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Hungary sold EUR 2bn of 6 and 12-year bonds yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

Well, it did not take too much time for the government to adjust its 2020 financing plan to the new situation and to start the implementation of the amended financing plan right away.The amended government budget, which raised the deficit target for this year from 1% to 2.7% of GDP, has identifie...

President Duterte extends ECQ in key regions
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

President Rodrigo Duterte today announced the extension until May 15 of Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) in key parts of Luzon island deemed “high-risk”, including the three top contributors to GDP, Metro Manila (36%), Calabarzon (17%) and Central Luzon (9.8%). He also decided to transition se...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Russia's response to the crisis: a mix of easing and tightening
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Apr 2020

In the webinar, Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin provided insight into Russia's ability to weather the dual impact of the coronavirus lockdown and the oil crisis on its economy and external accounts

Last french fries factory in Russia shut temporarily
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

On April 24 the only French fries factory in Russia closed for the time being. Belaya Dacha Factory opened in 2018 in Lipestk. 100 000 tons of French fries were produced there in 2019. Fast food joints no longer had to import fries. Fast food restaurants have stopped operating.Belaya Dacha has 20...

Dispute over the direction of the economy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2020

The announcement of the Pró-Brasil program – public investment measures to increase job creation and economic growth with a focus on infrastructure – evinced a dispute in the Jair Bolsonaro government over the direction of the economy in the post-pandemic period. Practically at the same time that...

The NBU slashes prime rate down to 8%, anticipates better CAD amid COVID-19 crisis
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2020

The NBU Board slashed prime rate by 200 basis points down to 8% today. Low inflation (+2.3% y/y in March), no dramatic impact of COVID-19 crisis on external accounts so far, stabilized hryvnia and falling prices for hydrocarbons are behind this decision. That strong a cut was not expected, to be ...

Government intensifies political articulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2020

Negotiations are underway with the aim of easing relations between the Planalto Palace and the National Congress. Alongside the military wing’s actions to mend the relationship between Jair Bolsonaro and Rodrigo Maia, the president of the Republic will also meet with the Mayor of Salvador, ACM Ne...

Mikheil Saakashvili is back
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2020

Mikheil Saakashvili will be appointed Vice-Prime Minister coordinating reforms, according to his Facebook page. Recall Saakashvili entered Ukrainian politics after the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. Ex-president Petro Poroshenko named him ‘an old friend’ and in 2015 appointed Saakashvili governor...

GCC fiscal deficit could reach $250bn in 2020 with a 16% drop in non-oil output
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 22 Apr 2020 · 1 response

Recent forecasts of the impact of COVID-19 have looked optimistic. We have built a model to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on the GCC states in different scenarios. In our baseline, we assume a 23% drop in non-oil output for 6 months and an oil price of $30 on average in 2020-21. In this scenari...

Russia: Pandemic update
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020

Economy taking a hitRosstat reported that industrial output was up by a mere 0.3% y-o-y in March, which brought the 1Q20 y-o-y growth figure to just 1.5%. Seasonally adjusted March figure was 1.3% down m-o-m. Mining y-o-y was flat in 1Q20 and down by 1.3% in March, while manufacturing growth in M...

South Africa’s bold R500 billion Covid-19 relief package announced on Day 25 of the nationwide lockdown
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Apr 2020

In a previous report we highlighted the fact that, although South African government coffers are in a precarious state, the government still had to find ways to mobilize funds for tackling the Covid-19 pandemic’s catastrophic health, social and economic impact. The government has found a way to d...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2020

▪ Coronavirus has hit all countries in the region. The oil exporting ones are suffering most heavily, with several percentage points likely to be wiped off GDP. ▪ Belarus is carrying on as though Covid-19 is no threat despite admitting to some cases. ▪ The end of the OPEC+ oil deal caused econo...

Mamma Mia!
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee has cut the policy rate (weekly repo) by another 100 bps today to 8.75% (simple), which is more than our, as well as the consensus forecasts of around 50 bps reduction (see chart). To be honest, we stopped being surprised by our central bank’s actions to a great exte...

Russian oil company Tatneft may have to delay dividend payout
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020

Tatneft has dropped its plan to buy out shareholders. On April 22 the board of Tatneft advised cancelling its planned payout of fourth quarter dividend that was due in June. The company is desperate to keep money in its accounts so it can get through this downturn. Tatneft is the 5th biggest oil ...

USA sends ambassador to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

On April 20 Trump nominated the first US ambassador to Belarus in 12 years. There has been a thaw in US-Belarussian relations. Julie Fisher is being sent to Minsk. Ms. Fisher is a career diplomat, not a political appointee. She has served in other former USSR countries and speaks fluent Russian. ...

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