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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: FDI data more troubling than it looks
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2019

Foreign Direct Investment for the first quarter may have come in 66% above levels of the fourth quarter of 2018 thanks in large part to highly favorable seasonality, but compared to a year prior, it fell to its second lowest level for any January-March period in six years, a performance more in l...

Politics: IMSS head quits, dysfunction grows
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2019

Last week’s decision by the head of the Mexican Social Security Institute to step down was the first cabinet level defection to date in this administration. It also provided the first open statement from within the government of discontent with many ways in which this administration is attempting...

A fork in the road
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 27 May 2019

Going into the second half of the Duterte administration, poll results suggest exceptional executive influence over the legislature that opens up a window which many hope would lead to initiatives that would advance the economic reform agenda, including ramping up the sovereign credit rating to g...

European elections: one piece of good news and two pieces of bad news for Mr. Orbán
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 May 2019

At first glance, PM Orbán came very well out of the European Parliament elections held at the weekend. His Fidesz-KDNP coalition won 52.4% of the Hungarian vote, which is a better result than the 47.4% they collected at the latest parliamentary election in March 2018. By this popular vote, Fidesz...

Kolomoyskiy talks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 May 2019

Ihor Kolomoyskiy advised Zelenskiy to default on external debts. A cheeky and provocative advice. Kolomoyskiy gave many other interviews throwing to the pubic verity of quite controversial messages. Many of those statements go in contrast to what Zelenskiy himself or his advisors claim. What is g...

Between a rock and a hard place
TURKEY · Report · 26 May 2019 · 1 response

The politics section opens with a summary of the US-Iran tensions and the flare up in Idlib to put Turkey’s regional dilemmas in context. The ever-changing features of the Middle East kaleidoscope will likely force President Erdogan to change policy and make sacrifices eventually, but that discus...

Billionaire backer of Zelenskiy advocates Ukrainian debt default
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 May 2019

Ihor Kolomoisky is the financial backer of the Ukrainian President. Kolomoisky gave an interview to the Financial Times. He advocated Ukraine defaulting on foreign debt - akin to Argentina.He also says he wants PrivatBank back - which he used to own. Kolomoisky divides his time between Israel and...

Russian independent oil refinery for sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 May 2019

On May 21 Antipinsky oil refinery declared bankruptcy. This is one of the main refineries in the Tyumen Region. Sberbank owns 80% of the refinery since Antipinsky owes money to Sberbank. SOCAR (State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic) is considering buying the refinery. The remaining 20% is ...

Zelenskiy appoints a new presidential administration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2019

On May 20 Zelenskiy was inaugurated as president. There was much concern over who he would appoint to the cabinet since he is a political ingenue.Two people from Kvartal 95 (Zelenskiy's TV production company) have been appointed to the presidential administration. Andriy Bohdan was head of the pr...

A change in Chinese demand for American soy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 May 2019 · 1 response

As a follow up to my newsletter, it occurred to me that there may indeed be a change in Chinese demand for American soy over the next two years, but not because of trade sanctions. As everyone knows by now, China is suffering from a tremendous pork shortage thanks to the ravages of swine flu. A l...

What follows the remarkable election outcome
INDIA · Report · 24 May 2019

Narendra Modi has scored a historic win. It is hard to recall a moment in Indian history when the outcome of an election has been so decisive. India is now in that rare situation, of a leadership endowed with electoral legitimacy, that has a five-year horizon. Last time, in 2014, the BJP launc...

Kocharyan’s trial sparks political crisis in Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2019

On May 18, former President Robert Kocharyan was surprisingly released on bail after spending 5 months in prison on pre-trial. The decision was completely unexpected because only five days before – the day the trial started - Kocharyan based his defence on the lack of legitimacy of the court, as ...

The South African Reserve Bank remains dovish following the country’s general elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 May 2019

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has once again decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.75%, leaving the prime rate at 10.25%. The last time the Reserve Bank adjusted the repo rate was in November 2018 when it increased it from 6.50% to the current 6.75%, making th...

Trade war hurting everyone
CHINA · Report · 23 May 2019

Almost all major economic indicators are falling. Industrial output was up 5.4% y/y, back to its low January-February level, after its March rise. Fixed asset investment was up 5.7% y/y in April, down 0.6 pps from Q1. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.2% y/y in nominal terms, ...

The ANC’s self-cleansing? The promised renewal, or more complex plots?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 May 2019

The first sitting of the National Assembly took place on 22 May 2019 in Cape Town. This marks South Africa’s sixth democratic Parliament with 358 members officially sworn in by Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng. The ruling party ANC (African National Congress) acquired 230 seats while the main opposi...

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