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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwaiti opposition wins election, MBZ visits Oman, MBS becomes PM, Bahrain GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Sep 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to $86 amidst hints that OPEC+ might cut production substantially next week. * PIF is moving ahead with its green bond issuance, disclosing details of its assets in a prospectus. * MBS was promoted to prime ...

GULF WEEKLY: Rates hiked, MBS mediates Russia prisoner release, UAE and Oman GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states hiked interest rates by 75bp, bar Kuwait, which only raised by 25bp. * Oil slipped to the lowest since January despite a record shortfall in OPEC+ production. * There was no progress towards an Iran nuclear de...

GULF WEEKLY: Nuclear deal hopes fade, Dubai’s PMI hits 3-year high, Sisi visits Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Pessimism grew about an Iran nuclear deal but it avoided additional official censure at the IAEA. * Moody’s said the credit profiles of Oman and Qatar stand to benefit the most from high oil prices. * Saudi inflation acce...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ unexpectedly cuts, Saudi Q2 GDP is strong, UAE may double oil expansion plans
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ cut its quota for the first time since 2020, by just 100k b/d, but Brent crude still dipped below $90. * The Iran nuclear deal may have lost momentum, even as its uranium stockpile reaches critical levels * The Saud...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain’s fiscal deficit eased in 2021, Bahrain’s record Q2 current surplus, violence in Iraq & Libya threatens oil output
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil slipped on recession fears, despite potential production concerns, and an OPEC+ cut is not expected. * OPEC+ sharply revised its forecasts and now sees a 300k b/d supply deficit in 2023, particularly in Q4. * There were...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hints at oil cuts, UAE ambassador returns to Iran, tourism recovers in Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Aug 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Saudi oil minister roiled markets by hinting at possible production cuts. * This came as Iran submitted a “reasonable” response to the EU on the nuclear deal text. * The UAE is sending its ambassador back to Iran afte...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded, Bahrain & Qatar see H1 surpluses, IMF proposes Saudi fiscal rules
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Hopes grew that Iran and the US will compromise to restore the nuclear deal. * Aramco achieved record profits but plans lower-than-expected capex this year. * IMF Article IV praised Saudi policy but urged it to maintain t...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman mulls EDO sukuk amidst H1 surplus, Kuwait hikes rates further, nuclear deal text “final”
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to $100 as the IEA lifted its demand forecasts, even though OPEC reduced its own. * The Iran nuclear deal text was finalized, and political decisions are pending on whether to sign it. * The Saudi ministry o...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+’s tiny taper, Saudi's large Q2 fiscal surplus, Kuwait heads to elections
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ tapered by just 100k b/d but rising US stocks helped knock prices to a six-month low. * Iran nuclear talks are back on in Vienna, in perhaps the final opportunity for a deal. * PMIs remain strong in July in Qatar, S...

GULF WEEKLY: All bar Kuwait hike by 75bp, grand plans unveiled for The Line/Neom, Kuwait has a new prime minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Libyan production has nearly recovered, and the US announced additional strategic oil releases. * OPEC+ sources have downplayed US hopes for a major supply boost in September. * Once again Kuwait limited its rate hike to ...

GULF WEEKLY: Biden-MBS bump fists, Sharjah junked, Oman’s Q1 GDP looks weak
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose this week despite Biden’s Saudi visit and a restart in some Libyan facilities. * Gulf bond issuance was down -80% y/y in H1, and loans were down by -31%. * MBS was likely pleased with the optics of Biden’s visit, d...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi opens airspace to Israel, oil touches post-Ukraine low, Libyan oil blockade may end
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Jul 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly fell to $94 on Thursday, its lowest since the invasion of Ukraine, amidst recession fears. * OPEC sees 2023 demand rising to 103m b/d (and 105.4m in Q4), well ahead of the IEA forecast. * Libya’s oil blockade ...

GULF WEEKLY: Covid wave peaks, Tecom declines after IPO, Kuwait-Bahrain bank merger
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil fell on recession concerns, briefly dipping below $100, despite growing turbulence in Libya. * The Covid wave may have peaked in early July, particularly in KSA, where daily cases have halved. * Saudi’s PMI rose to 57...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ kicks the can, Saudi provides liquidity for banks, Tahnoun visits Doha
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ didn’t announce September allocations, and Macron worried about Saudi and UAE capacity. * US-Iran nuclear talks in Doha apparently made no progress but should reconvene in a few weeks. * Coronavirus infections have ...

UAE: Dubai’s economy neared pre-Covid levels in Q1 but a new Covid wave is now underway
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jun 2022

Dubai's Q1 GDP shows that the non-oil sector as a whole had nearly returned to 2019 levels, albeit this recovery was weaker than in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain because of Dubai's greater exposure to pandemic-hurt sectors such as transport and retail trade. The key tourism sector got off to a weak st...

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