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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fundamentals will Cushion Against Housing Collapse
CHINA · Report · 22 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Fixed asset investment increased just 15.7% y/y in real terms in July, its slowest rise this year. Industrial output also dipped, rising 9% y/y, slightly less than in June. We expect the government to respond by increasing investment, given its healthy budgetary situation. We...

Growth Can Hit Official Targets
CHINA · Forecast · 03 Aug 2014

Executive Summary We can see the possibility of a growth rebound, after the government raised investment, and cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks, at the end of June. Though the real economy hasn’t yet seen any impact, both public spending and the money supply immediately rose. Econ...

Bringing State Investment Back to Normal
CHINA · Report · 28 Jul 2014

Executive Summary In June the government increased investment, and lowered the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Instantly, fiscal spending and the money supply rose. Though the real economy has not been affected (when taking the lagged effect into account), a future rebound is certainly po...

Bonds Policy will Ease Debt Risk
CHINA · Report · 20 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Fixed asset investment growth continues to decline, rising 17% in real terms in May, while industrial output growth dipped 1 p.p. y/y from 2013, to 8.8%. Yet the general trend is relatively stable this year. The low new project investment growth rate of 12.5% sheds light on t...

Yuan Won’t Be Down for Long
CHINA · Report · 19 May 2014

Executive Summary China’s main economic indicators in April either held to their lows or declined further. Industrial output rose 8.7% y/y, turning in the same anemic performance as in Q1. Fixed asset investment rose16.8% y/y in real terms, down 0.8 pps. We expect general slowdown to persist i...

Less Pessimistic than Others
CHINA · Forecast · 29 Apr 2014

Executive Summary People’s Bank of China Governor Xiaochuan Zhou announced in March that deposit interest rates would likely be “liberalized” in a year or two. Four days later, the Bank announced on its website that the daily trading band for the RMB would broaden to 2% from 1%, starting on Ma...

Financial Reform Seen as Growth Source
CHINA · Report · 24 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Prime Minister Keqiang Li has announced a series of small-scale stimuli to address the economic slowdown, such as cutting the enterprise tax, and stimulating private lending. The new direction is in sharp contrast to the 4 trillion yuan stimulus undertaken at the end of 2008,...

Slowdown Against Government Target
CHINA · Report · 24 Mar 2014

Executive Summary People’s Bank of China Governor Xiaochuan Zhou announced in a March 11th press conference that deposit interest rates would likely be “liberalized” in one or two years. Four days later, the Bank announced on its website that the daily trading band for the RMB would broaden to...

Housing Market: Bumpy Ride
CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Exports and imports both grew faster, up 10.6% and 10% y/y respectively in January. Almost all increases came from commodity trade. We expect the relatively high growth rate in trade to persist, and even to speed up -- especially after May. CPI rose 2.5% y/y in January, fl...

Full Steam Ahead
CHINA · Forecast · 07 Feb 2014

Executive Summary We project growth of 7.5% to 8% in 2014, as long as the domestic and foreign environments are stable. GDP grew 7.7% in 2013, a steady rise from previous years. Quarterly growth was relatively stable, with the slowest rate at 7.5% in Q2, and the fastest at 7.8% in Q3. Strong d...

Growth Revival? Don’t Hold Your Breath
CHINA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Though GDP rose 0.2 pp in Q3, to 7.8 y/y, the pick-up was mainly due to certain temporal factors. Q4 growth is likely to retreat to 7.7% in Q4, and next year. Investment expansion has been the main growth driver, and is increasing faster than last year. Infrastructure and urban ...

Marching Steadily Ahead
CHINA · Report · 13 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Though news that the economy grew 7.7% this year through Q3 was enthusiastically welcomed by China’s policy community, many are concerned about what Q4 will bring. The most powerful contributor to Q3 growth was the accelerated rise in industrial output, up 9.6% for the fir...

Weather and Economy Heat Up
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2013

Executive Summary China was hit by heat waves in July and August – with the weather in August even hotter, in many regions, than in July. Electricity generation rose 13.4% y/y over the month, its fastest climb in years. The economy seems to be heating up too. Industrial output growth also r...

Heat Wave Warms the Economy
CHINA · Report · 26 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The vast lands of central and southern China have been hit by heat waves this summer, with recorded temperatures at their highest since 1951. As an unexpected consequence, the economy warmed up, too. Trade rallied significantly. Commodity exports rose 5.1% y/y in July, aft...

Downside Risks Loom Large
CHINA · Forecast · 01 Aug 2013

Executive Summary Chinese leaders saw this slowdown coming. Shortly before Q2 growth data were released – revealing growth at 7.5% y/y -- Premier Li Keqiang vowed to safeguard “bottom lines.” Yet we may see further slowing in Q3. Some pundits suggest the bottom line might be the 7% target note...

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