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There will be no activity in Congress this week, the mood in the Senate regarding Tax Reform is positive, and the CARF bill should be approved in August
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2023

This will be a slow week, with no activity in Congress. The mood in the Senate regarding Tax Reform is positive. In the Senate, the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) on Tax Reform will be analyzed by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) before being put to a vote in the plenary. The...

China’s weak Q2 economic data
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Jul 2023

China reported weak economic Q2 2023 data. GDP rose 6.3 percent. This was below median forecasts of 7.1 percent by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, but many sell-side economists may have been bullish in their forecasts for political reasons. Retail sales were anemic at 3.1 percent, and auto s...

Signs of inflation moderation
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jul 2023

1. June’s CPI points to broad deceleration of inflation, both in goods and services, especially rental prices. 2. Growth in Q223 is likely to remain fairly robust on the back of strong exports of goods (defense exports mostly). 3. The shekel remains vulnerable to expectations regarding the ...

Quo Vadis Mr Erdogan?
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

Executive Summary: Erdogan’s reinvention in progress, preview of a critical week and Ukraine grain deal This Special Brief is filed separately from our Weekly Tracker because of time differences between USA and Turkey, and my impending trip to NYC where I shall be visiting members of our GSP audi...

Azerbaijan: Inflation continues to inch down, but remains in double digits
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

The Jun inflation print indicates that, albeit moderating, price growth momentum remains strong. Inflation in Azerbaijan had increased substantially from the lows of 2020 (2.4 percent YoY in Oct’2020) chiefly on account of food prices, but has stabilized in 2022 and so far in 2023, having only ma...

Economic growth remains stable in June and 1H23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly aggregate measure of economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications grew by 5.6% y-o-y in 1H23, which was well above 4.5% y-o-y reported for 5M23. It means that...

Crimea Bridge closed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

On July 17 Russian authorities said there was an emergency on Kerch Strait Bridge and two people had died. There are reports that there was an explosion. Russia has not said there was an attack. Russia said the road surface has been damaged. Ukraine has not commented on the bridge incident. Ukrai...

Signs of inflation moderation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jul 2023

Inflation in June surprised on the downside (as it did May) Core inflation slowed to 4.5% y/y from 4.9% in May and 5.3% in April. Prices of both goods and services (rental prices especially) have decelerated. We expect inflation to reach 2.6% in the coming year, as domestic demand slows, housing ...

Playing catch up
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jul 2023

Our politics author will write his update separately in the next 24-48 hours, because of a few emergencies he had to attend to; please accept our apologies. We start this econ-only Weekly with a preview of this Thursday’s upcoming MPC/CBRT meeting, at which we think there is again a risk of un...

Azerbaijan and Armenia negotiate in Brussels as Baku criticizes Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2023

On July 15 the President of Azerbaijan met the Armenian Prime Minister. The EU facilitated the talks. This is the 6th time they have met since 2021. The President of the European Council asked the two leaders to return to Brussels in the fall of the 2023. The US had also hosted talks between them...

Wagner is and is not
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2023

On July 15 Ukraine said that Wagner is in Belarus. Belarus claims that Wagner troops are training the Belarusian Army. It was reported by Belarusian oppositionists on July 14 that 60 Wagner vehicles arrived in Belarus. But there were 25,000 Wagner troops in June 2023. The June Mutiny led to the a...

Ukraine admits its counter-offensive is not succeeding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2023

On July 14 the head of the Presidential Administration said Ukraine's soldiers are not making rapid progress. Andriy Yermak acknowledged that the battles are very tough. However, he added that Western allies are not asking Ukraine to speed up. Ukraine still has not committed most of its troops to...

Putin hints he may end the Black Sea Grain Initiative
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2023

On July 13 he said that no concessions have been made to Russia about the BSGI. The BSGI was signed in 2022 and has allowed Ukraine to export 32 million tons of grain as well as sunflower oil. The BSGI expires on July 18. Turkey was instrumental in getting Ukraine and Russia to sign the BSGI. The...

2023 same as 2022
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

According to our calculations, inflation for June reached 9.0 percent. According to the numbers of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), it was 6.1 percent. Both estimates exceed the 5.1-percent rate observed in May. Despite the slowdown in public spending, the authorities have not been able to b...

Once more inflation came in below expectations, yet the BCRA maintains interest rates
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

Despite expecting some moderation in the inflation level, June's result was, once again, undoubtedly lower than anticipated. But what makes the June result more interesting than May's outcome is that its “more benign” results cannot be explained by mere seasonal factors, and the results were mor...

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