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Russian macro: balance of payments undergoing radical change
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2022

As the group of “unfriendly” countries is working hard to prepare the mechanism that could impose a price cap on Russian oil exports and is trying to convince other countries to join their club, it is worth looking at Russia’s balance of payments and consider its possible evolution. It looks as t...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2022

The Russian monetary authorities continue to discourage local clients from keeping funds in unfriendly currencies in the domestic financial system. Last week the Russian President signed a decree that allows sanctioned banks to freeze accounts of legal entities nominated in the currency of those ...

Russia’s external balances widen in July
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2022

The Central Bank released its flash estimate of the current account surplus along with the combined balance of goods and services in 7M22. The former reached $166.6 bn while the latter widened to $192.4 bn, i.e., to levels which one couldn’t imagine several months ago. Moreover, it appears that i...

After another week of falling CPI deflation in July is almost certain
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2022

Rosstat reported that in ten days ending August 1, the consumer price index fell by 0.14% w-o-w. The agency has split this number between the two months, and it appears that 0.13% was allocated to July and 0.01% to one day of August. On August 10, Rosstat will publish the official m-o-m inflation...

Russia political pandemic update: Russia-West stand-off to intensify
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Aug 2022

It looks as though after more than five months of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, more time is needed either to sort out issues associated with the everlasting dispute between Russia and the West (the US in particular) or to just cut off relations with the “collective West.” The Russ...

Russian macro: looking for a recession
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jul 2022

According to recent estimates from the Economics Ministry, Russia's GDP contracted by 4.9% y-o-y in June. The contraction deepened after the 4.3% y-o-y decline in May and 2.8% in April. These are just the ministry’s estimates, but not the official SNA numbers to be published by Rosstat later (Ros...

Economy to flatten in 3Q20 after a shock in March and April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2022

Rosstat reported that in 1H22, the aggregate output of the five basic sectors was still up by 0.6% y-o-y 1H22, but it was down by 3.4% and 4.5% y-o-y in 2Q22 and June alone. As repeatedly mentioned in the notes of this series, the performance in various sectors of the economy was volatile and une...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2022

Russia continues to limit gas supply to the EU and explains it for technical reasons. Despite the decision of the Canadian Government to return the gas turbine to the Nord Stream operator, the turbine was not yet delivered due to bureaucratic disputes between the two countries (Germany and Russia...

The key rate cut to 8.00%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jul 2022

The CBR cut the key rate by 150 bps to 8.00%, which is a rational move in the current domestic environment amid continuous efforts of “unfriendly” jurisdictions to damage the country’s economy as much as possible. As Russia gets increasingly isolated from the “unfriendly” financial markets while ...

Russian Macro: Adjusting to a new reality
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jul 2022

As time goes by, trade relations between Russia and the EU that used to be Russia's major trade partner are shrinking. Sanctions on Russia gradually kept evolving into something which Iran had experienced for decades, keeping its economy alive, albeit in a rather peculiar fashion. At this stage, ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2022

Despite the ongoing easing of capital controls, USD and EUR remain toxic in the eyes of domestic investors and corporates. As a result, despite decreased oil prices and verbal interventions by the authorities aimed at weakening the Russian currency, the ruble remains strong. The government has el...

The Russian budget remains in surplus in 1H22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 1H22, the federal budget revenues reached R14.0 trln, i.e., 56.0% of the target. Spending reached R12.6 trln over the same period (53.4% of the annual target). These targets, though, are supposed to be somehow amended once the 2023 draft budget is submitte...

The current account surplus widens in 2Q22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2022

The Central bank reported that Russia's current account surplus widened in 2Q22 to $70.1 bn from $68.4 bn in 1Q22, and reached $138.5 bn in 1H22. In 1H21 this surplus accounted for $39.7 bn. The CBR no longer publishes detailed balance of payments statistics as it used to do, so that a few very a...

Russian political, pandemic update: a clash of civilizations
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Jul 2022

A peculiar mixture of political intolerance, stubbornness and aggressive self-confidence continues flourishing in geopolitics – at least in Russia-related matters. The fudge is an integral element of politics, and the question is whether populations are willing to tolerate this taradiddle or not....

Russian sovereign debt: The market becomes local
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2022

International holders didn’t receive interest payments on two issues of Sovereign Eurobonds by the expiration of the grace period despite all the efforts of the Finance Ministry, and the event of default was finally observed. However, Russian authorities are trying to deliver payments to investor...

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