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Russian macro: 2020 outlook unchanged amid mixed statistics in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 28 May 2020

​Preliminary statistics for April released by Rosstat indicate that retail sales were sharply lower, both m-o-m and y-o-y, by 28.5% (not seasonally adjusted) and by 23.3%, respectively. The 4M20 tally fell by 2.8% y-o-y. A very deep contraction was generally expected, but the published figures s...

Russia in April: economic performance is uneven across sectors but doesn’t surprise
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 May 2020 · 1 response

Rosstat released preliminary statistics for April and reported that retail was strongly down m-o-m and y-o-y - by 28.5% (not seasonally adjusted) and by 23.3% respectively. A very deep contraction was generally expected, but the published figures will help to come up with a more reliable macroeco...

Russia’s pandemic update
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 May 2020

As several influential media sources, such as last week the FT, Bloomberg, The Economist, accused Russia of significantly under-reporting the country’s death toll and suggested that the actual number of the virus-related lethal cases should have been higher by around 70%, the Russian authorities ...

Industry contracts in April amid the lockdown, but with now surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

According to Rosstat Industrial output contracted in April by 6.6% y-o-y and 9.2% m-o-m, which can be treated as a relatively good outcome compared to many other countries. In March, for instance, the industry in the EU and Euro area posted double-digit dive both in y-o-y and m-o-m. Note that in ...

OFZ: Going below 6%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 May 2020

Last Friday the yield of the longest OFZ dropped below 6% for the first time ever. Strong demand from both domestic and international investors not only pushed the curve down but also allowed the Finance Ministry to set a new single day placement record this Wednesday — R169 bln. Market participa...

Russian macro: Budget execution and balance of payments suggest the Russian economy is adjusting
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 May 2020 · 1 response

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget revenue flow was strong last month as non-oil-and-gas revenues soared by over 76% y-o-y and reached R1.836 trln. As a result, the budget posted a small surplus in April even though expenditures exceeded R2.26 trln, which is very high, given th...

The Russian budget and the current account remained in surplus in April and in 4M20
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 May 2020

The CBR and the Finance Ministry reported that Russia’s key balances, such that of the federal budget and the current account were in surplus in April. The former institution reported that the current account surplus reached $23.5 bln in 4M20 implying a surplus of around $1.8 bln in April alone. ...

CBR policy: more rate cuts needed to offset quantitative tightening
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2020

There is no doubt that the impact of the lockdown on the Russian economy in April was strong, and the decision to gradually lift the imposed restrictions is quite understandable – even despite the rather high numbers of infections in Russia. In this regard it is worth reiterating that despite the...

CBR launches regular LT REPO facility
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 May 2020

Today CBR chairperson, Ms. Nabiullina, announced that the regulator will start providing funding for 1 month and 1 year to local commercial banks via regular REPO facility. Auctions will take place once a month. First auction providing one-month facility is due to be launched at the end of May, a...

Russia and COVID-19: confusing words – perplexing actions
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2020

Given that in the second half of April the number of new daily COVID-19 cases in Russia fluctuated around 5K people, many officials and experts hoped that this number could come down going forward, thus bringing some hope that the lockdown measures could be gradually eased in mid-May. However, in...

​Russia in Brief: Pandemic affected the economy in 1Q20, but not yet much
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2020

Rosstat reported that retail sales were strongly up in March (by 5.6% y-o-y) which lifted the 1Q20 y-o-y growth to 4.3%. Growth accelerated both in the food and non-food segments which in 1Q20 were up by 3.6% and 5.0% y-o-y. Clearly such an acceleration was largely driven by preemptive purchases ...

Russia’s macro policy: A peculiar mix of lower rates and FX interventions
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020

As the markets expected, the CBR cut its key policy rate by 50 bps on April 24, hinted at more rate cuts of around 100 bps, and announced that monetary policy is becoming more accommodative. This is undoubtedly a strong positive message for the OFZ market, which had rallied a lot in anticipation ...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Russia's response to the crisis: a mix of easing and tightening
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Apr 2020

In the webinar, Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin provided insight into Russia's ability to weather the dual impact of the coronavirus lockdown and the oil crisis on its economy and external accounts

Russia: Pandemic update
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020

Economy taking a hitRosstat reported that industrial output was up by a mere 0.3% y-o-y in March, which brought the 1Q20 y-o-y growth figure to just 1.5%. Seasonally adjusted March figure was 1.3% down m-o-m. Mining y-o-y was flat in 1Q20 and down by 1.3% in March, while manufacturing growth in M...

​Russia’s pandemic update: CBR hints rate may be cut next week
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2020

Today, the CBR Chairperson Mrs. Nabiulina made several statements during her press-conference, which seem to be supportive for the ruble bond market. In particular, she mentioned that the base case scenario for the next Board of Directors meeting would be a potential key rate cut, and the size of...

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