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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Covid lockdown is unlikely to be eased before early April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2021

A few days ago, the government cabinet decided to extend the existing Covid lockdown until March 1, i.e., by a full month. This was just as expected, of course. Although the second wave of Covid has retreated substantially in every respect, but it is not at all out of the way yet. Moreover, it wa...

​Budget 2021-22
INDIA · In Brief · 01 Feb 2021

The problem. Most GDP growth and jobs emerge from the willingness of private persons to put equity capital and emotional energy into building private organizations. The most important problem of the Indian economy is the loss of dynamism in private investment from 2011 onwards. In recent years, w...

A more agitated political environment in Brasilia and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Congress and Superior Courts resume activity. In the Senate, the election for the presidency is scheduled for Monday, February 1, at 4pm, and in the House, at 7pm. The truckers’ strike scheduled for this Monday is unlikely to receive much support. Material for the production of the CoronaVac vacc...

GDP contracts by a mere 3.1% in 2020
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP decreased by 3.1% in 2020, which is in line with GKEM Analytica’s expectations. As was mentioned in the previous notes, ongoing regular upward revisions of monthly statistics explain a slightly better outcome relative to what GKEM Analytica expected. On top o...

Economics: Data heightens 2021 economic tasks
MEXICO · Report · 01 Feb 2021

The economic news of the past month showed some signs of an easing of the recessionary panorama as the -3.3% yoy fall in industrial activity for November was one of the least pronounced negative results of 2020 thanks largely to gains in some components of the manufacturing sector. However, the d...

The NBU Monetary Policy Committee: two members voted for a prime rate increase
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Feb 2021

The NBU released the summary of the Monetary Policy Committee discussion on the prime rate decision. As we see from the summary all members of the Committee perfectly recognize that inflation is already above 6% prime rate. However, the majority of the members are treating the inflation tendency ...

GDP contraction in Q420 likely to be modest
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Economic indicators for Q420 have been fairly positive, with strong export growth (especially hi-tech services) and only a moderate decline in private consumption. The shekel stabilized last week as rapid vaccinations (supporting inflows) has been a positive factor offsetting likely BoI intervent...

We calculate an 18% downturn in the economy for 2020 and a rebound of 4.7% for 2021
PANAMA · Forecast · 01 Feb 2021

We calculate a decrease in real economic activity of 18% for 2020. According to our estimations, construction (public and private) and related industries, retail trade, tourism, the Colon Free Zone, international transportation, banking, and energy production accounted for most of the recession. ...

A longer-lasting trade surplus
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Indonesia has enjoyed a number of commodities booms in the past few decades. These range from sugar, to rubber, to oil, with the most recent being the coal and CPO booms. These rapid periods of growth in commodities helped the trade balance and also increased the welfare of the people, which even...

A chance for negotiations in 2021
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

This year may bring mediated talks between Venezuela’s regime and opposition. The United States and European Union both want to push for a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis that leads to competitive elections, making sure the required institutional changes are implemented. Maduro ha...

Special Report - Why did Armenia lose the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Now that the dust has settled on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict the pundits have been able to opine on the reasons for Armenia’s heavy defeat. They have also been able to draw inferences from how the two nations fought and why one emerged so patently on top. The conflict ended with a ceasefire ...

GDP contraction in Q420 likely to be modest
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Jan 2021

Highlights:Economic indicators fairly positive in Q420, but slow in January Hi tech service exports (10% of GDP) increased by 19% in 2020. Despite the third closure, private consumption declined modestly in Q420 with credit card purchases down 1.5% q/q and chain store sales down 2.2%. January wit...

​"Cristinomics" conditions the IMF negotiations
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Jan 2021

The government has always been vague regarding the economic model it has in mind or how it would achieve its goal of simultaneously supporting domestic consumption while remaining a competitive exporter. In short, how can it spur domestic absorption while seeking a balance of payment inflows to f...

Q&A on politics and the economy
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Support for both President Erdogan and the AKP-MHP alliance seem to be declining in the polls, as the epidemic flares up once again, while poverty and unemployment are wreaking havoc across the nation. The base-case scenario is Turkey remaining under restrictions through the second quarter of the...

Iran buying Russian vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2021

On January 30 Iran announced that it will receive Sputnik V doses on February 4. Iran has already approved the vaccine. There will be further shipments later in February. Iran and Russia have had a fairly warm relationship for the last 30 years.Iran has refused to countenance vaccines made in the...

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