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Sailing into the unknown
CHILE · Report · 25 May 2023

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) for March confirms the ongoing decline in consumption, and stagnation in economic activity. National accounts figures for Q1 2023 highlight the weakness of consumption in a context of high inflation, elevated interest rates and weak consumer confide...

Congress approves a new mining royalty
CHILE · In Brief · 17 May 2023

After working its way through the legislative maze for four years, Chile’s mining royalty law was approved today in Congress. The bill, which will become law once the president signs it, seeks to tax large-scale mining companies according to a differentiated schedule. The new rules will tax compa...

Chile's Constitutional Council Elections
CHILE · In Brief · 08 May 2023 · 1 response

Chileans voted yesterday for the fifty members of the Constitutional Council which will spend the coming months designing the constitutional proposal that will be presented to voters in a referendum on 17 December. This is the second attempt at approving a new constitution after Chileans rejected...

Boric announces plans for Chile's lithium
CHILE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2023 · 2 responses

In a nationally televised address to the nation on Thursday evening, President Gabriel Boric announced his much-awaited plan for the future exploitation of Chile’s vast reserves of lithium. The Boric plan has five main elements: The creation of a national lithium company, with the goal of having ...

Never cared for what they say
CHILE · Report · 19 Apr 2023

In its March Monetary Policy Report, the Central Bank of Chile revised up its base scenario for 2023 GDP and consumption growth. Consumption growth projections still seem low to us. Economic activity remained stagnant in February. The service IMACEC, retail sales and imports show that consumption...

A very soft landing, with plenty of turbulence
CHILE · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Chilean economic activity has been moving away from the protracted decline observed in the second half of 2022. The Monthly Economic Activity Index surprised positively in January. The breakdown by sectors showed widespread improvement. Nevertheless, services continued to lead the way. The real q...

Cabinet shuffle in Chile
CHILE · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023 · 1 response

If a week is a long time in politics, this one was endless, especially for president Gabriel Boric. On Wednesday the government’s tax reform was voted down in the House of Deputies. Although the government was quick to blame the opposition – and the opposition indeed opposed the reform as it was ...

Chile signs on to TPP11
CHILE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2023

In the 1990s and 2000s, signing free trade agreements became almost routine for Chile. But when Chile’s adhesion to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP, or TPP11) finally became official this week, it was a big deal. One of the slogans of Chile’s 2019 ...

Stagflation ain’t over yet
CHILE · Report · 13 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMACEC) showed relatively favorable results in December. But given the adverse outlook for 2023, negative 12-month variations will continue in coming months. At the sectorial level, it is worth differentiating between cases where there were additional advances...

Life is not easy for any of us
CHILE · Report · 29 Dec 2022

Chilean economic activity as measured by the IMACEC grew in October, due to a temporary increase in mining and a recovery in commerce. But the 12-month variation of the IMACEC fell into negative territory. Retail sales also increased, due to a successful Cyber Day. But the outlook for consumption...

Chile's Constitutional Agreement: More Details and Responses
CHILE · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022

An update to our earlier report on the agreement reached on Chile’s new constitutional process. As we indicated last week, the process will begin with the selection by Congress of a Committee of Experts, to be followed by an election for a new constituent assembly, to be called a Constitutional C...

Chile's Constitutional Process 2.0
CHILE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2022

After three months of negotiation, the parties in Congress have agreed on the basic outline of a new process to draft – once again – a constitutional proposal. The details still need to be hammered out, especially among senators, but the general agreement consists of a Committee of Experts who wi...

The economy heads down while politicians head nowhere
CHILE · Report · 29 Nov 2022

National accounts for Q3 2022 corroborate the weakening trend in economic activity. While in H1 2022 economic activity was stagnant, in Q3 seasonally-adjusted GDP fell, to its lowest level since Q2 2021. Investment reverted the decline of Q1 2022, returning to Q4 2021 levels. By contrast, househo...

Boric's pension reform proposal
CHILE · In Brief · 03 Nov 2022 · 3 responses

In a nationally televised speech President Gabriel Boric announced his much-awaited plan for reforming Chile's pension system. The proposal consists of three elements: a 6% increase in contributions, financed by employers; a rise in the so-called Universal Guaranteed Pension to CLP250.000 (about ...

Reached the summit
CHILE · Report · 25 Oct 2022

The monthly variation of the seasonally-adjusted August IMACEC came in at 0.6%, the first positive figure in five months, and above that of the most optimistic analyst in the Bloomberg survey. But it turns out that the gains were due to a positive one-off effect in services. Various indicators, s...

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