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The central bank’s statistical shock
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 May 2019

The BCV published an extensive set of macroeconomic data on May 28, 2019, after 40 months of pause. The collapse of economic activity and hyperinflation thus become a fact officially accepted by the government. The explanation of BCV’s action is elusive. According to some media, it reflects Ch...

Recession over -- for now
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2019

Broadly in line with expectations, the Turkish economy contracted by 2.6% annually, but expanded by some 1.3% sequentially in the first quarter. While the latter figure is somewhat stronger than our expectation, this is a technicality of sorts that stems from the difficulty of replicating Turksta...

​Indonesia: The ball is in the Constitutional Court
INDONESIA · Report · 31 May 2019

The Indonesian election, which was held on April 17, 2019, has reached a more advanced stage. The formal outcome of the election was announced ahead of schedule, on May 21, 2019, by the Election Commission, with the incumbent, Joko Widodo, winning by a significant margin of 10%. However, the chal...

Political uncertainty could rattle fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · Report · 31 May 2019

Israel will be going to the polls again on September 17, 2019, five months after the most recent elections. Netanyahu was not able to form a coalition with Lieberman ("Yisrael Beiteinu") due to a disagreement over the mandatory army service law, forcing the ultra-orthodox to serve gradually. Lieb...

Pro-Russian party trying to reunite itself in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2019

The Opposition Block (OB) in the Ukraine is trying to reunite. Opposition Platform split from OB in 2018. If Opposition Platform rejoins OB then it will be much more formidable. The precursor to the Opposition Block was the Party of the Regions which was led by Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych was t...

The new economic team is (almost) in place…facing a tight fiscal situation and a slow real activity
PANAMA · Report · 30 May 2019

Héctor Alexander, former Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF) from 2007-2009, and University of Chicago graduate, will be in charge again of this office, presumably until January when the MEF might split into two separate entities: MEF itself will likely transform into the Ministry of Treasury (...

Foreign holdings of Russian sovereign debt up
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2019 · 1 response

The Ministry of Finance announced that foreign holdings of debt are sharply up in 2019. The total is over USD 50 billion in RUB and FX denominations. The risk of US sanctions has been reduced. The government is keen to make the most of this positive feeling. It is speculated that a new Eurobond w...

President Ramaphosa's Cabinet - At Last! Almost a clean break from the Zuma Era.
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 May 2019

President Ramaphosa finally managed to announce his cabinet ministers after a few days of delays, and even this evening a further 50 minutes delay from the announced 20h30 media briefing - all indicating the rough and hard path that Ramaphosa has had to tread to get here. It is common knowledge t...

South Africa's conference call - Post-election politics: "Last chance for the ANC?"
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 May 2019

Last chance for the ANC? How will the ANC’s reduced majority impact the reform process going forward? Is the new cabinet ideal for the revival of South Africa’s economy? Did Ramaphosa win the mandate he needs to propel the moral revival of the ANC and the country? Where to from here for the SA e...

Congress betting on the wear and tear of Bolsonaro's image and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2019

The Senate is likely to vote on PM 870, which deals with the organization of the Executive branch, and the bill on regulatory agencies. The Pension Reform Special Committee will finalize the period of public hearings. The rapporteur, Samuel Moreira (PSDB-MG), should present his report in the firs...

President Ramaphosa's Cabinet: Cleansing and Reviving the ANC- It is complicated!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 28 May 2019

President Ramaphosa have been forced to delay his cabinet appointments and announcement for third time in a row. Not something that he can fully control, and it is all driven by the internal "cleansing processes of the ANC". As part of the ANC's moral revival strategy that Ramaphosa has been cham...

Today's Monetary Council: No measure this time either, just as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 May 2019

The Monetary Council's regular monthly rate-setting meeting today has brought about to no policy change at all, just as expected. Logically so: given the MNB did not tighten policy in any material way between September 2018 and April this year, when adjusted core inflation was rising, why would h...

Expansionary monetary policy likely to continue this year
ISRAEL · Report · 28 May 2019

Highlights: Policy rates remained stable last week, for the following reasons: - Inflation is still hovering slightly above 1%, not moving higher. - The shekel has appreciated by 6% YTD, 1.2% since the last rate decision. - Global downside risks have increased with the trad...

Good news for Russian bank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 May 2019

At a meeting of VEB.RF the bank decided that this state corporation can take out loans and have them guaranteed by the government. VEB has various investments in mind. National projects have been hard to fund due to limited access to international financial markets.It looks like US sanctions will...

The pension reform war and other battles
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 May 2019

The approval of a robust reform of the social security system is crucial to set the stage for renewed economic expansion. Measured by the insignificant growth of per capita income, the Brazilian economy is nearly in a depression, and faster growth depends on investments revival, something that wi...

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