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Macri’s favorite wins primaries in the City of Buenos Aires
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2015 · 2 responses

In yesterday’s simultaneous primary election (PASO) in the City of Buenos Aires, Horacio Larreta, Macri’s favorite, won the PROs primaries, with a significant difference ahead of his direct competitor, Gabriela Michetti, or any other candidates from different parties, for that matter. At current ...

2016: Two (very) different paths lie ahead
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 31 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Whoever runs the economy in the years to come will have to achieve, sooner or later, a balanced budget over the economic cycle (at least on average), a unified and free foreign exchange market with no restrictions on capital flows, foreign trade limited only by tariffs approved ...

The Fiscal Deficit, Stupid
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary In this report, we update the concerns presented a year ago in our report “Dangerous Monetary Arithmetic”. We go into detail with regards the monetary implications of a rising fiscal deficit and the sustainability of the Central Bank’s sterilization cost. The Central Bank steril...

Economic Scenarios: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Feb 2015

Executive Summary For the first time in decades, the electoral year and the political transition toward “a more rational administration” is helping to stabilize the economy. There is a broad consensus that any of the candidates who are leading the polls will make the necessary changes to improve ...

Post RUFO Debt Negotiation
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Dec 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As December 31 gets closer, and the RUFO clause expires 10 years from the first debt swap, the market focuses again on the government’s signals regarding its willingness to negotiate with holdouts. In this report, we will present our perspective on what to expect on this issue d...

How soon will Argentina return to “Common Sense Economics”?
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Dec 2014

“Common sense economics” refers to a countercyclical fiscal policy that tries to generate fiscal surpluses (or at least fiscal balance) when external conditions feed an economic boom and confine fiscal deficits to recessionary scenarios; a monetary policy that targets inflation; trade and exchang...

How Far Is Argentina’s Return To “Common Sense Economics”?
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Dec 2014

Nearing the end of the third quarter of 2012 the Argentine economy is showing clear signs of stagnation, with 25% annual inflation; country risk more than twice that of crisis-suffering Spain; and a black market premium in the foreign exchange market of approximately 40%.This is taking place desp...

The Coin is in the Air
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary In the road toward the presidential election, an element that stands as an inflexion point is the resolution of the holdouts saga, which is keeping the Argentine Republic an outlaw of US justice and preventing access to international credit markets. How this issue is resolved wi...

Moderate Central Bank President Resigns
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Oct 2014

Today Juan Carlos Fábrega presented his resignation as President of Argentina's Central Bank (BCRA). As his replacement President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) appointed Alejandro Vanoli, former president of the National Securities Commission (CNV), the local capital market regulator. Fabr...

Moderate Central Bank President Resigns
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Oct 2014

This Market Brief was originally issued on October 1, 2014 as a post on GSP Direct, the GlobalSource Partners interactive webtool providing clients an initial response to breaking news and developments. Today Juan Carlos Fábrega presented his resignation as President of Argentina's Central Bank (...

Griesa Declares Argentina in Contempt
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Sep 2014

Local press published that Judge Griesa ruled in today’s hearing that Argentina is in contempt. He has not yet declared what fine he will set on Argentina, which he would announce at a later point. Earlier today, anticipating such decision, the Argentine government sent a note of protest to both ...

Another Wait and See
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Sep 2014

Last Friday, during the hearing between Citi Bank and Holdouts regarding whether debt instruments issued under Argentine law are within reach of Griesa’s “pari pasu" interpretation, the judge decided to postpone the definitive resolution and implement a temporary stay to allow holdouts to present...

A Bumpy Road until Elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 26 Sep 2014

The government is facing a complex economic moment. Privately measured activity indicators reflect that Argentina is once more suffering in its history of stagflation. Private consumption is affected by the decline in total wage income and uncertainty regarding key economic variables. Despite the...

Pontius Pilatus’ Court of Appeals
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 20 Sep 2014

The US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit refrained from judging on the appeal presented by Citigroup. The appeal aimed to determine whether judge Griesa’s rulings have the scope to prohibit its local branch (an independent subsidiary, established under Argentine law) to fulfill its obligati...

Congress Approved Debt Swap
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Sep 2014

Minutes ago the Lower House approved the bill to reopen de debt swap with 134 votes in favor and 99 against. In our last market brief “Damage Control”, we briefly discussed the government’s main objectives regarding the debt-swap-reopening initiative: i.e. to allow debt holders to swap out of US ...

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