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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Carrasquilla to lead Duque’s transition team
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Alberto Carrasquilla, former Minister of Finance under president Uribe and the most mentioned name for taking that same post again during the next administration, has been designated general leader of the two-month transition, until August 7th, by president-elect Iván Duque.On the government’s si...

Orange is the new black
COLOMBIA · Report · 11 Jun 2018

​The polls for the presidential runoff race show Ivan Duque ahead of Gustavo Petro, with a clear advantage in the so-called “coffee-growing zone” and center-eastern provinces. These are relatively affluent zones, which with Bogotá, Cali, Cartagena and Barranquilla, compose Colombia’s core of weal...

Economics & Political Outlook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

A new fiscal balance path and questions of growth dominate as the country faces a run-off in the presidential election.

An additional push that might not be enough
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Jun 2018

The External Committee (EC) held its regular meeting on April 16th, where it established a new path for reducing the deficit of the National Central Government (NGC). The changes of the path that have been taking place since 2014, can be read in one of two ways. One, the fact that the fence of th...

What happened on May 27?
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 May 2018

The most amazing thing about this presidential election was that results were crystal clear one hour after voting time was up. The second one was a clear differentiation between winners and losers, that we show in Table 1.​ Turnout at 53% was impressive by Colombian standards (see Figure 1), s...

Macroeconomic outook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 25 May 2018

Questions of fiscal stability and growth are key as the country heads into a presidential election.

Ideology and somnolence
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 May 2018

Our forecast for the Sunday, May 27, first-round presidential election is that the most likely pair to advance to the second round is Duque-Petro, to which we assign a probability of 55%. The second most likely is Duque-Vargas (35% probability), and the third is Duque-Fajardo (10% probability). ...

Irony and contradiction in current politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 May 2018

Less than 30 days before the first round of the presidential election, some apparent contradictions could cloud our judgement of current Colombian politics. First, Vargas-Lleras seems to be destined to attracting less than 10% of likely voters, in spite of having close to 40% of professional poli...

It ain’t over until it’s over
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Germán Vargas-Lleras is the candidate chosen by president Santos to succeed him. This is the conclusion of the recent coalition between the U-Party and Vargas-Lleras. Santos will use all his power to further this coalition and to prevent Uribe’s protégé, Iván Duque, from winning the presidency. R...

Macroeconomic outlook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 03 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

We expect a slower economic recovery, higher inflation, a larger current account deficit and a more depreciated exchange rate. See our forecast for the first round presidential election.

Iván Duque: A star on the rise?
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Senator Iván Duque, the leading presidential candidate and a member of Alvaro Uribe’s Centro Democrático, recently presented his ideas about Colombia’s future in Washington and New York. He spoke eloquently in English, but in bumper-sticker style: his comments on justice, corruption, economics, o...

Eleven weeks is an eternity
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Mar 2018 · 1 response

A one-liner summarizing the results of last Sunday’s congressional elections would be that political extremes were strengthened, and congressional power has been fragmented. Indeed, the two party primaries gave momentum to the more radicalized views of the political right and left. Nearly six mil...

March 11
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Mar 2018

Some dates mark an epochal change in a process. That is the case of next Sunday, March 11, for the current presidential race. Many things we know about the political landscape until now will be seen under a different light thereafter. The key issues are: i) how many congressmen are elected for ea...

Vigencias futuras: How big?
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Mar 2018

Though fiscal policy will surely be discussed during this presidential campaign, a rather under-the-radar topic attracting criticism is the size of spending commitments President Juan Manuel Santos is leaving for future administrations to pay. These future budget commitments, known as vigencias f...

Colombian elections: Opinion versus machinery
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Feb 2018

From 2019 onwards, every high school graduate would have free college education in public universities, at a yearly cost of 14 trillion COP, approximately 1.5% of GDP, to be financed by reducing other less important public investments, such as the 4G road system. By constitutional mandate, the ju...

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