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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Pentagon’s F-35 decision: New era for Turko-American relations?
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2020

Pentagon announced on Tuesday that deliveries ofF-35 parts from Turkey will continue through 2022.Local press also expressed views that after the sacking of DA Geoffrey Berman, the ongoing Halkbank trial will be postponed to February 2021, as Judge Richard Berman is also considering a plea by Hal...

Abinader headed for a presidential victory
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 01 Jul 2020

Three recent surveys with the best track records in predicting electoral results have projected that Luís Abinader (PRM and allies) will win the July 5th presidential election, by a wide margin over Gonzalo Castillo (PLD and allies). On average, they estimate 52% of voting intentions for Abinader...

Bolsonaro unhappy with approval of the bill to fight fake news
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2020

While speaking to supporters today in front of the Alvorada Palace, President Jair Bolsonaro expressed his opposition to the approval yesterday of the bill against fake news in the Senate by stating, "The proposal should not seek to avenge." Bolsonaro stated that if the proposal also passes in th...

The Head of the NBU submitted a resignation letter
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jul 2020

The Head of the NBU, Yakiv Smoliy, submitted a resignation letter to the President of Ukraine, according to the NBU web-site. Political pressure on the NBU impedes effective functioning of the Central bank stated at the press-release. Attempts of the NBU Council to block re-appointment of Oleg Ch...

Minfin's 3Q20 borrowing plan remains ambitious
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The Russian Finance Ministry announced its borrowing plan for 3Q20, which assumes the issuance of OFZ worth of R1 trln. This figure can help to estimate the aggregate amount of the placements for FY’20 as traditionally, the government targets a rather even quarterly allocation of borrowing during...

The country is open to tourism
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Jul 2020

As of July 1, the Dominican Republic is open to tourism. The government has authorized the reopening of passenger flights without discrimination as to origin, and the reopening of all hotels and restaurants, which are obliged to operate under strict sanitary protocols. Despite that, the sector's ...

China virus check – week ending June 29
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Jul 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Coal had a positive bias for the week. 2) Iron ore blast furnace operating rates trended upward but remain below year-earlier levels. 3) Traffic congestion fell slightly W/W but is above year-ago ...

Weathering a rather easy coronavirus crisis
UKRAINE · Forecast · 01 Jul 2020

The first phase of the COVID-19 crisis was soft for Ukraine. The global lockdown did the job currency shocks used to do for the country in the past. As a result, imports have fallen much faster than exports, as supply chains broke and energy prices fell. This translated into an impressive balance...

Unemployment and Decotelli´s resignation put more strain on the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2020

Data released today by the National Continuous Monthly Household Survey (PNAD Continuous) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) shows that the unemployment rate rose to 12.9% in the three-month period ending in May, reaching 12.7 million people. According to the survey, in...

Covid-19 extends South Africa’s H2-2019 technical recession into the first quarter of 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Jun 2020

Real GDP growth declined by 2% in the first quarter of 2020 on a quarter-on-quarter basis. This follows contractions of 0.8% q/q and 1.4% q/q, respectively, during the third and fourth quarters of 2019. Consequently, the technical recession that South Africa entered into during the last half of 2...

SAUDI: Private-sector GDP down about -10% m/m in March
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jun 2020 · 1 response

On June 30, Saudi Arabia was the first Gulf state to publish Q1 real GDP data (GAS). The headline figure is a -1.0% y/y contraction (-4.6% oil, +1.6% non-oil), compared with -0.3% y/y in Q4, or a seasonally adjusted contraction of -0.4% q/q. On the surface, this may seem like a much smaller impac...

The MNB is reducing liquidity through moderate withdrawals of FX swaps
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jun 2020

The stock of the MNB's 'fine-tuning' FX swaps essentially did not move between end-April and early last week: the outstanding stock decreased just marginally, from HUF 1929bn to HUF 1922bn in this period. But then, on June 22's tender, the stock was reduced to HUF 1884bn and on June 29, it was cu...

Russia to allow e visas to boost tourism
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jun 2020

On June 29 Russian Parliament approved a law allowing people from 53 countries to obtain a tourist visa online. The scheme takes effect on January 1 2021. Current tourist visas are expensive and time consuming to obtain. The e-visa will only be valid to visit Moscow, St Petersburg and part of the...

Minister of Education´s inauguration postponed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jun 2020

The Ministry of Education continues to cause problems for President Jair Bolsonaro. Carlos Alberto Decotelli, appointed to the position last week, had his inauguration ceremony – scheduled for tomorrow, June 30 – postponed after revelations of inconsistencies in his resume. At the Planalto Palace...

​Indonesia: Maintaining the social fabric during the pandemic
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Jun 2020

Covid-19 has hit not only​ the health of the people, but also their welfare. Particularly in Indonesia, where the informal economy remains large, the implementation of restrictions on people's mobility in various areas resulted in a significant hit to their income. With the prospect of their inco...

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