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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The government reveals its macroeconomic projections and medium-term budget figures
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Aug 2025

The Kazakh government has announced the approval of the medium-term macroeconomic forecast and key budget figures. GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2026, with average annual growth from 2026-2028 projected at 5.3%, indicating a slight slowdown after 2026. These figures seem reasonable given the...

Inflation likely to stay elevated in August prompting NBK to hold the base rate
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Aug 2025

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the weekly aggregate price index on socially essential goods (mainly basic foodstuffs) remained flat in the seven days ending on August 18. The MTD index remained at 0.1% on that day. It is not unusual to see some deflationary weeks during the harve...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Aug 2025

Aug 7 Prime Minister: Kazakhstan plans to raise $24.2 bln in the next 5 years for the repair of utility networks. Aug 8 Government: Construction of the first nuclear power plant has started in Kazakhstan. Aug 11 NBK: Kazakhstan's gross international reserves increased by 0.8% in July to $113.041 ...

Budgetary amendments hint inflation to remain elevated in 2H25
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Aug 2025

As the Kazakh economy grows fast, budget revenues not related to the oil price (and the exchange rate) grew steadily in July, especially on the local level. In 7M25 local budgets accumulated 57.4% of the upwardly amended yearly revenues. The government amended expected local budget revenues by KZ...

Economic growth accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Aug 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1H25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.2% y-o-y and in July economic growth accelerated as the Bureau also reported that in 7M25, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for economic activity that covers over 60% of total production of goods and servi...

Kazakhstan macro: the tenge needs to weaken further
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 12 Aug 2025

In its most recent monthly statement on the FX market (published on August 1) the National Bank of Kazakhstan mentioned that trading activity increased last month and the tenge weakened by 4%. Total trade volume reached $5.7 bln, of which $0.7 bln was accounted for by FX sales from the National F...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025

Jul 24 KMG: Kazakhstan increased oil refining by 8.4% y-o-y in 1H25. Government: Turkish investors to build grain processing and fertilizer production plants in Kazakhstan for $610 mln. Jul 28 Asian Development Bank: The bank improved Kazakhstan's 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.1%, and t...

Inflation likely remains elevated for the rest of the year, prompting no rate cuts from NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Aug 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation decelerated m-o-m from 0.8% in June to 0.7% in July. However, the y-o-y price index remained unchanged at 11.8%. Services prices grew y-o-y by 14.9% (down from 16.1% in June), food prices were up by 11.2% (up from 10.6% in June), and the n...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Jul 9 National Railway Company: Kazakhstan and China have signed an agreement on comprehensive strategic cooperation, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan plans to maintain oil production at the current level for the rest of the...

Kazakhstan macro: economy accelerates amid delayed budget spending
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Last week, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that economic growth continued to accelerate on a year-over-year basis as the short-term indicator (a monthly print of economic activity) grew by 9.0% in 1H25. In 5M25, it was up by 8.6% y-o-y, and in January alone, it grew by 4.5% only. This ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jul 2025

Jun 25 Parliament: The Mazhilis (lower house) of the Parliament has finally approved the new Tax Code as amended by the Senate. The new Code introduces a progressive personal income tax scale: a salary of up to a specially introduced “monthly indicator” equal to 8500 per year (currently about KZT...

The National Fund decreases amid lack of revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Jul 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported that assets of the National Fund shrank from KZT36.7 trln ($66.2 bln) as of January 1, 2025, to KZT32.8 trln ($63.4 bln) as of July 1. Tax revenues, i.e., the bulk of incoming payments, amounted to KZT1.8 trln in 1H25, i.e., 37.0% of the annual target (nearly KZT4...

Inflation y-o-y rises amid a slow deceleration m-o-m prompting no decisive action from the NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025

Inflationary pressure remains high as the Bureau of National Statistics reported inflation moved from 11.3% in May to 11.8% in June. However, it moderately decelerated last month to 0.8% m-o-m (versus 0.9% m-o-m in May and even higher numbers earlier this year). A year ago, inflation m-o-m was 0....

Kazakhstan macro: inflation to decelerate slowly as economy remains overheated
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Jun 2025

Despite various challenges, the Kazakh economy has been performing well in recent years, and 2025 is expected to be another good year as economic growth is reportedly accelerating. Growth remains uneven, but strengthening of the services sector is an important trait of the Kazakh economy. The cou...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Jun 2025

Jun 11 President: Kazakhstan is ready to supply Slovakia with oil, gas, and uranium. Jun 13 Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The US has expressed its willingness to cooperate with Kazakhstan in the field of critically important minerals. Jun 14 Atomic Energy Agency: Rosatom will lead the consortium f...

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