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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: Oil dips on global jitters, Saudi leads Sudan evacuations, Bahrain records deflation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil fell further on jitters about the US and global economy, lower than before the OPEC+ cuts. * S&P put Egypt on a Negative outlook amidst worries about GCC investment and other financing. * Gulf states, notably Bahrain ...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF gets another 4% of Aramco, Kuwait calls elections, UAE-Qatar embassies to reopen, Sudan conflict raises concerns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Apr 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states called for an end to conflict in Sudan, where they have links to both sides of the military. * Saudi Arabia transferred 4% of Aramco to PIF, which will reduce central government annual fiscal revenue by 1%. * ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil supply looks tight in H2, regional reconciliation advances, Fitch positive on Oman, Sinopec invests in Qatar LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose further as OPEC and IEA monthly reports forecast a 2m b/d supply gap in H2. * Bahrain and Qatar will re-establish diplomatic relations, a boost to Bahrain’s economy. * The IMF revised down GCC fiscal forecasts on...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades KSA, Bahrain issues budget and bonds, Iran-GCC detente continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Fitch upgraded KSA to A+ due to reform commitment and easing geopolitical risks. * The PMI remained strong at 58.7 in KSA in March and rose to 55.9 in the UAE and 53.8 in Qatar. * Saudi Arabia has reportedly assured the I...

The OPEC+ April surprise
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2023 · 1 response

* Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Oman are cutting production by -4.8% from May. * Four other OPEC+ members made similar commitments, and Russia extended its existing voluntary cut. * Overall, the actual cuts committed to are more than those announced in October. * Prices have rallied by about 6...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco finalizes China investments, Abu Dhabi crown prince appointed, Fitch gives Qatar a positive outlook, Oman prepays $1.5bn loan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has partly rebounded after Iraq temporarily halted 450k b/d in pipeline exports via Turkey. * UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia all ranked in the top 25 in AT Kearney’s FDI confidence index. * Unemployment amongst Saudi nat...

GULF WEEKLY: All except Kuwait hike rates, Saudi relations with Iran and Syria advance, Kuwait’s political crisis deepens
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Mar 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf central banks, except for Kuwait’s, mirrored the Fed’s +25bp hike, as usual. * S&P upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to A, and Moody’s added a positive outlook. * Saudi and Qatari investors were hit hard by Credi...

Saudi Arabia’s ratings improve while Kuwait’s political crisis deepens
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2023

There were some significant and potentially market-moving developments in the Gulf over the weekend and so we are putting out a quick note, rather than waiting to roll up our analysis into our weekly briefing on Friday. * Saudi Arabia received a rating upgrade from S&P and a positive outlook f...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil tanks, Iran deal reverberates, Riyadh Air is launched, UAE surplus at 11% of GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dropped sharply to $72, the lowest since 2021, partly due to derivatives market factors. * Gulf banks are insulated from the current crisis but Saudi and Qatar own 17% of Credit Suisse. * Moody’s sees the Saudi-Iran rap...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi-Iran ties restored, Qatar and Abu Dhabi reshuffle officials, Saudi Q4 GDP & fiscal data
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed in China to restore diplomatic relations after a 7 years hiatus. * Saudi GDP grew by 5.5% in Q4 and 8.7% in 2022 as a whole, close to the flash estimates. * Transport, finance and business ser...

GULF WEEKLY: Adnoc Gas IPO soars, Bahrain MPs reject 2021 accounts, Russian firms in UAE sanctioned, Saudi FM visits Ukraine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Iran is receiving a visit from the IAEA chief as worries grow about its uranium stockpile. * The first projects in KSA’s Shareek private investment scheme were announced, mainly by SOEs. * ACWA Power closed financing for ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman hosts Assad and permits Israeli overflights, Qatar moots bond issuance, GCC deals in Egypt stall
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oman opened its airspace to Israel, and the UAE withdrew a UN resolution criticizing settlements. * Assad visited Oman, and Saudi Arabia is re-evaluating its stance on isolating Syria. * PIF’s acquisition of Egypt’s Unite...

BAHRAIN: Finances improve in 2022 but still fall short of a surplus
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Feb 2023 · 1 response

Bahrain's deficit narrowed to -1.1% of GDP as expenditure rose by less than inflation and oil revenue surged 36% y/y. However, oil revenue growth was held back by lower production, and non-oil revenue continues to undershoot fiscal balance plan targets. The deficit is likely to widen in 2023, and...

GULF WEEKLY: Strong Abu Dhabi GDP, Qatar inflation cools, PIF invests in Oman IPO
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Saudi energy minister affirmed that he expects OPEC+ quotas to remain unchanged all year. * Iran’s president visited China while the US met with the Gulf states to discuss integrated security. * Saudi Arabia sent earthq...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rallies on Russian cuts, PIF green bond, Saudi PMI rebounds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rallied strongly to $86 on factors including Russian supply cuts. * The Saudi PMI rebounded strongly to 58.2 but Qatar’s sank further, to 45.7. * Saudi Arabia may issue bonds in euro and other currencies to refina...

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