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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Generalized decline and confrontation
MEXICO · Report · 25 May 2020

The government continues to apply austerity measures instead of any minimally credible plan for mitigating the economic crisis, much less preparing conditions for an eventual recovery. There is no solution in sight for mounting public finance problems, and the president’s insistence that he will ...

A Risk Not Yet on the Market’s Radar Screens
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 May 2020 · 3 responses

Because of the deep recession, some policymakers have proposed that the increase in public spending should not be restricted to the authorization obtained from the approval of the “wartime budget”. This is not the stance of Economic Minister Guedes, but this cannot be said about the influential v...

The long end of the curve appears well anchored on BoI purchases
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 May 2020

Highlights of the weekly macro Wrap Up 26.5.20 The economy continues to return gradually to full activity Credit card purchases increased by 80% from April 19th to May 18th. Purchases in mid-May are still down 12% YTD. Output of electricity in the first two weeks of May is down 9.9% y/y compare t...

Russian RUB hit 10-week high, with demand for bonds up
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2020

On May 21 RUB reached its highest level in 10 weeks. The RUB touched 70 to the USD. This is 12% higher than the doldrums of March.The feel good factor is returning. People are willing to take a few risks again. Oil prices have risen a little. EU countries are relaxing lockdown. Demand for oil is ...

Moving toward pre-pandemic levels
CHINA · Report · 25 May 2020

China began its annual “two sessions” on May 21st. Although for the first time the government did not set an annual growth target -- possibly due to so much COVID-19 uncertainty ahead -- we expect the implicit growth target is 1.8% for now, given the projected deficit and inflation numbers. Th...

Putin authorized postal and internet voting
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2020

On May 23 Putin signed a law allowing voting by mail and interent. He is keen to hold a referendum to amend the constitution so that he can serve two more terms as president. The referendum was schedule for April 22 but had to be delayed sine die. The postal voting law has already passed Parliame...

Fighting COVID by polarizing voters?
TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2020 · 1 response

Turkey is achieving steady but slow progress against the COVID-19 infestation. The virus is not under control, but a ceasefire seems to have been established, so much so that most of the social restrictions and shelter-at-home periods will be ended by end-June. Medical authorities anticipate clus...

Russia sticking to fiscal discipline
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 May 2020

On May 21 Finance Minister Siluanov stated that he will not relax the fiscal rule. The rule states that oil revenues over USD 42 p b are put into the National Welfare Fund (NWF). When oil prices are below USD 42 p b the NWF makes up the shortfall in the budget. Many have urged the government to a...

Bolsonaro Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2020

The video does not strengthen impeachment. The release of the April 22 cabinet meeting is not the oft-discussed “silver bullet” for Pres. Jair Bolsonaro, though it could lead to inconvenient consequences. For now, the accusations leveled by former Minister of Justice Sergio Moro of crimes comm...

Excerpts from the cabinet meeting video released so far reinforce Bolsonaro’s narrative
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2020

​The Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Celso de Mello, released practically the entire video of the ministerial cabinet meeting that took place on April 22, pointed out by former minister Sergio Moro as proof that President Jair Bolsonaro tried to intervene politically in the Federal P...

GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi issues at much lower yields, lockdowns intensify for Eid
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 May 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Coronavirus growth decelerated regionally but worries about spread due to the Eid al-Fitr holiday led to an intensification of lockdo...

An island of stability — but for how long?
UKRAINE · Report · 22 May 2020

Ukraine is going through something quite unusual: its economy remains an island of stability, in the midst of the global COVID-19 storm. Most likely the big blow is still ahead. However, right now the balance of trade is improving, on the back of strong demand for food exports, the currency is st...

Beijing abandons a 2020 GDP growth target
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 May 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Li Keqiang announced that Beijing would not set a GDP growth target for 2020. • If this represents a real change in economic policy-making going forward, this would be a good sign that Beijing is ready to let go of a development policy that condemns ...

Moral hazard and the mysterious “keepwell” agreements
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 May 2020

The two dominant themes of Chinese economic policy over the past several years have been the growing use of private capital for state ends, and more recently, a reluctance to engage in a large-scale “Chinese QE.” Concerns about excess state debt have been imprinted on Xi Jinping by economic head ...

South Africa webinar featuring Iraj Abedian: Socio-economic preconditions and the Covid-19 crisis
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 May 2020

Iraj Abedian examines South Africa’s ability to cope with the coronavirus crisis based on its current macro and fiscal situation.

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