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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2024

Apr 4 Sinopec: The Chinese company Sinopec has officially become a co-founder of Silleno LLP, which is involved in the construction of a polyethylene plant in Kazakhstan. Apr 6 President: Mr. Tokayev described the current floods as the biggest disaster in the past 80 years, both in terms of scale...

Economy grows steadily in March, albeit with some moderation
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the short-term indicator (a sort of a monthly proxy for GDP) grew y-o-y by 4.7% and 4.1% in 1Q24 and March. General trends remained the same, i.e., economic growth remained uneven by sectors. Industrial output increased over the same time frames by ...

Kazakhstan macro: a new economic agenda for a new government
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 10 Apr 2024

In early February, Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev accepted the resignation of the government headed by Mr. Smailov, who had been in charge of the cabinet of ministers since January 2022. The position was handed over to Mr. Bektenov, who had served as the head of the presidential administration si...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Apr 2024

Mar 20 National Financial Regulator: The watchdog will conduct an asset quality review of the 11 biggest banks in Kazakhstan this year. Mar 21 Government: Kazakhstan and Qatar signed an agreement for long-term strategic cooperation to develop projects in priority sectors (the estimated amount is ...

Kazakhstan: no change in macro trends in 2M24; puzzles remain
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Mar 2024

Recently, the Bureau of National Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank of Kazakhstan published a new set of monthly macroeconomic statistics, and the major takeaway is that the country’s economic trends haven't changed much. Last week, we published a report that presented a b...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Mar 2024

Mar 7 Government: Kazakhstan will strengthen monitoring of international transactions for transfer pricing. President: Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia have signed an agreement on a joint project to construct a 1 GW wind power farm. National pipeline company: The consolidated net profit of KazTransOil...

Industrial growth numbers look good, supported by an additional working day in February
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in February, the country’s industrial growth numbers looked strong – both in the case of mining and manufacturing segments. It occurred, not least, due to a leap year and an additional working day in February. The mining segment grew by 3.6% y-o-y i...

Kazakhstan macro: The art of financing budgetary expenditures
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 14 Mar 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan started publishing economic data for February, and it looks as though economic growth remains relatively stable, albeit uneven across sectors and with some signs of deceleration. For instance, the Bureau reported that retail sales grew by 4.0% y-o-y...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

Feb 22 Bureau of National Statistics: Agricultural production in Kazakhstan increased by 0.4% y-o-y in January Bureau of National Statistics: In January, investments in fixed capital in Kazakhstan grew by 0.6% y-o-y Ministry of Industry and Construction: In 2023, coal production in Kazakhstan dec...

Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth beat expectations last year but is likely to decelerate in 2024
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Feb 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan published its preliminary GDP numbers on the production side for 2023. The end-use statistics will be published at a later date. It could well be the case that at some point the Bureau may somehow modify the quarterly GDP data as the annual figure i...

The National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts the base rate by 50 bps
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Feb 2024

The NBK cut the base rate to 14.75%, i.e., by 50 bps, quoting falling inflation expectations as a key factor that triggered this decision. The regulator also referred to falling global food prices. Note that in January, inflation fell to 9.5% y-o-y while m-o-m inflation remained elevated (0.8% m-...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Feb 2024

Feb 9 NBK: As of February 1, Kazakhstan's gross international reserves (including gold) grew to $96.1 bln (+0.1% m-o-m). National pipeline: In January, KazTransOil exported 287K tons of oil (+36% y-o-y) from the port of Aktau. S&P: In January, Kazakhstan exceeded the OPEC+ quota by 92K bpd. Prime...

Economic growth moderates in January
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Feb 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an overall economic activity) grew by 4.3% y-o-y, i.e., down from about 5.0% in the previous months. Even though this indicator was affected by a high base effect (faster growth in January 2023), there a...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Jan 25 Oil transit: Belarus has raised tariffs for oil transit from Kazakhstan to Europe by 38%, from Russia - by 10.2% National Railways: Freight transportation by rail between Kazakhstan and China increased by 22% in 2023 to 28 mln tons Government: Kazakhstan plans to double production of agric...

The current account deficit widened in 4Q23 as the tenge got excessively strong
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

The National Bank of Kazakhstan published its first estimate of the 2023 balance of payments, and it became clear that in 4Q23, the current account deficit widened to $3.3 bn from $1.6 bn in 3Q23. In 2Q23, the deficit was even wider ($3.4 bn). However, in 1Q23, it was again moderate ($1.6 bn). Ap...

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