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President, Legislator, Judge - And Now Banker
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The long-awaited free trade agreement with the European Union materialized last week, after Minister of External Commerce Francisco Ribadeneira successfully concluded the last round of negotiations in Europe.Though the deal could take 18 months to come into force, it looks certa...

One Step Closer To The Markets, One Step Farther From The Left
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Jun 2014

Executive SummaryThe controversial results –to say the least --of the last sectional elections of February 2014 paired with a tough fiscal situation brought back the pragmatic Correa to the surface once more. After taking a dig to the markets for the last seven years, he brought Ecuador back to W...

Will Ecuador return to Wall Street?
ECUADOR · In Brief · 05 Jun 2014

The operation between the Central Bank and Goldman Sachs involving gold reserves raised a wave of speculative comments. Here is a summary of the operations according to information provided by the BCE general management. The BCE will deposit 465,619 troy ounces of gold in a foreign account manage...

Our Worst Fears Confirmed
ECUADOR · In Brief · 26 May 2014

This weekend President Correa announced his decision to give green light to the initiative promoted by legislators from Alianza Pais of amending the constitution to allow "indefinite re-election" for all elected public representatives. His arguments were based on what he perceives as a an "eviden...

Squelching and Environmental Referendum
ECUADOR · Report · 23 May 2014

Executive Summary This year hasn’t started off well, for either the govenrment or its citizens. The government was stung by its party’s lackluster victories in local elections, and for the first time in seven years must cope with dwindling funds. And citizens concerned about the evironmmental eff...

Democracy or Monarchy?
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Mar 2014

Executive SummaryThe president’s Alianza Pais suffered a major political setback in the February 23rd local elections, losing control of nearly all key municipalities. Rafael Correa recognized the sectarianism of some party members, and expressed disappointment over his party’s apparent lack of p...

A Bath of Humility for the official Alianza Pais
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Feb 2014

Last Sunday 23d, Ecuadorians went to the polls for the 10th time since 2007 to elect sectional authorities. Every time, the President and his movement emerged victorious from these elections and public consultations. However, this last time is quite different. Quito, Guayaquil, and Cuenca and 16 ...

Back to the Seventies
ECUADOR · Forecast · 19 Feb 2014

Executive Summary The economy may have grown 4.5% last year -- 0.5 pp above expectations, though more slowly than in 2012. That would follow a Q3 growth rate of 4.9% y/y, and 1.8% q/q – the highest quarterly growth rate in a year. Oil is the driver of these happy results: oil manufacturing expand...

Tweaking The Model To The Left?
ECUADOR · Report · 28 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryThe beginning of 2014 brought important changes regarding laws and regulations that will affect the productive and financial sectors. Companies will face restrictive changes in their marketing and publicity strategies and decisions as well as in their product labeling practices. ...

Will Oil Price Be The Scrooge Of The Ecuadorian Economy?
ECUADOR · Report · 26 Dec 2013

Executive SummaryThe strong fall in oil prices since October 2013 and less than optimistic estimations for the future forced government officials to come up with lower GDP growth rates for 2014 and 2015. Minister of Finance Fausto Herrera placed these rates at 4% for 2014 falling back to 3.5% in ...

Correa Bullish on the Economy
ECUADOR · Forecast · 26 Nov 2013

Executive Summary President Rafael Correa sounded very optimistic when he announced sharply higher projections for economic performance, not only for 2013, but for the next three years as well.The government expects GDP to grow 4.1% this year, then 4.5% in 2014, 4.7% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016. Aut...

Oil Boosts Finances; the President Makes Threats
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Oct 2013

Executive Summary The oil sector delivered mixed news in Q3. Crude oil production rose by 15,000 barrels per day in January-August 2013, from 2012.This fact, plus a high average oil price of $97.91 per barrel, helped to boost crude oil exports 2.7% y/y, from $8.717 billion to $8.950 billion. Yet ...

Yasuni is Worth $18b in Present Value but What is the Net Present Value?
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Oct 2013

As all expected, the National Assembly declared of "national interest" the exploitation of the Yasuni oil reserves.  With 108 votes against 25, legislators included blocks 43 and 31 in the document.  However, the approval excludes activities in the "intangible zone" --the area where the Tagaeri-T...

Going Into Extractivism to Get Out From Extractivism
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryEcuadorians do not understand why President Correa is enduring the evident political cost of pushing for Legislative approval to exploit the ITT camps. The $2.5b per year in revenues for around 20 years, seem insufficient to achieve the economic transformation the government link...

Green Light for the ITT
ECUADOR · In Brief · 18 Sep 2013

The Commission of Bio-Diversity of the National Assembly approved last night the request from President Correa to declare the ITT oil camp of economic priority.  This approval virtually gives the government green light to exploit the oil camps of Tambococha, Tiputini and Ishpingo located in the Y...

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