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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator, which measures combined economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, IT/communications, and trade, grew by 4.3% y-o-y in 5M26, slightly higher than the 4.2% growth in the first four months. In M...

Kazakhstan macro: high oil prices and the tax reform support budget revenues in 5M26

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Jun 2026

The Ministry of Finance announced that in 5M26, total revenues of the republican budget reached nearly KZT9.3 trln, or 40.5% of the annual plan. While this looks solid overall, tax revenues of KZT7.3 trln fell slightly short in our view, hitting 38.3% of the yearly target. The Ministry of Finance...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jun 2026

May 21 Ministry of Justice: Naftogaz of Ukraine is seeking to validate in commercial arbitration in Kazakhstan its $1.44 bln claim against Gazprom for unpaid gas transit fees after the service was halted in 2022. Earlier, Naftogaz had won a similar arbitration against Gazprom in the Netherlands. ...

Inflation gradually slows but remains elevated

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 01 Jun 2026

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, in May, annual inflation eased to 10.4% from 10.6% in April, while monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% from 0.8%. Despite this moderation, inflation remains high, with the NBK keeping the base rate steady at 18.0%. Even the stronger tenge, which apprec...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 May 2026

May 8 National Railways: Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (National Railways) plans to place three issues of CNY-denominated bonds totaling CNY 1.79 bln. National gas company: QazaqGaz placed 10Y Eurobonds worth $700 mln at 5.625%. May 11 Turkey: The Turkish President, Mr. Erdogan, will visit Kazakhstan on...

GDP growth moderated in 1Q26 but followed by stronger economic performance in April

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 May 2026

The Bureau of Economic Statistics reported that GDP grew by 3.0% y-o-y in 1Q26 with the mining sector down by 11.4% y-o-y and manufacturing delivering 8.5% y-o-y growth. Industry in total contracted by 0.1% y-o-y. Trade (wholesale and retail combined) grew by 4.8% y-o-y. Construction was up by 14...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth moderates in the aftermath of last year’s overheating

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 14 May 2026

Recent economic statistics show that Kazakhstan’s economy resumed growing after the sharp drop in January caused by the oil export disruption due to the damage at the CPC sea oil terminal. However, January’s shock will still have some impact on overall growth in 2026, which will be slower than la...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 May 2026

Apr 23 Prime Minister: Kazakhstan plans to build 5K km of railways in 4 years. Asian Development Bank: By 2030, the bank plans to allocate $5.5 bln to Kazakhstan for green energy and energy infrastructure projects. KMG: Kazakhstan views the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route as a crucial...

The base rate remains unchanged, the tenge strengthens more

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 28 Apr 2026

On April 24, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged at 18% despite inflation decelerating in March. It fell y-o-y to 11.0% and m-o-m to 0.6% (from 11.7% and 1.7% in February). Commenting on the decision, the NBK Chairman praised the consistency of monetary policy ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Apr 2026

Apr 4 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan continues to export oil via the CPC system in a regular mode. Apr 9 Parliament: The Senate (upper house) has ratified the agreement with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan on a possibility of mutual supply of "green" energy. Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital...

Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth to moderate this year

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Apr 2026

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, economic trends looked better in March as the economy continued to recover from the January shock caused by disruptions in oil exports (and accordingly, extraction) due to the damaged CPC oil pipeline terminal. Still, in 1Q26 as a whole, economic g...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Apr 2026

Mar 26 Government: Kazakhstan excluded Shell’s and Eni's participation in the Karachaganak gas processing plant project. Banking system: Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank intends to establish a subsidiary bank in Kazakhstan. KMG: The company’s net profit decreased by 2% in 2025. KMG: Joint project with R...

Kazakhstan macro: budget revenues to outperform this year, prompting a possible rise in expenditure

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 31 Mar 2026

We mentioned previously that the republican and local budgets performed well in 2M26, with the former posting a small deficit of about KZT0.1 trln in 2M26, while the full-year deficit was targeted at KZT4.6 trln. This deficit appeared low, not least because expenditures lagged given that about KZ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Mar 2026

Mar 12 Energy Ministry: The Minister instructed to strengthen the protection of strategic facilities in the oil and gas sector KMG: Mr Khasenov, CEO of KMG, called on Tengizchevroil company to bring Tengiz oil field to full capacity as soon as possible Mar 13 Government: Kazakhstan intends to inc...

Tax revenues soar in 2M26 amid VAT reform

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026

In 2M26, the republican budget posted a small deficit of about KZT0.9 trln while the full year deficit was targeted at KZT4.6 trln. The 2M26 deficit appeared small, not least because expenditures lagged as about KZT0.9 trln was left unallocated. Hence, in 2M26, expenditures accounted for 14.3% of...