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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Essential CIS Politics: April 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2021

* US-Russian relations are worsening, with Russia temporarily withdrawing its ambassador and the US imposing more sanctions. * Diplomatic rows have emerged between Russia and the EU countries, notably the Czech Republic – with embassy staff expelled from both sides. * The RUB...

Economic recovery will support tapering of asset purchases
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Apr 2021

Highlights:Economic indicators continue to point to recovery In Q121 merchandise imports increased sharply, including consumer goods, raw materials and investment goods. This provides a good co-incident indicator as well as a leading indicator of economic growth. Industrial exports contracted in ...

Hello darkness, my old friend
TURKEY · Report · 25 Apr 2021

Mr. Biden’s declaration of the horrible events of 1915 as “genocide” puts Turkey once again in a dark tunnel, where the end is not visible. This is not a symbolic act, but an earthquake that will spread through fault lines in numerous directions. The politics section of this Weekly is dedicated t...

Biden recognises the Armenian Genocide
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2021

On April 24 the US President stated that the mass slaying of Armenians in the First World War was genocide. The killing was committed by the Ottoman Empire, which is the predecessor of Turkey.Armenia is a former Soviet country and is more in Russia's orbit than any other former Soviet republic. Y...

Russian interest raised in bid to curb inflation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2021

On April 23 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) raised the interest rate to 5%. It was 4.5%. This is the second rise since March. Inflation is jeopardizing economic recovery. Inflation is up to 5.8% and the CBR's goal is to keep it under 4%.The government has introduced price controls for particular...

Russia loosens entry requirements for foreigners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2021

On April 19 Moscow announced the relaxation of rules for foreign citizens visiting the country including Britons. People from 29 countries can come to Russia either directly or via one of the other 29 nations.The 29 nations include Switzerland, Finland, Germany, the UAE, various former Soviet cou...

Russia pulls troops back from Ukrainian Border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2021

On April 22 Russia announced that it was sending soldiers back to their bases after exercises along the frontier. This included exercises in Crimea. The return to base shall be completed by May 1. The buildup caused widespread condemnation.There had been an uptick in firing across the ceasefire l...

Exame/Ideia Big Data poll: Presidential succession is polarized between Bolsonaro and Lula, but there is room for a third candidate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2021

​According to three scenarios tested by the Exame/Ideia Big Data poll, the presidential election of 2022 is polarized between President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Lula (PT). It is important to note that the three possible PSDB candidates – Governors João Doria (SP) and Eduardo Leite (RS)...

The CBR has chosen to accelerate rate hikes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2021

The CBR raised the key by 50 bps to 5.0% and explained it by the need to contain inflation expectations, which according to the CBR, remain elevated. The regulator also mentioned that the domestic economy is recovering faster than was anticipated - on the back of strengthening domestic demand to ...

Russia says there is progress on reunification with Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2021

On April 22 Putin announced that there has been headway on the goal of Russia and Belarus reuniting. Lukashenka confirmed this. Lukashenka had been in Moscow for talks.Legilsation shall be forthcoming. Lukashenka said he is about to make the most consequential announcement of his presidency. Oppo...

​GULF WEEKLY: Covid wave eases, JCPOA negotiations progress and Saudi-Iran talks take place
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * US-Iran talks seem to be making good progress after the US clarified sanctions it could lift. * Secret Saudi-Iran talks were mediated by Iraq, focusing on Yemen and Lebanon. * The latest coronavirus wave in the region may...

2021 Budget published, and the STF confirmed Sergio Moro's partiality in Lula's cases in Curitiba
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2021

​As expected, the 2021 Federal Budget was published with vetoes in the Official Gazette today for a total of R$ 19.8 billion. In an agreement with Congress, President Bolsonaro blocked R$ 9.2 billion in funds for some ministries in order to approve expenses beyond the spending ceiling. Yester...

Czech-Russian row intensifies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2021

On April 22 Prague said it shall place a limit on the number of people allowed to work at the Russian Embassy. Russia must reduce staff numbers to the same number of people the Czechs are allowed in the Moscow. The deadline is May 31.Moscow has vowed to respond in the same manner.The Czechs have ...

The President is expected to sanction the budget today, and the Supreme Court to rule on jurisdictions in Lula's cases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2021

​Today is the last day for President Bolsonaro to sanction the 2021 Federal Budget. An agreement was reached with Congress earlier this week to approve some expenses beyond the spending ceiling, such as health expenses and investment programs for the private sector. The Budget is expected to be s...

​It is geo-politics, stupid
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Apr 2021

As I write these lines, dollar/TL had already skyrocketed to 8.28-30, and I’m willing to bet that short of a miracle the parity shall continue to climb through Friday evening. As Cosmo warned our readership in the last Weekly Tracker, Turkish markets are now marching to the drumbeat of political ...

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