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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

QATAR: Soccer and a summit could resolve Gulf dispute within weeks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Nov 2019

* We are more optimistic than we have been in two years for a breakthrough in the Gulf dispute. * Football teams from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE have just arrived in Doha for the Gulf Cup. * If their citizens also attend as fans and the tone is friendly, this will build positive momentum. *...

QATAR: Gas reserve/expansion hike is strongly credit positive
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

At a press conference in Doha today, the Minister of Energy, Saad al-Kaabi, made the unexpected and dramatic announcement that new appraisals have extended the range of North Field, including onshore. North Field was already scoped as the world's largest and wettest gasfield (with much higher lev...

​Gulf weekly: Kuwait gets new PM and Aramco IPO cut in half
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Nov 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Having scaled back its IPO, Aramco cancelled its international roadshow. * Kuwait’s emir sacked two feuding ministers (including his son) and appoi...

An end to the Trump presidency could significantly impact the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Nov 2019

* Trump has already had a major impact on the Gulf, including in Saudi domestic politics. * The 2020 election is hard to call given a divided Democratic field, the impeachment process and past polling shortcomings in swing states. * The Democrats have all committed to rejoining the Iran nuclear...

​Gulf weekly: Kuwait’s government resigns and Aramco downsizes IPO
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Nov 2019

The Gulf Weekly is intended as a skimmable summary of key developments, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Key headlines include: * Aramco has scaled back its IPO to 1.5% at a $1.6-1.7trn on weak foreign demand. * Kuwait’s government resigned, amidst signs of a rift be...

OMAN: The growth outlook brightens the further out you look
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Nov 2019

Budget cuts and OPEC+ quotas will remain a drag on growth in 2020. 2021 looks brighter with new gas projects likely to come on stream, helping the economy and fiscal position, although oil production may remain capped by OPEC+. Further out, Oman has genuine long-term diversification potential tha...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco woos investors and Adu Dhabi hikes its oil and gas reserves
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Nov 2019

Aramco released its prospectus and continued efforts to woo and cajole IPO investors, but questions remain. Abu Dhabi announced revised up its oil & gas reserves by the most in over 30 years, jumping to 6th place globally. Kuwait experienced rare protests (inspired by Iraq and Lebanon) and Qatar ...

SAUDI: Aramco’s valuation and the IPO’s impact on bond issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Nov 2019

​Information is trickling out about the Aramco IPO. Given the years of preparation and then the latest delay in October, it’s somewhat surprising that more wasn’t announced last Sunday. Our report includes an overview of valuations (a massive range from $1.1-2.3trn), the likely impact of the IPO ...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco is a go, central banks mirror Fed, PMs quit in Lebanon and Iraq
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Nov 2019

Economically the regional focus was on Saudi Arabia this week as Aramco formally announced its IPO, the annual Future Investment Initiative conference drew in executives and world leaders and new fiscal data was released. Meanwhile, political turmoil continued in the periphery, with protests brin...

UAE: Economy likely to overcome weak real estate sector
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Nov 2019

Weakness in the UAE’s real estate sector is unlikely to spread to the wider economy as government measures and the 2020 World Expo should provide relief and banks are well insulated. A new committee has been formed in Dubai, new property ownership rules have been introduced in Abu Dhabi and th...

LEBANON: Resignation gambit means new Hariri government is needed to avert a crisis
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 31 Oct 2019

The resignation of the Lebanese PM, Saad al-Hariri, is the political wildcard that we were concerned about in our 22 Oct analysis. However, the most likely scenario is that Hariri will actually remain on as prime minister with the authority to rejig the cabinet slightly, including bringing in som...

BAHRAIN: Austerity will fall short of targets and more Gulf funding will be needed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Oct 2019

We don’t think that Bahrain’s ambitious Fiscal Balance Program will come close to its targets due to austerity fatigue and sharply lower oil prices. Instead, the deficit will remain around 5-7% of GDP, and debt-to-GDP will rise to 110% by 2022, requiring about $15bn in financing in 2019-22. B...

Gulf weekly: Business environment improves, Saudi replaces foreign minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Oct 2019

Major recent improvements in Gulf business environments were codified in the World Bank’s annual Doing Business Index. Saudi Arabia appointed a new foreign minister and mediated a Yemeni power-sharing deal and Oman held elections. This came amidst another busy week in Middle Eastern politics, wit...

​Gulf support likely if Lebanon's budget mollifies other donors
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Oct 2019

The cabinet approval of an ambitious 2020 budget is an important step but it still needs parliamentary approval and many details remain unclear, particularly on cutting interest on local debt. Its proposal to cut the deficit by 10 percentage to -0.6% of GDP is unrealistic but even going half this...

​Gulf weekly: Putin visits, Aramco postpones, Divided Zone restart nears
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Oct 2019

Global attention was focused on the Turkish invasion of Northern Syria, where the US has negotiated a temporary ceasefire but Russia may have a bigger role in determining the longterm term outcome. By chance this happened in a week when Putin was visiting Saudi and the UAE, both of which are deep...

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