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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
A positive outlook for reforms and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2020
Presidential vetoes that could be overturned may be analyzed by Congress. Among them are the vetoes on payroll tax exemptions and civil servants' salaries. The economic team is discussing a trigger system for the spending ceiling with party leaders. In the Senate, we highlight the discussion of t...
Are We in a Pandemic or Las Vegas?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Aug 2020
In 1921, Frank Knight defined the difference between risk and uncertainty. Put succinctly, risk can be measured – a standard deviation above the mean indicates a greater risk – while uncertainty cannot be measured. As will be seen below, the standard deviation of the forecasts for GDP in 2020 (Fo...
Economics: Public spending priorities for 2020 remain the same as before
MEXICO · Report · 17 Aug 2020
As the first full-year budget following the extraordinarily sophomoric exercise of 2019, the 2020 budget and the net public spending as of June offer a much clearer view of the ways in which this government intends to target and implement its resources. The newly released public finance results f...
Underlying (core) inflation remains low, rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Aug 2020
Highlights: July’s CPI surprised slightly on the upside (0.2% m/m, vs. 0.1% expected). Inflation is down 0.6% y/y, and core inflation is down 0.37% y/y. Housing rental (equivalent) prices moderated to 1.4% y/y (from 1.7% last month). The PPI (excluding energy) is down 1.8% y/y...
Belarussian president rocked by protests
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Aug 2020
On August 16 a protest of 70 000 people gathered in Minsk. This is by far the largest demonstration the country has ever seen. This is too big for the police to shut down. A pro-government demonstration also took place but gathered only a few thousand people. Lukashenka said he begged for people ...
Luis Abinader was sworn in as president with an agenda of economic reactivation and fighting the pandemic, corruption and impunity.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 Aug 2020 · 1 response
With an emphasis on addressing the health crisis, the economic reactivation and the fight against corruption, Luis Abinader Corona was sworn in today as the 67th president of the Dominican Republic. He offers unlimited dialogue and work to promote the urgent changes to get out of the current cris...
Underlying (core) inflation remains low, rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2020
Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 17.8.20July’s CPI surprised slightly on the upside (0.2% m/m, vs. exp. 0.1%)Inflation is down 0.6% y/y and core inflation is down 0.37% y/y.Housing rental (equivalent) prices moderated to 1.4% y/y (from 1.7% last month).The PPI (excluding energy) is down ...
Belarus releases Russian mercenaries in a bid to curry favor with Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2020
On August 15 Lukashenka ordered 32 Russian Wagner mercenaries to be set free. The men were arrested in July for allegedly trying to overthrow the president. The opposition suspected it was an electoral stunt and that is what it has proved to be. Ukraine has complained about the release of the Wag...
EU imposes sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2020
On August 14 the EU announced 'smart' sanctions on Belarus. The sanctions will target Lukashenka, some organizations and some top officials. The list has not yet been drawn up. This is to penalize the government for their large scale electoral fraud. All EU members agreed to the sanctions in prin...
Emergency aid program boosts Bolsonaro’s popularity
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2020
The new Datafolha poll, published today, shows that the R$ 600 emergency aid program, paid by the government to informal workers who were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, is boosting President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity. According to the poll, the government’s positive ratings (great/goo...
GULF WEEKLY: UAE-Israel normalization, Aramco dividend, Oman loan, Bahrain downgrade
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Aug 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The UAE normalized relations with Israel, linking this to a suspension of annexation plans. ● Oil had a flat week as the IEA and OPEC both reduced their demand expectations....
July’s CPI came in slightly above expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2020
July’s CPI reached 0.2% m/m (-0.6% y/y, following -1.1% in June), slightly above expectations of 0.1% m/m. There were no real inflation surprises in July. Petrol prices increased by 4.3%. Domestic vacation costs increased seasonally by 5.8%, while apparel prices declined by 5.9%. Housing rental (...
South Africa finally moves to recover looted public funds – at least some of it
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Aug 2020
At the beginning of the month, Eskom – South Africa’s embattled state utility that provides over 90% of the country’s electricity, alongside the state’s Special Investigating Unit (SIU), started legal proceedings against those implicated in corruption that saw the utility losing billions through ...
Inefficient Stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Aug 2020
China has switched from SME to infrastructure-led stimulus. This will lead to greater pressure on both bank and private capital, along with a “crowding out” of investment in more profitable parts of the economy. This is also less efficient state-driven investment. However, it has been the capital...
GDP fell by more than expected in Q2, but our latest 2020 forecast is still standing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2020
According to preliminary data, GDP fell by 13.5% yoy on sda basis in Q2. The MNB expected -7%, the Finance Ministry predicted -9.9%, the analyst consensus was -10.5 and -10.7% in two different polls, and our forecast, published in July, was -12%. A week ago, Eurostat estimated Euro Area Q2 GDP gr...