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Lula met with government leaders to discuss Eletrobras, pressure on the agency Ibama continues, and Senate President Alcolumbre will meet with party leaders to determine the voting agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025

Yesterday, President Lula discussed the Eletrobras issue with Chief of Staff Rui Costa, Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira, Minister of Management Esther Dweck and Attorney General Jorge Messias. A conciliation agreement is expected to be announced in the coming days. Yesterday, Mini...

Is the peso overvalued? A technical note
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Feb 2025

In this report, I argue that, contrary to what President Milei and members of his economic team say, the Argentine peso is overvalued. By how much—I don't know, nor do I think anyone does. I know that the peso is overvalued for three reasons. First, because of the cepo: if it didn't exist, the no...

Israel’s GDP growth slows in Q4 2024, labor market remains tight
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Feb 2025

The initial estimate for the fourth quarter of 2024 reveals a slowdown in Israel’s GDP growth to 2.5%, down from an upwardly revised 5.3% in the previous quarter, according to initial estimates from the Central Bureau of Statistics. GDP fell sharply in Q4 2023 after the economy almost shut down d...

GDP grew by 4.8% in 2024, growth acceleration unlikely this year
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Feb 2025

Last Friday, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP grew by 4.8%, which is not too bad (albeit the government growth targets are more ambitious). Production of goods (35% of GDP) was up by 5.6%, as industry, agriculture, and construction delivered 2.8%, 13.7%, and 13.1%...

A rare occasion: PM Orbán comments on the forint's exchange rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2025

This morning, PM Orbán has put on to his facebook a short video. In this, he is sitting at his desk, attentively studying a full-page chart with European gas prices. Asked from the backstage how the week is going, he says that they closed last week and also started this week with the discussion o...

Another week of solid data, rising tensions
TURKEY · Report · 16 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Domestic political tensions continue to rise. A new lawsuit has been launched against the Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, while an investigation on bribery in CHP’s last grand convention could lead to the party being managed by a government-appointed trustee for a year or two. The politics author ...

Israel CPI: Inflation rises to 3.8% in January, VAT hike and tariffs drive index higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2025

January CPI overview Israel's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% in January, slightly above our forecast of 0.5%, bringing annual inflation to 3.8%, up from 3.2% in December. The increase was primarily driven by the higher VAT, taxes on electric vehicles, and rising electricity, water, and m...

GULF WEEKLY: US tariffs threaten aluminum exporters, Saudi deficit is as expected, Kuwait plans bonds, Lebanon forms cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Feb 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump’s 25% tariff on aluminum will hurt Gulf exporters. They are already subject to 25% on steel. * The GCC states are unlikely to be priority targets for Trump’s mooted “reciprocal” tariffs. * As Trump engages with Russ...

Haddad believes there is room for negotiation with the US regarding tariffs, today Haddad travels to the Middle East for the IMF Conference, and next week the STF will resume deliberations on an appeal on nepotism
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2025

The Brazilian government has been cautious regarding the tariffs announced by the United States. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stated that the best approach at the moment is to wait, as he believes there is room for negotiation. Today, Haddad is traveling to the Middle East, where he will part...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tourism statistics in Georgia defy political crisis
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Feb 2025

Tourism in Georgia has traditionally been a cash cow for the economy, having brought on average about 8 percent of GDP annually over 2010-2023. Naturally, then, the events of the last year with the adoption of the Transparency Law (foreign agents law) and the disputed Parliamentary elections have...

Unpegging the Hong Kong dollar peg
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Feb 2025

Given the difficult state of Hong Kong’s economy, and more broadly its role in the world, it is not surprising that we are seeing speculation about how the city will refashion itself under tighter mainland control. There are concerns about the direction of the economy; the strength of its pillar ...

Slide presentation - North America Trade War: Implications for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2025

Get insight into the tariff issues between the U.S. and Mexico with the slide presentation from our webinar "North America Trade War: Implications for Mexico". The US administration agreed to pause the tariffs originally scheduled to take effect in early February for Canada and Mexico for 30 day...

Institutional Relations Minister Padilha outlined the government’s legislative priorities, Lula criticized the federal agency Ibama regarding oil exploration in the Amazon, and truckers issued a statement about a possible strike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2025

Yesterday, the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, presented the federal government's priorities to the President of the Lower House, Deputy Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), during a meeting in the deputy’s office, alongside party leaders. The agenda is divided into six pillars. ...

"Peace for Our Time": Trump talks to Putin—will history repeat itself?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Feb 2025

The ballet of peace negotiations is intensifying. Donald Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin, claiming that the Russian leader wants peace in Ukraine. Meanwhile, newly appointed U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth publicly stated that he does not believe Ukraine will regain its 2014 borders and ru...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Feb 2025

Market sentiment improved significantly in the past two weeks as investors started to speculate on a possibility of de-escalation in Ukraine. The conversation between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin was considered an important indicator of the high likelihood of this scenario. As a result, the ruble appr...

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