rest of...