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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Good fiscal data, combined with a cooling economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Oct 2021

We have got somewhat mixed feelings, having seen the most recent macro data releases.On the one hand, the general government deficit by Eurostat's ESA-2010 methodology, i.e. the main policy indicator on fiscal balance, was an excellent 4.2% of GDP in H1, 0.5%-point below the corresponding data fo...

Sen. Roberto Rocha submitted his report on the Tax Reform, Paulo Guedes and Roberto Campos Neto may have to appear before Congress regarding their offshore accounts, and Arthur Lira will vote on a proposal that changes the calculation of fuel prices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Oct 2021

Senator Roberto Rocha’s report provides for the creation of a dual Value Added Tax (VAT). One part creates the CBS tax and the other, the IBS tax. The Senate approved the new railroad legal framework. The text will now go to the House for further analysis. The Committee on Work, Administration an...

Beijing’s Evergrande solution
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Oct 2021

Beijing believes the risks of a US-style financial crisis caused by a property bubble outweigh the risks of an Evergrande default. But it is also encouraging a “soft” landing for the resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems that would avoid political unrest and a bank crisis. How will Beijing res...

No news is... no news
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2021

The communiqué issued in Mexico on September 27, 2021, indicates the parties' willingness to continue negotiating and make the negotiations more inclusive through a consultation and participation mechanism involving political and social, national and international, actors. The government swiftly ...

Reports show Paulo Guedes and Roberto Campos Neto have offshore companies, the Senate may vote on the railroad framework today, and a partner of the logistics company VTCLog, Raimundo Nonato Brasil, testifies in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2021

Randolfe Rodrigues (Rede-AP), submitted a request to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to open a preliminary investigation against Paulo Guedes and Roberto Campos Neto. The PSOL caucus in the House has started collecting signatures for the opening of a CPI on this issue. Despite the discomfort, the...

Coronavirus surging in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Oct 2021

On October 5 the record for daily deaths was surpassed yet again. There were 895 deaths from coronavirus in 24 hours. The total death toll from the pandemic is 211,000 which is the highest in Europe.A new rise in cases has caused several regions to reintroduce restrictions for the first time sinc...

Economics: Indicators in September suggest the recovery may be slowing
MEXICO · Report · 04 Oct 2021

Economic data released in September provided further confirmation that the Mexican economy continues to sustain some momentum as the country’s vaccination efforts advance, with just over half of the population's having received at least one dose, and there is a further relaxation of mobility rest...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Oct 2021

With a good pace of vaccination against Covid-19, 71% of Brazilians have now received at least the first vaccination dose. With this excellent adhesion, together with the widespread use of masks, for the past few weeks the moving average of daily deaths has been oscillating around 500. All the sa...

Politics: Charges against scientists raise doubts over policy and the country’s top prosecutor
MEXICO · Report · 04 Oct 2021

Many critics have observed that President López Obrador’s “hugs not bullets” approach has translated into a largely hands-off approach to the country’s drug cartels and other organized crime outfits. But it seems that AMLO and other members of his administration, including his Attorney General, h...

The complex scenario for a third candidate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2021

As announced by the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), the goal is to find a solution for the fuel price issue. In the Senate, the vote on the railways legal framework bill is scheduled for Tuesday, October 5. The DEM and the PSL will formalize their merger. There are a number of releva...

Turkey Covid Watch - October 4, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2021

Cases edged up over the past two weeks. The test of the system is to come in the coming weeks with the return of the cold weather. Our baseline is some further rise in cases but not sustained exponential growth or lockdowns.

Economic growth moderates in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Oct 2021 · 1 response

Rosstat reported that basic sector output (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade combined) was up y-o-y by 4.0% and 6.4% in August and 8M21. Growth in August was relatively slow due to negative y-o-y growth in Agriculture (-10.1%) as harvesting season this year started later than ...

Predictably persistent
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2021

Consumer prices increased by 1.25%, m/m, in September, broadly in line with the consensus, including ours, with the 12-month rate rising further to 19.6% from 19.25% in August. Producer prices rose by 1.55% in the month, m/m, with the 12-month rate easing somewhat to 44% from 45.5% earlier, but c...

The politics of the fourth withdrawal
CHILE · Report · 04 Oct 2021 · 2 responses

This week the discussion of the bill enabling a fourth withdrawal of up to 10% of private pension funds moves on to the Senate, having been approved by the lower house. Most observers believe the bill will be rejected in the Senate. Our calculations indicate that, on paper, the bill is four or fi...

Wednesday is the deadline for submitting amendments to the court-ordered payments PEC, the Senate should vote on the new railway legal framework on Tuesday, and the DEM and PSL merger is scheduled for Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2021

Deputy Hugo Motta, the rapporteur of the court-ordered payments PEC, should submit his report on the text this week or next week. The rapporteur of the railway framework, Senator Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN), submitted his report last week, and the trend is for approval. The new party formed by the m...

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