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Hysterics
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 May 2019

We wrote that the Ukrainian establishment is disoriented. We were wrong. Alena Shkrum, MP from Batkivshchyna party wrote that parliament is in hysterics. Whatever is the format of elections – majoritarian vote or the party lists – Zelenskiy takes the majority. Collecting 226 seats through the par...

How China can and cannot retaliate on trade
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 23 May 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The mood changed dramatically in China last week, with Beijing now angrily criticizing Washington for its role in the trade negotiations. * Beijing’s change of strategy should be seen primarily within a domestic political context. President X...

Capital flows and China’s RMB policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 May 2019

The RMB is supported by Chinese capital “round-tripping” Inward capital flows have been encouraged by Beijing through a variety of policies. These inward flows have helped to support the strength of the RMB. However, our studies suggest the majority of this capital is, in fact, institutional C...

Electoral law update failed today
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 May 2019

Parliament rejected to approve amendments to electoral law Volodymyr Zelenskiy proposed (proportional list instead of majoritarian vote and reduction of entry barrier down to 3% from 5% currently). The initiative was not even included to the agenda. Today it was time for Speaker of the parliament...

Recent troubles and downgrades
INDIA · In Brief · 22 May 2019

In previous reports, we have been watching the distance-to-default (DtD) of large private financial firms. Using data for 10 May, we had found that there were 3 large private banks (Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank, Yes Bank) and 6 large private NBFCs (Shriram Transport Finance, Edelweiss Financial,...

Kolomoyskiy lawyer appointed head of president office
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 May 2019 · 1 response

Andrey Bohdan, lawyer of Ihor Kolomoyskiy was appointed head of the president office. Mixed feelings about this decision. Definitely a bad signal for the IMF in the context of Privatbank issues. However, personally, I had a positive impression from his interview he gave to journalists after first...

Electoral law set to be changed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 May 2019 · 1 response

Events are developing extremely fast. After consultations with Volodymyr Zelenskiy leaders of parliamentary factions reported today that early parliamentary elections will be on July 21. On the top of that MPs reported about an agreement to change election law and to cancel majoritarian votes. In...

Economics: Ineffective strategies to rescue Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2019

Since international ratings agencies began downgrading Pemex debt late last year, the government has appeared to be flaying about in its efforts to placate critics, piling errors on top of contradictions and leaving the oil company even more vulnerable and devoid of prospects for improving condit...

Politics: Implications of the new labor reform
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2019

The Mexican Congress passed a broad reform of the country’s labor laws a month ago, perhaps the most significant institutional change introduced in the less than six months the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been in office. The reform undoubtedly brings positive chang...

A tragic week for the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2019 · 1 response

This is a crucial week for the government in the Lower House, with nine provisional measures on the agenda that risk expiring if they are not voted upon, including the regulatory framework for sanitation (PM 868/18) and the reorganization of the Executive branch (PM 870/19). The government releas...

COSTA RICA: Unemployment with stability
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 20 May 2019

In Costa Rica, President Carlos Alvarado stated in his first “state of the country” address on May 2nd that the country had been on the brink of a fiscal crisis in H2 2018, but that timely decisions by the executive branch and Congress -- in particular, passage of a fiscal reform law -- had put C...

Russian GDP growth down to 0.55 in Q1
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2019

Figures released on May 17 show Russia's economic growth reveals only 0.5% yoy growth in the first quarter of 2019. This is worse than the Ministry of Economic Development's anticipated 0.8%. By contrast Bloomberg said a survey of economists had predicted 1.2% growth.This is a dramatic slowdown f...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2019

* A very mixed month for Russia with short-term good news on oil prices and other sectors of the economy. National projects and economic growth continue to move at a snail’s pace. * The situation in Venezuela and Libya is very uncertain for Russia with Russia gambling heavily on its favored l...

Prime minister Groysman resigns
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 May 2019

Volodymyr Zelenskiy during his inauguration speech was very harsh and critical on the work of the Cabinet of Volodymyr Groysman. It did not take long for Groysman to make a decision. He has just announced his intention to resign. He will be acting Prime minister till new Cabinet is appointed. But...

Rate stability expected today on global risks, soft inflation and strong shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 20 May 2019

Highlights: GDP growth reached 5.2% saar in Q1 2019. * Excluding import taxes, GDP growth was 3.7%, following 3.0% in Q4 2018. * PC growth reached 7.6%, exports: 6.2% and investments: 10%. Inflation surprised on the downside in April (0.3%), slowing to 1.3% y/y (from 1.4% in March)...

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