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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Investment Opportunities in 2014 Q1
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Feb 2014

Transportation Sector: More than USD35 billion planned over the next five years, with the largest share in roads. Port improvement, airport concessions, railways, waterways, logistics hubs and urban transportation projects are also set for development.Energy and Mining Sectors: After the USD6 bil...

All’s Well that Ends Well
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Q3 y/y GDP growth at 5.1% outstripped expectations, of 4.4% on average. As the strongest growth rate in more than six quarters, it has significant implications for monetary policy and the presidential elections, after a Q2 downward revision (to 3.9% from 4.2%) that stoked fears ...

Boring Race, Known Outcome
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Dec 2013

Executive Summary The most important new political development is, of course, the news that President Juan Manuel Santos will run for president in 2014. The organizational apparatus is already in place, with Germán Vargas-Lleras and Juan Mesa in Fundación Buen Gobierno; Roberto Prieto returning f...

President Santos Will Seek a 2nd Term
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 20 Nov 2013 · 2 responses

In a national TV broadcast, Juan Manuel Santos announced his intention to be reelected as Colombia's President next year.His reasons to run again: the need to continue fighting the war on poverty, improving security, increasing overall quality of life and achieving peace.He has yet to announce wh...

Former Friends Fighting for Votes
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 04 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryHouseholds are growing less indebted, due to slowing consumption lending – and that’s the main reason for the slowdown in consumption. Still, at nearly 74%, most household debt is still consumption debt. And consumption lending was rebounding in the first week of October. That’s ...

Q3 Woes Continue in Spite of Q2 Surprises
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Surprisingly strong Q2 GDP results were driven by fast-expanding agriculture, construction and social services, and general economic activity grew by a healthy 4.2%. The big shock was in manufacturing, which expanded by 1.2%, though leading indicators had suggested a negative re...

President's Popularity Crumbles
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Sep 2013 · 2 responses

Gallup released its most recent opinion poll and President Santos' popularity fell from 46% to 21%. Even though the poll was carried out last week when protests and strikes had reached a climax and before the President took bold moves to quell unjustified violence, his political future is riding ...

When The Going Gets Tougher
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The government and Central Bank have both cut their 2013 GDP growth forecasts – as other Latin American countries have done, given the situation up north. Even though we had initially (in July) lowered our forecast too, from 4.3% to 4%, now we’re lowering it again, to 3.6%, as r...

Referendum on peace negotiations to coincide with 2014 elections
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 22 Aug 2013

President Santos presented a bill to Congress to call for a referendum allowing Colombians to vote in favor or against an eventual peace agreement with FARC. Even though such an agreement has not been announced yet (November is supposed to be the deadline), Mr. Santos has said that everything has...

In a Good Place
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryDespite emergent risks from recent external events, the Philippines is expected to avoid the downshifting in emerging markets and grow above historical trend this year and next. This is mainly because the country has been relying on local growth drivers and its good macro positio...

Rougher Riding
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 29 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryUnder the government and central bank’s balance of payments outlook for 2013-2017, the current account deficit is expected to peak this year and next at 3.4% of GDP, then fall to below 3% of GDP by 2017. But the capital account surplus is on track to fall from 4.3% this year to 3...

Construction to the Rescue
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThough Q1 economic growth at 2.8% did not disappoint, now we must ask: how will growth unfold for the rest of 2013, and into 2014? Part of the answer lies in the only sector that overperformed in Q1: construction. Expanding 16.9% in Q1, construction has saved the day, and is posi...

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