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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Shekel appreciation continues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Sep 2021

Brief Weekly Macro Review26/9/21With Israel still enjoying a holiday season, economic data has been sparse. Here are some highlights: The shekel continues to appreciate, by 0.55% in the past week (against the basket) and by 0.9% so far this month (following 1% in August). In July, foreign investo...

Gazprom refuses to increase gas sales to the EU as prices soar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2021 · 1 response

On September 21 the Russian state gas giant declined to augment shipments to the west. The EU is staring an energy shortage in the face just as temperatures are cooling.On September 21 capacity for gas shipments via Ukrainian pipeline were held. Gazprom did not purchase additional capacity. The Y...

Top executive of Russian company arrested in the US
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2021

On September 24 Mark Gvetvay was arrested in the US and charged with hiding his control of foreign accounts and assets. He made his Russian wife a beneficial owner of the same. He has since divorced her. Gvetvay is an executive of Novatek. The company says the arrests will not disrupt the company...

Growth weakens, though more structural reforms are underway
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2021

Growth has weakened, especially in services. In August, industrial output grew 5.3% y/y, and was up 11.2% from August 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.4%, down 0.2 ppts from July, and down 1.2 ppts from Q2. The service production index has slowed since Q2, and grew only 4.8% y/y in Augus...

The South African Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged despite the stronger economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Sep 2021

Continuing with its trend of not altering interest rates since it cut them by 25 basis points at its July 2020 meeting, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) once again voted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%. With the repo rate at 3.5%, the ...

​GULF WEEKLY: Omani mineral exports surge, Covid restrictions ease, Royals hang in shorts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Sep 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * MBS hosted a casual bro's gathering in Neom for Qatar’s Emir and MBZ’s brother. Ministers from Qatar and Turkey also participated in a meeting in Dubai in a further sign of the regional de-escalation trend. * There were fu...

Dep. Maia’s report on the Administrative Reform proposal approved in the Special Committee, the STF should conclude the judgment on whether the Federal Government can charge taxes on tax refunds, and the House may vote on a fiscal incentives law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2021

The Administrative Reform proposal can now be put to a vote in the Plenary of the House, which should take place next week. There are currently 7 votes against the taxation of tax returns and 1 vote in favor. As a complementary law, the fiscal incentives law requires an absolute majority of votes...

Poland forces illegal immigrants to return to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2021

On September 23 Polish NGOs said that the Polish government is forcing hundreds of illegal immigrants back into Belarus - allegedly where they came from. The Polish authorities are arresting the migrants and then deporting them. Most of them are from Iraq and Iran. They are mostly young men. The ...

The clock is ticking
ECUADOR · In Brief · 23 Sep 2021

Guillermo Lasso will personally present the labor and tax reforms together with other bills to the assembly on Friday, September 24, after socializing their main contents tonight. The government has decided to send these bills together as one economically urgent law. In this fashion, the Assembly...

The CBRT capitulates sooner than expected
TURKEY · Report · 23 Sep 2021 · 1 response

In a surprise move of sorts, the CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate (one-week repo) by 100 bps to 18% (simple) today (see chart). We are saying “of sorts”, because even though the “revealed” consensus was one of no rate-cut, everyone, including this author, was nervous that a premature rate cut could f...

​Inflation remains elevated despite growing domestic manufacturing as the domestic demand expands faster amid election-related stimulus
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2021

The Russian industrial output continued to grow in August relatively fast y-o-y as in 8M21, and in August alone, it was up by 4.5% and 4.7% accordingly. As it happened every month in the past, Rosstat revised up previously published data for July and at the same time reported that seasonally adju...

Dep. Arthur Maia submitted his report on the Administrative Reform proposal, the Special Committee on the court-ordered payments PEC was installed, and the Electoral Reform proposal was approved in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2021

Deputy Maia included all three branches of government in his report. Voting on the text may be concluded today in the Special Committee, and the text will then go to the House for further analysis in the coming days. Deputy Diego Andrade (PSD-MG) was elected president of the Special Committee on ...

Quick update on the Mexico talks
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 23 Sep 2021

Maduro: let’s talk about SDRs In response to a proposal put forth by the Maduro government, the agenda for the September 24–27 session of the Mexico talks will include the issue of access to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) recently assigned to Venezuela. By pro...

​The state of Turkish opposition: Is a rebirth possible?
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2021

For decade or so, I and Turkey commentators viewed Turkey through the lens of Erdogan’s eye. This was rational, as he completely dominated the political scene, outmaneuvering the opposition and deciding the national agenda in every sense of the world. I claim the end of the Erdogan Era is drawing...

Further thoughts on the new Bahamas government lack of a "honeymoon". Is any change to "Thunderball" note required?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2021 · 1 response

It is useful to look further at whether the recent Moody's ratings downgrade signifies any material change in The Bahamas position since my "Thunderball" pre-election note.1) Was the downgrade due to the election result? - Not very likely. The rating meeting occurred the day before the election a...

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