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China and the Dominican Republic establish formal diplomatic relations
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 May 2018

Last Sunday, the Dominican Republic and the People's Republic of China announced the establishment of formal diplomatic relations. This implies the recognition of the Dominican Republic that there is only one China and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of its territory. For this reason, the rupt...

Irony and contradiction in current politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 May 2018

Less than 30 days before the first round of the presidential election, some apparent contradictions could cloud our judgement of current Colombian politics. First, Vargas-Lleras seems to be destined to attracting less than 10% of likely voters, in spite of having close to 40% of professional poli...

Three themes that make us reconsider our economic expectations for 2018
PANAMA · Report · 01 May 2018

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) expanded at a low rate of 3.1% y/y in February and 3.9% YTD confirming the predictions of business people of a worse year than 2017, when the economy grew at 5.4%. Still, international analysts and rating agencies predict a better year in 2018. The ma...

Renewed Rupiah volatility
INDONESIA · Report · 01 May 2018

The Indonesian economy is currently facing a new challenge of “monetary uncertainty”. Part of the reflection of this uncertainty is the renewed volatility in the exchange rate of the rupiah. Having achieved a certain level of stability for the past few years, the Indonesian economy once again ...

Articulation of the Center and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2018

It is a busy week, despite tomorrow’s May 1 Labor Day holiday. In Curitiba, trade unions and left-wing organizations defend former President Lula (PT). Pre-candidates for the presidency participate in an agricultural fair in São Paulo. The Supreme Court is expected to complete the trial on the pr...

The CA surplus is slowly declining on the larger trade deficit
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Apr 2018

Recent indicators point to deceleration of domestic demand, although imports are expanding rapidly (most likely e-commerce as well). Despite some growth in exports, the trade deficit is widening, and the CA surplus appears less shekel supportive. Zoom in: The weakening of the shekel in Q118 w...

Further bad news on Hungary and the EU
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2018

Over the past week, the following pieces of bad news hit the screens regarding the relations between Hungary and the EU:1. In the middle of last week, the European Parliament's internal affairs committee (LIBE) held a debate of the committee's draft report on the state of affairs in Hungary, on w...

On the CBRT's Inflation Report
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2018

The CBRT has released this year's second Inflation Report today. Here are some highlights:The 2018 year-end inflation forecast was revised up by 0.5 percentage point to 8.4% (midpoint of a range between 7.2% and 9.6%) from 7.9% previously, while the 2019 year-end forecast was kept at 6.5% (midpoi...

Deceleration of growth and political uncertainty
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The real interest rates (both the current SELIC and 12-month ahead) are below the neutral level, but the Brazilian economy has still only been recovering fitfully. There are no inflationary risks on the horizon, and the main reason is this slow recovery of economic activity. With a high degree of...

Economics: A new round of mixed indicators in April
MEXICO · Report · 30 Apr 2018

Economic news this past month portrayed an economy in which some segments continue to struggle to sustain or regain growth even as more general indicators outperform expectations. A case in point was last week’s Global Economic Activity Index or IGAE, which showed the Mexican economy cruising alo...

Politics: How the post-debate plays out
MEXICO · Report · 30 Apr 2018

In the first of this year’s presidential candidates’ debates last week Andrés Manuel López Obrador entered as the undisputed frontrunner and unsurprisingly became the target of roughly 70% of all questions and political jabs during the fray. To the extent that he had any clear strategy for the de...

Worrying signs: The weakness of the labor market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

When we revised our projection for GDP growth in 2018 to 2.2%, we assumed that expansion of household consumption, although less intensely, would lead to that result, and stressed that the performance of the job market was fundamental for that projection. The most recent data, however, trigger a ...

Exit from the integrated world may be costly
CHINA · Report · 30 Apr 2018

Chinese economic growth was stable in Q1. GDP was up 6.8% y/y, flat on Q4. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y, and up 0.6 pps from Q4. Investment rose 7.5% y/y in Q1, up 1.7 pps from the lowest growth rate of 2017 (seen in Q3). However, the price-adjusted investment growth rate rose only 1.2%...

We waited so long
CHILE · Presentation · 30 Apr 2018

After four years of slow growth, the economy seems to be recovering. While low investment and flat credit are caveats, the central bank is almost ready to hike.

EL SALVADOR: Critical political developments
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

Political developments remain critical in El Salvador. The March 1st congressional elections revealed the weaknesses of the leftist ruling party FMLN, reflecting dissatisfaction with its leadership for two consecutive presidential terms. Whether or not the political environment will help unlock k...

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