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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Next quarters, certain stagflation; afterwards, uncertain recovery
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 23 Jul 2018

In retrospect, immediately after the release of our last quarterly forecast on April 20, the Argentine economy suffered a severe sudden stop in the flow of foreign capital, particularly from the beginning of May. As a consequence, the foreign exchange rate jumped from about 20 to approximately 28...

Weak Yuan compensating for potential trade war losses
CHINA · Report · 23 Jul 2018

GDP was up 6.8% y/y in H1, the same rate as in H2 2017. Industrial output was up 6.7% y/y, up 0.4 pps from H2 2017. Fixed asset investment was up 6% y/y in H1, down 2.6 pps from H1 2017, and up only 0.3% y/y in real terms, down 3.5 pps from last H1. The major drop of state investment is likel...

State of the Nation Address 2018
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2018

As promised, President Rodrigo Duterte kept to his prepared speech in his third annual report to congress this afternoon. Since members of his cabinet had in past weeks presented “Pre-SONA” reports on the Duterte Administration’s Year 2 achievements, the President concentrated on outlining his ad...

The factors that contributed to higher inflation are expected to moderate
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Jul 2018

The labor market remains tight, but recent data point to a modest decline for new workers. We think inflation expectations in the bond market are skewed to the upside, providing some value in Shachar bonds. Zoom In: The two main factors (housing and food) that supported higher core inflation ...

Inflation: Nothing wrong with the Central Bank’s conduct
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jul 2018

When coincidentally with the truckers' strike we witnessed a more pronounced depreciation of the real and a steeper slope of the yield curve (including the short end, rates up to 1 year), there was no shortage of cries for an increase of the SELIC rate. If the Central Bank had done that, it would...

​Albayrak talks the talk, but….
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jul 2018

Our rookie economy impresario Mr. Berat Albayrak can really talk the talk, but can he walk the walk?On his way back from Argentina where he attended the G-20 summit Albayrak had a long chat with journalists, a brief summary of which can be found in the link. He is quoted as: “Albayrak, who is in ...

​Fiscal excesses, monetary uncertainties
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Jul 2018

We take a quick look at last week’s June budget data and preview the upcoming MPC meeting. Recall that we put our Weekly Update on holiday, and will issue a political update on Monday.June BudgetThe Central Government budget ran a TL25.6 billion overall, and TL23.2 billion primary deficit in June...

Revelation of massive corruption in the Judiciary
PERU · In Brief · 20 Jul 2018

The ongoing revelations of widespread corruption within Peru's justice system has ushered a major political crisis that has produced wide popular anger, and is likely to result in a major shake up within three key institutions: The Judiciary, the Attorney General’s office, and the National Counci...

The South African Reserve Bank keeps the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Jul 2018

The Reserve Bank today decided to leave the country’s benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, which means the prime interest rate also remains at 10%. Yesterday we reported that CPI inflation accelerated from 4.4% y/y in May 2018 to 4.6% y/y in June largely due to inflationary pressures fr...

Will fading Ramaphoria compromise South Africa’s growth recovery?
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Jul 2018

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: Real GDP contracted markedly in the first quarter of 2018 following a surprise 3.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2017 and GDP growth above 2% for three consecutive quarters (since quarter 2 2017). Although there was a marked improvement in th...

Full Employment Declines in Q2
ECUADOR · In Brief · 18 Jul 2018

President Moreno will be sending his veto to the recently approved economic law today. In the meanwhile, INEC published the latest employment information that shows a decline in the quality and number of jobs between Q2 2017 and Q2 2018.In fact, 161,689 full-time jobs (adequate employment) were l...

The forint is to stay weak on a sustained basis
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jul 2018

The temporarily but substantially depreciating trend of the forint, which started in May, collapsed spontaneously in early July, without the MNB doing anything material to stabilize the currency, except for stopping its usual market interventions against the HUF for several weeks. The key takeawa...

Issuance of Global Bonds for USD 1.3 bn reveals a drastic change in financing strategy
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Jul 2018 · 1 response

Last week the Dominican Republic placed bonds with 10 years to maturity in the international market for USD 1.3 bn at 6%. It was a surprise because that issuance put the total amount placed in the year at USD 3.122 bn, USD 1.022 bn above the indicative ceiling set forth in the budget law of 2018 ...

Economics: Economic challenges for the new administration
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jul 2018

International conditions could affect the viability of the economic program that Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government hopes to begin implementing as soon as it takes office December 1, especially considering the extent to which the last two presidential administrations have indebted the count...

Politics: Presidencialismo à la AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jul 2018

It may be too soon to fully grasp the dimensions of how profoundly the sweeping electoral victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his coalition will transform the political life of Mexico, but we can be sure it will bring major changes in the way power is wielded and the manner in which the p...

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