Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Investment activity rebounds in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that investment in production capacity was up y-o-y by 7.8% in 3Q21 and by 7.6% in 9M21. Investment increased almost all across the economy apart from the mining sector (down by 0.2% y-o-y in 9M21). This decline occurred due to a 6.4% contraction of investment in the oil-and-gas....

Economic growth looked decent in October but accelerated inflation will erode it at year-end
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that in 10M21 and October, the aggregate output of the five basic sectors (industry, transport, trade, construction, agriculture) was up y-o-y by 6.3% and 6.5%. This measure of the country’s economic activity is usually more volatile than GDP but is calculated monthly, while the ...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: facing challenges… having created them
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Dec 2021

After a rather mild weekly lockdown in early November, Russia’s daily incidence rate declined gradually from over 40K to 32-33K on November 30 and December 1. Even though the daily death toll remains high, it started to subside as well. Russia’s numbers do not look too high compared to many Europ...

Consumer credit growth remains strong, albeit slows moderately in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2021

The Central bank reported that the stock of bank credits to households grew by 1.65% m-o-m in October and reached R25.6 trln. In September credits grew by 1.73% m-o-m versus 1.93% m-o-m in August. Out of this amount, mortgages accounted for R11.4 trln and grew m-o-m by slightly more than 2.0%. Th...

Decent rate of industrial growth in October amid high inflation and decelerating credit growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021

Industrial performance was good enough in October. Rosstat reported that industrial production was up y-o-y by 7.1% in October and 5.0% in 10M21. Seasonally and calendar adjusted by Rosstat m-o-m growth was positive (0.8%). The mining sector grew y-o-y by 10.9% and 3.7% over the same periods, whi...

Russia’s 3Q21 GDP growth is in line with expectations, while elevated inflation boosts nominal GDP numbers
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2021

Rosstat published its flash estimate of the 3Q21 y-o-y GDP growth (4.3%), which appeared in line with expectations and didn’t challenge the view that in 2021 as a whole Russia’s GDP will grow by around 4.2%. Rosstat provided no more details on the 3Q21 GDP. No breakdown of growth by sectors, no s...

Russian macro: how Minfin’s actions hamper the effectiveness of CBR policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Nov 2021

Russian federal budget revenues soared this year and exceeded the initial annual plan by 8.9% in 10M21. Oil-and-gas revenues were 21.8% higher than expected, while the rest of the revenues were 2.1% above the planned annual amount. In 10M21, the government spent 85% of budgeted expenditure, which...

Russia is back as a twin-surplus economy in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that in 10M21 federal budget revenues exceeded the formally approved annual budget plan by 8.9%. Oil-and-gas revenues exceeded the annual plan by 21.8%, while the non-oil-and-gas revenues were higher than the annual target by 2.8%. Total revenues reached R20.4 trln w...

Russian macro: mortgages to remain in demand despite higher key rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2021

Consumer credit and mortgages, which grew fast during the pandemic, remain among the pillars of Russia’s economic growth. In 2Q20 the government offered subsidies for mortgages so that households were able to borrow at a fixed rate (6.5%), implying that banks provided mortgage loans below the mar...

Inflation up to 8.13% y-o-y in October despite CBR series of rate hikes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation in October continued to accelerate – the m-o-m figure was at 1.11%, while inflation y-o-y accelerated to 8.13%. Inflation YTD reached 6.49%. Inflation w-o-w remained steady and high, showing no clear signs of deceleration (in the seven days ending on November 1, it...

​Economic growth remained strong in September and 3Q21, though the 4Q21 looks more challenging amid rising incidence rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2021

The Rosttat reported that real incomes in Russia grew y-o-y by 4.4% and 7.6% in 9M21 and 3Q21. In 3Q21 real incomes were higher than in 2Q21 by 4.5% (not seasonally adjusted). Similar numbers for real disposable incomes were 4.1%, 8.1%, and 4.6%. Both real incomes and real disposable incomes are ...

Industrial growth remains strong in September
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2021 · 1 response

Rosstat reported that industrial output grew y-o-y by 4.7%, 6.2%, and 6.8% in 9M21, 3Q21, and September alone. Seasonally and calendar-adjusted industrial output grew by 1.7% m-o-m.Mining was up by 3.0%, 9.4%, and 9.5% y-o-y over the same periods. As oil and gas extraction combined was up by 0.9%...

OFZ: The yield curve has become inverted – the first time since 2017
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2021 · 1 response

Friday’s CBR decision to hike the key rate by 75 bps (to 7.5%), accompanied by a hawkish statement from the regulator, became a negative surprise for the bond market. Despite the acceleration of inflation, which reached 7.8% as of October 20, the market was expecting a more moderate action, but t...

Pandemic/political update: economic woes dominate, the epidemiological situation deteriorates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Oct 2021

Since early September, when Russia’s daily incidence rate fluctuated around 17-18K people, the number of registered cases doubled, having jumped to 36K on October 21 and over 37K on October 22. Vaccination remains slow, despite the high daily death toll – over 1K in recent days. Note that the dea...

More key rate hikes as inflation accelerate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2021 · 1 response

According to Rosstat, in seven days to October 18, inflation w-o-w reached 0.26%, having accelerated from 0.22% seen in the preceding seven days. Inflation MTD reached 0.63% in eighteen days of October (5.98% YTD). Consumer price inflation beat all earlier expectations and is likely to be at leas...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.