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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf IPOs dominate EMEA, IMF reports on Oman, US grants MBS immunity
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Nov 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to a one-month low on Fed worries and as OPEC/IEA revised down demand forecasts. * Kuwait and Qatar voted for Ukraine reparations while other Gulf states abstained. * Gulf IPOs have raised $18bn already this ye...

Little Gulf bond issuance is expected in 2023
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 16 Nov 2022

After quadrupling their debt burden since 2014, the Gulf states are largely pausing new borrowing due to non-oil fiscal reforms, the oil windfall and higher borrowing costs. Oman and Qatar are even actively deleveraging. Sovereign external debt security issuance has dipped from an average of $40b...

GULF WEEKLY: Omani income tax law debated, Empower IPO upsized, Qatar loans $1bn to Egypt
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Nov 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf leaders attended the COP27 summit in Egypt, and Arab funds pledged $24bn in climate funding. * Saudi Arabia has established a hub to capture up to 9m tonnes of CO2 a year. * The Arabian Drilling IPO traded well, a Ma...

QATAR: S&P upgrades the sovereign back to AA
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Hot on the heels of Moody’s positive outlook on Qatar on Wednesday, Standard & Poor’s has gone one step further and upgraded the sovereign back to AA, its level before all three rating agencies downgraded it by a notch in 2017 for a host of reasons including banking liabilities, the Quartet block...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC hikes oil demand forecasts, Saudi VAT revenue dips unexpectedly, Saudi worries about an Iranian attack
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Nov 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC hiked its long-term oil demand growth forecasts by about 2m b/d to 110m in 2045. * Gulf states largely mirrored the Fed rate hikes, as usual, bar Kuwait. * The IMF reduced most fiscal breakeven oil price forecasts, e...

QATAR: Moody's lifts to positive outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2022

Moody's estimates that Qatar's debt has fallen to 42% of GDP and it expects that the improvement will be maintained as new LNG output comes onstream and capex falls after the World Cup.

GULF WEEKLY: PIF announces MENA funds, S&P hikes Sharjah deficits, Shell invests in Qatar LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IEA forecasts lower long-term oil and gas demand because of green investments post-Ukraine. * Saudi Arabia repurchased $1.3bn in bonds but will wait until Q1 to fully allocate its fiscal surplus. * The “Davos in the D...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi issues bonds, Kuwait forms a new government, ADQ takes on Etihad
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia issued $5bn in bonds/sukuk and tendered to buy back $1bn maturing in the next four years. * A Saudi PR campaign insisted the OPEC+ cuts were non-political and that it is not siding with Russia. * Moody’s cred...

Saudi Arabia: Bond issuance and buyback
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 18 Oct 2022

Today the Kingdom announced plans to issue a 6-year sukuk and a 10-year bond, its first dollar issuances in nearly a year, targeting about $3.5-4bn, as well as buying back bonds that mature over the next four years. The buyback tender was announced for the four Eurobonds that mature in 2023-6, wh...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC votes against annexation, oil demand revised down, Iraq picks president
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC, IEA and EIA all revised down 2023 demand growth, and oil softened from last week’s surge. * Our analysis of the updated OPEC supply projections implies relatively flat quotas in 2023. * The US had offered to set a $...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil surges on OPEC+ cuts, Kuwait’s cabinet resigns in a day, PIF issues green bonds, Yemen ceasefire ends
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is surging after the dramatic OPEC+ cuts, which could push the market into deficit in November. * There is fury in the US at Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but little retaliatory action seems viable. * The Yemen ceasefire ...

Gulf states will bear almost all the OPEC+ cut in November, reducing their output by -5%
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Oct 2022

• The true cut will be less than half the stated 2m, given underproduction by most OPEC+ members. • Still, this will push the oil market into a deficit of about -1m b/d in Q4, according to OPEC's most recent published forecasts. • The Gulf states will cut by -5% m/m but this could be offset by ...

SAUDI ARABIA: Pre-budget statement sees 2022 spending up 9% y/y but a 2.3% of GDP surplus
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 30 Sep 2022 · 1 response

The pre-budget statement was published late on Friday evening Riyadh-time (MoF). The final budget, out in December, typically sticks with the expenditure allocation used in this statement but adjusts the revenue estimate in line with the oil outlook at the time. KSA has been producing these state...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwaiti opposition wins election, MBZ visits Oman, MBS becomes PM, Bahrain GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Sep 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to $86 amidst hints that OPEC+ might cut production substantially next week. * PIF is moving ahead with its green bond issuance, disclosing details of its assets in a prospectus. * MBS was promoted to prime ...

GULF WEEKLY: Rates hiked, MBS mediates Russia prisoner release, UAE and Oman GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states hiked interest rates by 75bp, bar Kuwait, which only raised by 25bp. * Oil slipped to the lowest since January despite a record shortfall in OPEC+ production. * There was no progress towards an Iran nuclear de...

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