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The Russian budget is still in surplus in 11M22 as massive spending is due in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budgetary spending was moderate in November (R2.2 trillion) and was on par with volumes seen in the previous months. In 11M22, the government spent R24.2 trillion, while the amended 2022 budget assumed expenditures of around R29.0 trillion. Even thou...

Russian macro: adapting to regular shocks – Russia’s new reality
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Dec 2022

The Russian economy once again proved that it is quite resilient to shocks as the GDP contraction this year appears less significant than the broad consensus expected right after the start of the special military operation. The country’s authorities recently mentioned that GDP could contract by 2...

Current account historically strong in 9M22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2022

The Central Bank reported the current account continued to grow in 3Q22, albeit this surplus in 3Q22 was not as wide as in 2Q22 and 1Q22 – just $51.2bn versus ($76.7bn and $69.8bn accordingly). In 9M22, the current account surplus reached $225.7bn and is likely to widen to $270bn and possibly eve...

Inflation jumps in the first days of December due to the rise of regulated tariffs
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on December 5, inflation w-o-w jumped to 0.58%, an unprecedented level after months of deflation in the summer and slow inflation in October. It is not yet clear what the final inflation print in November will be (to be published on December 9). Though g...

Russia political/pandemic update: life as an everlasting special operation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Dec 2022

Even though the COVID-19 pandemic no longer remains an issue in Russia, it still affects the country’s matters, albeit sometimes in a rather peculiar way, such as what happened recently in China and with the oil price. As the zero tolerance COVID policy in China and expectations of its weaker eco...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2022

The FX market remains more or less stable in anticipation of an embargo on Russian oil and the price cap. It is worth mentioning that trading activity in traditional currencies is declining in Russia as these assets are considered toxic by a growing number of local market participants. The full-s...

No surprises in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2022

Rosstat reported that in October, the output of the five basic sectors was down by 3.2% y-o-y in October, which is a bit better than in September (down by 3.5% y-o-y). In 10M22, this output was down by a mere 1.1%, heading toward around a 2.0% contraction in 2022. Generally, it looks as though Ru...

OFZ: a new approach to placement tactics
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

In mid-October, the Russian Ministry of Finance resumed primary OFZ auctions despite challenging market conditions. Moreover, by the beginning of November, it became clear that the government had set a priority to borrow as much as possible. As a result, the Ministry raised R1.3 trln on the marke...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

Strong demand for cash from the household sector combined with increased issuance activity of the Finance Ministry fueled demand for refinancing in CBR. The overall amount of REPO loans exceeded R1.7 trln. Despite that, RUONIA moved well above the key rate level in the first half of the month. Gi...

GDP down 4.0% y-o-y in 3Q22, weekly inflation remains subdued
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

Rosstat reported that the country's GDP was down by 4.0% in 3Q22 according to its flash estimate. No other details have been published. If so, then it means that seasonally adjusted Q-o-Q GDP didn't increase in 3Q22. It also means that in 9M22, GDP could be down by 1.7% y-o-y implying that in 202...

The federal budget still in surplus in 10M22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2022

The Ministry of Finance preliminary reports that the federal budget was in surplus in 10M22 as revenues exceeded R22.1 trln while expenditures were at R22.0 trln. As the ministry stopped publishing detailed fiscal accounts, including adjustments it makes regularly to initial estimates of the budg...

Russia’s current account surplus widens
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2022

The CBR reported that in 10M22, the current account surplus reached $215.4 bn and increased by $17.7 bn in October as in 9M22, it was at $197.7 bn. The monthly current account surplus in October was close to its average monthly level in 3Q22 (quarterly $51.2 bn) albeit was lower than average mont...

Inflationary pressure remains low so far
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation in October was 0.18% m-o-m which brought inflation YTD and y-o-y to 10.66% and 12.63%. The final inflation in October calculated on a broad consumption basket appeared a bit lower than whet Rosstat reported a few days earlier having provided an estimated based on a...

Russia political/pandemic update: history repeats itself, once again
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Apart from the many unpleasant social, economic, and political effects of the coronavirus pandemic, a few developments gradually affected economic behavior in a rather creative fashion. One of them was that many employers and employees realized that one could do almost the same job without going ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2022

Liquidity in the domestic market remains muted as a significant amount of cash was withdrawn from the banking system during partial mobilization. Given that interest rates on the retail deposits are relatively low, the return of these funds to the system may take much more time than was in March-...

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