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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The House is scheduled to vote on the Precatórios PEC on Tuesday, the Senate CAE holds confirmation hearings for official appointments on Tuesday, and the STF goes into recess on Friday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Since the Precatórios PEC was modified by the senators, it needs to be re-analyzed by the deputies. The parts that were changed in the Senate will be added to a PEC that is ready for a vote in the plenary of the House. As this will be a different PEC, the Senate will have to vote on it again. The...

Rapid decline in fiscal deficit improves fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Highlights: The fiscal deficit declines sharply * In November, the fiscal deficit declined to 4.6% GDP LTM from 5.5%. * Tax revenues are up 24% y/y this year while non-Covid spending is up only 2.3%. We expect a low fiscal deficit of 2.7% in 2022. FX: The shekel appreciated by 1....

Rapid decline in fiscal deficit improves fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Dec 2021

The fiscal deficit declines sharply In November, the fiscal deficit declined to 4.6% GDP LTM from 5.5%. Tax revenues are up 24% y/y this year while non-Covid spending is up only 2.3%. We expect a low fiscal deficit of 2.7% in 2022. FX: The shekel appreciated by 1.7% last week against the basket. ...

G7 threatens severe sanctions if Russia does not withdraw troops from Ukrainian border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2021

On December 11 the group of the 7 most industrialized nations issued a statement from Liverpool, UK. They called for Russia to resume diplomacy. The G7 comprises the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the EU. It used to be the G8 until Russia was expelled over Crimea in 2014. T...

What a fine mess we are in
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2021 · 1 response

In two recent briefs (A First Take On An Unprecedented Experiment, November 21, 2021, and This Time Is Different, November 28), we have laid out our thoughts on Ankara’s so-called New Economic Model, and speculated on a few near-term scenarios -- namely, the “good” (it works), the “most likely” (...

Russian awarded Nobel Peace Prize
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2021

On December 10 Dmitry Muratov was awarded the prize in Oslo, Norway. He is the third Russian to be awarded the prize. He is editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta newspaper. The newspaper is fiercely independent and often critical of the government. Several Novaya Gazeta journalists have been killed ov...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE shifts its weekend, MBS completes his Gulf tour, Qatar releases budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Dec 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks today, although the US is upping the pressure. * MBS completed his tour of the Gulf in Kuwait today. The most visible immediate outcome of the tour were agreements signed...

The Auxílio Brasil program is expected to begin issuing payments today, the Senate approved the extension of the payroll tax exemption, and the House continues to analyze the Precatórios PEC
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2021

The Auxílio Brasil payments of R$ 400 may have a positive effect on the government’s ratings. The latest poll shows that negative ratings dropped by 3%, positive ratings remained stable and the regular rating increased by 4%. The approved payroll tax exemption bill will now go for presidential sa...

Russian macro forecast: emphasis on inflation and rates as growth returned and “booster” sanctions offered
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 09 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that 2Q21 GDP was up by 4.3% y-o-y, implying that the economic growth could vary between 4.6% and 4.7% in 9М21, which is in line with our previous 2021 GDP growth forecast, which ranged from 4.2% to 4.3%. In 2022 GDP growth will naturally decelerate. What has changed signific...

Deepening relationship between Belarus and Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

On November 30 Minsk announced that it recognizes Crimea as Russian. Belarus had vacillated on this issue for years. Minsk was even a venue for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Belarus appeared to try to be equidistant between the West and Russia. This was never convincing since Belarus i...

South Africa records its fifth consecutive current account surplus in Q3
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2021

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2021, South Africa’s current account registered its fifth consecutive surplus since the third quarter of 2020. The surplus however narrowed from R311 billion in the second quarter ...

The current account surplus to be record high in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The CBR published its flash estimate of the 11M21 current account surplus and the trade balance. The former widened from $94.4bn in 10M21 to $111.4bn. The latter increased to $162.8 bn. In 2021 as a whole, the current account will likely reach $128bn (if not more) therefore beating the historical...

The NBU lifts policy rate by 0.5 ppt up to 9.0% amid concerns on capital outflow
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The NBU Board increased policy rate by 0.5 ppt up to 9.0%. The decision was not obvious: in polls analysts split 50/50 with near half of observers (including us) anticipated policy rate to remain unchanged. However, the decision went in line with previous communication of the NBU which articulate...

Where are the jobs?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The October rounds of the Labor Force Survey (LFS) highlight a key weakness in the economy’s recovery from the pandemic: lack of quality jobs. The impact on household incomes and consumption will hamper the recovery. Between 2019 and 2021, the labor force grew faster than the working age populati...

The 1-week depo rate has moved further up today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The MNB called its usual weekly 1-week deposit tender with a 3.3% interest rate, up by another 20 bps from last Thursday. The Bank collected HUF8194bn of HUF liquidity through this tender, which provided banks with unlimited access, as usual.In addition, today is the value date for the first reve...

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