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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Regarding Kemal Kilicdaroglu
TURKEY · Report · 06 Dec 2021 · 1 response

Over the weekend, the Financial Times published an expose about CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 11 years after he ascended to the throne of the party. I predict with 73.496% confidence that the WSJ and the Economist shall follow suit, thus it became incumbent upon me to steal the march on them.

Some initial signs of wage inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Dec 2021

Highlights of our weekly review:Signs of some wage inflationThe average wage increased by 1.7% m/m in September (sa).Average wage growth over the past two years is up 4.8% annual, accelerating from 4.1% last month.Wage pressure is more apparent in communications and information (up 9.2%), finance...

Russia has probably suffered the most coronavirus deaths of any country
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2021 · 1 response

Statistics out on December 3 showed that the death toll in October 2021 was a record. There were 90,000 coronavirus deaths from October 2021 which is a 57% YoY increase. That is a damning indictment of the failure to get more people vaccinated. There have been 813,000 coronavirus deaths in total ...

EU provides defense equipment to Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2021

On December 2 it was announced that the EU will strengthen the defense capacities of these three Eastern European nations. This comes under the European Peace Facility scheme. No weapons will be provided.Georgia will receive USD 14 million worth of equipment. This is mostly medical and engineerin...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ sticks with taper, S&P stabilizes Bahrain, Macron sells jets to UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Dec 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ surprised markets by sticking with its taper but hinted that it could reconsider mid-month if needed. * Iran nuclear talks finally reconvened, just as Iran restarted enrichment at a controversial underground site. ...

The vote on the Precatórios PEC was concluded in the Senate, the Auxílio Brasil MP was approved, and the STF discusses the constitutionality of the transfer of public service concessions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2021

Lower House President Arthur Lira supports the partial enactment of the Precatórios PEC. There will have to be a close study on what can or cannot be enacted. The partial enactment of the PEC may cause negative reactions from some senators, who would like the House to analyze the entire text appr...

Inflation jumps in November, but this is just a beginning
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

Consumer prices rose by 3.5%, m/m, in November, higher than the consensus of around 3%, with the 12-month rate increasing further to 21.3% from 19.9% in October. Producer prices rose by a whopping –though not so surprising (given the direct effects of currency weakness and higher energy prices in...

Sputnik V slowed by WHO's onerous bureaucracy - claims global backer
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2021

On December 2 the statement was made. The vaccine was registered in Russia in August 2020. Russia is very proud that it beat the world in registing the first vaccine. The vaccine is also a means for Russia to assert its soft power. It has produced a friendlier image of Russia in dozens of countri...

Spending plan 2022 approved with small deficit 3.5% of GDP and conservative revenues targets
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Dec 2021

Yesterday, on Dec 2nd, Verkhovna Rada approved spending plan 2022. The final version of the document was not released yet, some marginal revenues and spending have been added on the last moment. But the deficit target was left unchanged at the level of 3.5% of GDP. Targeted tax collections remain...

Economic growth looked decent in October but accelerated inflation will erode it at year-end
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that in 10M21 and October, the aggregate output of the five basic sectors (industry, transport, trade, construction, agriculture) was up y-o-y by 6.3% and 6.5%. This measure of the country’s economic activity is usually more volatile than GDP but is calculated monthly, while the ...

André Mendonça’s appointment to the STF was confirmed by the Senate yesterday, the Precatórios PEC will be put to a vote in the Senate today, and the STF continues to discuss the constitutionality of the sanitation framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2021

André Mendonça’s inauguration should take place in the next few days — before the recess of the Judiciary, which begins on December 18. The score was close, 47 votes in favor and 32 against. The Court will now be complete with 11 ministers. The session in the Senate to vote on the Precatórios PEC...

Pandora’s hope
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 02 Dec 2021

The Philippine economy withstood a Delta-driven surge in Q3 and is set to end the year on a high note. We forecast GDP growth at 5.5% this year and next, bringing domestic output to pre-pandemic levels only by late 2022. This outlook is based on two critical assumptions: (1) existing vaccines wor...

Russia commences military exercises with South-East Asian allies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2021

On December 1 the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Russia began their drills in the Straits of Malacca. This is the first time Russia has taken part in drills with ASEAN. The Russian ship Admiral Pantaleev is there. Russia sells a lot of arms to Vietnam. This complicates Russia...

EU Court rapporteur recommends a negative decision for Hungary and Poland on the rule-of-law mechanism
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Dec 2021

This morning's forint-positive news (on MNB policy) has been quickly followed by a negative one, on the EU's new fiscal rule-of-law mechanism.It is that the EU Court's advocate general Manuel Campos Sánchez-Bordona, the rapporteur responsible for the case of the EU's new fiscal rule-of-law mechan...

One-week depo rate up again, MNB governor may have preempted the mid-December statement
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Dec 2021

Quite a lot is happening in the field of MNB policy again.First, the MNB has just set the 1-week deposit rate at 3.1% for this week's tender this morning, raising 20 bps from last weeks level. This followed Tuesday's decision to raise the interest rate corridor to 1.6-4.1%, preparing the ground f...

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