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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

OFZ: Expecting foreign demand in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Dec 2020

Today the Finance Ministry conducted the last OFZ primary auction in 2020. Significant FX market volatility and the quickly setting holiday mood influenced the government’s decision to offer the symbolic R10.7 bln of inflation-linker, which was more than 3 times oversubscribed. As a result the ag...

Russia's economic situation in November remains stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2020

Rosstat reported that trends in the key sectors, such as retail sales, construction, transport, industry, agriculture remained relatively unchanged in November. GKEM Analytica mentioned earlier that industrial output was catching up with pre-pandemic levels, and in 11M20, it was down by a mere 3....

​Russian industry: decent performance in manufacturing, mining is still suppressed by the OPEC+ deal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial output was down by 2.6% and 3.0% y-o-y in November and in 11M20, which looks slightly better than could be expected earlier. An upward revision of October statistics is one of the reasons. Rosstat revised up October statistics in manufacturing, but at the same tim...

Steady fiscal performance in November
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

The Russian federal budget posted a deficit of R0.815trln in November and R2.512 in 11M20. In November, federal budget spending increased to R2.298 trln (versus R1.969 trln in October) and reached nearly R19.040 trln in 11M20. Note that the amended 2020 federal budget assumes expenditures at 22.5...

The impact of the pandemic on Russia’s demographic – additional information from Rosstat
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

In recent days Russia’s daily infection cases fluctuated around 28K, while the death toll, according to Rospotrebnadzor, kept fluctuating around an upward trend and once exceeded 600. Rospotrebnadzor is an agency, that apart from various other duties is in charge of collecting real-time statistic...

3Q20 y-o-y GDP upgraded
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2020

Rosstat upgraded its estimate of the 3Q20 y-o-y GDP growth, which of course remained negative, but less so (-3.4% versus -3.6% released earlier as a flash estimate). This upgrade was generally in line with GKEM Analytica’s thinking and previous upward revisions Rosstat. As a result, the 9M20 GDP ...

Inflation remains elevated
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2020

Inflation during the first week of October was at 0.2% w-o-w. Inflation remains elevated starting from November and will stay high in the weeks ahead. It looks as though budgetary spending, which remained moderate in 10M20 (the government spent around 86% of the initial, pre-pandemic, budget duri...

Russia’s external balance remains solid in 11M20
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2020

According to a CBR’s flash estimate, the current account surplus reached $29.1 bn in 11M20, while the trade surplus was at $80.6 bn. The latter figure is well in line with CBR’s previous releases – trade surplus reached $64.8 bn in 9M20 and was estimated at $73.0 bn in 10M20, i.e., kept widening....

Russia’s pandemic-political update: home alone
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2020

Russia’s epidemiological situation continued to evolve In November in line with previous trends, such as the continuously growing number of new cases per day. What has changed, however, was the fact that the number of people discharged due to recovery grew steadily as well, so that the growth rat...

Aggregate output in 9M20 contracts moderately, inflation accelerates in November but the peak is near
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2020

Rosstat reported that weekly inflation during the period ending on November 30 slowed and was at 0.1% (in previous weeks of November it remained at 0.2% w-o-w). It means that monthly inflation was around 0.7% that could have brought annual inflation to 4.4-4.5%. Note that weekly inflation numbers...

Banking sector: Deposit outflow may be a potential problem
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2020

Interest rates on ruble retail deposits started to climb in November. The maximum rate among the top 10 banks exceeded 4.5% for first time since early August. This fact may indicate certain structural problems in the sector. The volume of retail deposits is declining, reflecting the relocation of...

Russia’s 2021 Outlook: Economy to bounce back amid low base effect
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 23 Nov 2020

In 2020 Russian GDP is expected to contract less, namely by 3.3-3.4%, than was considered previously – not least due to upward revisions of some of the previously published statistical data. In 2021 the economy can grow about 3.2% - assuming other factors being equal, namely no major deterioratio...

​October statistics look better than expected – despite some restrictions returned
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2020

Rosstat reported that in October, the retail sales continued to catch up, and after an increase by 2.1% m-o-m, they were down by a mere 3.8% y-o-y that month and by 4.6% y-o-y in 10m20 (here and below m-o-m rates are not seasonally adjusted). Construction remained nearly flat y-o-y both in Octobe...

Inflation is up in the aftermath of the weakening of the ruble amid year-end budgetary spending spree
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2020

Rosstat reported that during the seven days ending on November 16, the w-o-w inflation remained at 0.2% and was the same as from November 3 to 9. Inflationary pressure increased in November and it cannot be ruled out that monthly inflation could reach 0.7-0.8% implying that inflation y-o-y could ...

Industrial growth - no surprises in October, while the 3Q20 GDP was above expectations
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial output was down by 5.9% and 3.1% y-o-y in October and 10m20, while September statistics were was revised up – both in the case of mining and manufacturing. Overall, industrial statistics looked in October somewhat worse than in September. At the same time, accordi...

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