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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Groundbreaking for an EV battery plant
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Sep 2021

Indonesia has made an important step toward becoming a base for the production of electric vehicles (EVs). In 2020 Hyundai Motor started the construction of its automotive plant in Karawang, Indonesia, approximately 50 km east of Jakarta. Then in mid-September 2021, LG Chem jointly with Hyundai M...

COVID resurges, even as finances stabilize
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Sep 2021

El Salvador’s economy shows remarkable dynamism toward overcoming the economic effects of the pandemic, in H1 2022 or even earlier. In politics, understanding where El Salvador is headed continues to be a hard task. President Nayib Bukele’s political discourse normally highlights success in confr...

The two main issues moving Brasilia are fuel prices and the emergency aid program, Sen. Tasso Jereissati withdrew from the PSDB primaries, and the Pandemic CPI should hear businessman Luciano Hang today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2021

Yesterday, the president of the House, Arthur Lira, tweeted that Brazil can no longer tolerate gas prices at R$ 7 and cooking gas at R$ 120. Yesterday, the National Secretary of the Treasury, Jeferson Bittencourt, said that the government has "strong reservations" about renewing the emergency aid...

A Public Budget Bill for 2022 without fiscal reform and a deficit of 3% of GDP
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 28 Sep 2021

The Council of Minister approved yesterday that the General Public Sector Budget Bill for 2022 will have a deficit of 3% of GDP. The amount of income is projected in DOP871 b. and the total expenses and financial applications would amount to DOP1,046 b. The financing need would amount to DOP175 b...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2021

* The Russian parliamentary elections led to victory for the ruling party. The outcome of the election came as no surprise. The United Russia Party is the main pro-Kremlin party, although Putin has not been a member for over 10 years. United Russia has 315 out of the 450 seats in the Duma. Tur...

Emergency aid payments may have to be extended, Sen. Tasso Jereissati may announce his withdrawal from the PSDB primaries, and the PSL and the DEM should meet to discuss their merger
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2021

The Auxílio Brasil program is scheduled to replace the emergency aid payments in November but this depends on a solution to the court-ordered payments issue and the approval of the income tax bill. Senator Tasso Jereissati of the PSDB is expected to announce his support for the governor of Rio Gr...

Politics: AMLO’s approval ratings firm even as voters grow more skeptical on key issues
MEXICO · Report · 28 Sep 2021

In the latest GEA-ISA national poll of registered voters, President López Obrador's approval numbers rose 4 points to 54%, although that was exact same reading Felipe Calderón scored at the same point in his administration, 12 years earlier. A series of developments contributed to this recent fir...

Russian macro: the ruble’s dependence on oil to increase if the latter climbs further
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

As the oil price has climbed close to $80/bbl, and it cannot be ruled out that the upward trend will continue, the ruble has remained relatively weak and has not yet appreciated to below USD/RUB 72. With the oil price fluctuating between $70 and $75/bbl the USD/RUB exchange rate fluctuated within...

Kazakhstan faces the future
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

​The long-standing conflict in Afghanistan consistently undermined the outlook of Central Asia for over 20 years. Yet within the region, Kazakhstan has been a relative economic success story in the context of conflict-ridden neighboring states and a divergent Soviet breakup. Now, following the...

Economics: The state of subnational public finance and why 2022 could pose major challenges
MEXICO · Report · 27 Sep 2021

As we continue our analysis of the 2022 federation budget, this week we turn our attention to how it might impact the finances of local governments as well as what has been achieved in roughly five years of efforts to bring some discipline and visibility at that level. The Fiscal Discipline Law o...

What can still be approved by the Legislature in 2021 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

Congress meets to vote on presidential vetoes. The Special Committee on the court-ordered payments PEC will set its work schedule. Data related to federal public accounts will be published. On Friday, the Bolsonaro government will complete 1000 days, and the president has a week of events planned...

The Interconnection of the Brazilian and Chinese Economies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

THE MONETARY POLICY MAP – Next Wednesday, BRAZILIAN GROWTH AND COMMODITY PRICES – The best way to depict the dependence of growth of the Brazilian economy on Chinese growth is to examine the dispersion diagram in Graph 1. The Granger causality test based on quarterly data shows that variations of...

Friday will be Bolsonaro’s 1000th day as President of Brazil, Congress analyzes presidential vetoes, and Anatel should publish the 5G auction notice
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

President Bolsonaro has a busy schedule this week with several events across the country. The list of vetoes to be analyzed includes those regarding the privatization of Eletrobras; the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO); party federations; and the suspension of evictions until the end of 2021. The rapp...

A slightly surprising upgrade from Moody's
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2021

On Friday (September 24), Moody's announced an upgrade for Hungarian sovereign debt to Baa2/Stable from Baa3/Positive. This was not entirely unexpected, on the grounds that:- Moody's previous Baa3 was one notch below the BBB/Stable ratings maintained by S&P and Fitch Ratings; and- the agency held...

Crossroads everywhere
TURKEY · Report · 26 Sep 2021

Times are changing in Turkish politics rapidly, as President Erdogan reaches a fork in the path of foreign policy, as the opposition begins to unite and expand its member parties. Erdogan came back from his NY trip in bad spirits, blasting the Biden administration for the “usual suspects”, i.e...

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