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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Cherries, tourists, tariffs and expectations
CHILE · Report · 07 Apr 2025

A breeze of optimism has swept across Chile. According to the national accounts, GDP grew by 2.6% in 2024. Still, we are not revising our baseline 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025 just yet. Several factors prompt caution. First, statistical distortions have been at work. Second, some temporary dri...

Sailing into a stormy world
INDIA · Report · 07 Apr 2025

The India-US goods trade is not very large, and while the 26% tariff will of course hurt, the damage in and of itself is relatively modest. The really important questions lie beyond. A recession in the US and difficulties in the world economy will weigh upon Indian growth. If the trade war get...

Health tax on entrepreneurs lowered (or not). MPC: Has Glapiński just changed his view?
POLAND · In Brief · 07 Apr 2025

News on the health tax After a lengthy disagreement amongst the coalition members (with the left opposing the law), the parliament has proposed a law to lower the health tax on the self-employed. Starting January 1, 2026, the new system will consist of flat-rate and percentage-based parts. The fl...

Both retail sales and industrial output followed their respective trends in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Apr 2025

Retail sales fell by 0.6% mom, but it grew by 3.3% yoy, in volume terms, in February. The fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100, source: KSH), suggests that it was a correction after January's outstandingly robust result, back to an otherwise significantly increasing trend: So, the trend of strengthen...

Bolsonaro’s demonstration saw a significant turnout, the income tax bill should be analyzed in the Special Committee this week, and the Senate may vote on the bill concerning persistent tax debtors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Apr 2025

The demonstration called by former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo (SP) saw a significant turnout. It is estimated that around 55,000 people attended the political event. This week, the Special Committee is expected to be set up to analyze the bill that exempts indi...

Shape of things to come
TURKEY · Report · 06 Apr 2025

The politics section consists of a single essay, which attempts to answer how the current political upheaval will progress. It is relatively easy to foresee the near future, with sporadic mass protests and Erdogan trying to manage them by tactical retreats, to be reversed with sudden attacks on C...

Seven likely outcomes in China from the Trump tariffs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2025

China struck back against the new tariffs with a significant 34 percent tariff on US goods, set to take effect on April 10. This is a much broader attack on the US than China engaged in during the first Trump Administration. China also restricted exports of seven types of rare earth metals, added...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops $10 due to trade war and OPEC+ hike, Saudi Arabia’s current account falls into deficit, Abu Dhabi sees strong GDP growth, Bahrain’s FDI surges in Q4
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Apr 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil crashed by $10 in two days to $65, a 4-year low, due largely to the US trade war. * OPEC+ also announced unexpected production hikes to punish Kazakh overproduction. * GCC states all have trade deficits with the...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Consumer confidence index records annual and monthly decline
MEXICO · In Brief · 04 Apr 2025

Consumer confidence in March records annual and monthly decline, reflecting persistent deterioration over the past four months The consumer confidence index for March 2025 fell by -1.3 points compared to the same month last year, marking its third consecutive annual decline. This drop was driven ...

SA’s political economy erupts: The politics of Fiscal Framework 2025 rattle the Government of National Unity, and President Trump piles on tariffs and turmoil
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Apr 2025

April 3, 2025 may turn out to be a memorable day in SA’s annual calendar in 2025. On the one hand, the domestic tensions within the Government of National Unity (GNU) erupted into the open. This has been building since February 19, when the scheduled Budget Speech 2025 had to be postponed due to...

Webinar Replay and Slide Presentation - Argentina’s Economic Crossroads: Currency valuation, IMF talks and the path to stability
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Apr 2025

Is the Argentine peso overvalued and will there be another devaluation? Are Argentina’s national accounts balanced at the current ARS level? What are the timelines and conditions for IMF negotiations? How will inflation dynamics develop? What impact will credit penetration have? What is the curre...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia - What happened in Gyumri?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Apr 2025

While the world is justifiably focused on US tariffs, I ponder on the much more esoteric, but no less exciting topic of regional elections in Armenia. Last week the second-largest city in the country, Gyumri, held municipal elections that delivered a result that may have very important consequen...

Webinar Replay - Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead
ECUADOR · Report · 04 Apr 2025

What is the impact of the debate on the election? How have vote intentions changed since the first electoral round? What are the challenges and opportunities for Daniel Noboa during this second round campaign? Is it possible to expect a moderate government from Luisa Gonzalez should she win? How ...

Motta has appointed Lira as the rapporteur for the bill on income tax, Lewandowski will meet with Motta next week to present a PEC on public security, and the STF will discuss two important cases next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2025

The President of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), has officially appointed Arthur Lira (PP-AL) as the rapporteur for the bill on income tax exemption. A special committee will be established next week. On Tuesday, April 8, the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Ricardo Lewandowski, ...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Private consumption falls YoY in January for second consecutive month
MEXICO · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Private consumption in January: Second consecutive annual decline driven by sharp contraction in imported goods consumption, in addition to persistent weakness in domestic goods spending. Private consumption fell -0.9% YoY in January 2025, marking the second consecutive decline after maintaining ...

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