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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​CBR cut the key rate by 300 bps, and Minfin is likely to resume borrowing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 May 2022

Today, at the extraordinary BoD meeting, CBR decided to cut the key rate by 300 bps to 11%. As we wrote yesterday, this move was anticipated amid rapidly decelerating inflation and slowing consumer lending. Moreover, a further cut in June is also likely. This step will inevitably push down intere...

CBR to cut the key aggressively as the ruble looks too strong and inflation slows
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 May 2022

Rosstat reported deflation of 0.02% in seven days ending on May 20 so that the MTD inflation reached 0.13% only and turned well below all expectations. The YTD inflation reached 11.82% on the same date. The CBT reported that interest rates on short-term consumer loans (up to 1Y maturity) jumped t...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 May 2022

So far, the EU has failed to introduce the sixth package of sanctions, which was supposed to include some kind or embargo on Russian oil and oil-refined products. At the same time, the Western countries continue to discuss some other restrictions on energy imports from Russia (such as imposing sp...

​GDP was up by 3.5% y-o-y in 1Q22 – better than expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 May 2022

Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP was up by 3.5% in 1Q22, which was not too bad a result given that in March the economy was already affected by the "special military operation". Therefore, the fact that the most recent forecast by the Economics Ministry, published a couple of days ago, was l...

Russian macro: drafting the budget for 2023 and beyond
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 May 2022

As Russia continues its journey to an unknown future, while the country’s economy has to undergo a kind of counter-transformation, i.e., from an open-market-oriented version toward a more closed one, the government has started to shape the 2023-2025 rolling budget. Such planning assumes a baselin...

The current account strengthens in April causing an unpleasant appreciation of the ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 May 2022

As the EU having imposed bans on exports to Russia, appears either quite slow or reluctant to get rid of energy imports from Russia, the latter's current account surplus widened in 4M22 to an unprecedented $95.8bn. In 1Q22, the current account surplus stood at $58.2 bn, implying that in April alo...

Inflation seemingly stabilizes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 May 2022

After some delay caused by limited number of working days in early May (due to national holidays) Rosstat reported that inflation in April reached 1.56% m-o-m and 11.67% YTD. Inflation y-o-y hit 17.83%. These figures were generally expected as consumer demand has likely started to shrink, especia...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: So they say in the news
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 May 2022

For yet another month the pandemic has not been a big issue either in the media or in the minds of ordinary Russians, as both the daily incidence rate and the death toll continued to fall (the former fell to around 5K in recent days from a peak of around 200K in mid-February). It was another irre...

Russian financial markets: a new approach to pricing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 May 2022

The Russian economy will face a deep economic contraction in 2022 amid the harsh sanctions regime, and its financial markets have to adjust rapidly, trying to find an acceptable way to exist in the new reality. This process is further complicated by the rapid changes in external factors (mostly n...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 May 2022

The potential embargo on Russian oil, which is in discussion among other measures within the sixth sanctions package by the EU, pushed prices on the international market above $110 per barrel. The latter was supportive for the ruble, which at the beginning of May strengthen to around R/$66 (+21% ...

Russian macro: initial signs of economic transformation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2022

March was the first full month that the Russian economy began its transformation toward an unknown future, which is likely to be more ascetic, less reliant on imports and less open to the rest of the world – at least in the initial stage. It looks as though the impact of the military activity in ...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

April 14Bureau of National Statistics: Kazakhstan's industrial output moved up by 5.8% in annual terms in the first three months of 2022Ministry of Finance: Kazakhstan's economy may lose about KZT300 bln ($666.4 mln) in 2022 from anti-Russian sanctions as well as the situation in Ukraine in gener...

Russia is ready to cut trade with the EU even more
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022

As Russia announced that the supply of gas to Poland and Bulgaria stopped, it looks as though the Russian authorities are ready to cut foreign trade with the EU even more as the country no longer needs that much euro liquidity. The euro is seen as a second-tier currency in Russia, given that the ...

Kazakhstan Macro: the budget is in surplus in 1Q22 as revenues exceed the plan
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022

The consolidated budget of the Republic of Kazakhstan posted a surplus in 1Q22, as the country’s finance ministry reported. This budget is a sum of the state budget and the National fund net of transfer from the latter to the former (the state budget is an aggregate of the republican and local bu...

Russian macro: key rate cuts likely to continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Apr 2022

The Central Bank is due to hold its regular BoD meeting on April 29, and it is widely assumed that the key rate will be cut – the consensus points to 200 bps. Indeed, there is enough room for the CBR to cut the key rate as the ruble has impressively recovered to the levels seen before February 24...

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